Lower interest rates, strong dairy and meat prices, and Government cuts to excessive red tape have delivered a big lift in farmer confidence.
“Farming families have been through some really tough years recently and that’s weighed heavily on our rural communities,” Federated Farmers president Wayne Langford says.
“For the last few seasons, we’ve been farming with sky-high interest rates, rising on-farm costs, fluctuating incomes, and a web of red tape that felt near impossible to navigate.
“It’s great to see our July survey showing many farmers are feeling a whole lot more positive, thanks to better returns, lower interest rates, and easing inflation.
“We’ve also seen a Government that’s been willing to work with farmers and scrap some of the most unworkable, impractical rules that were killing the rural economy.”
Langford says lifting farmers’ confidence has been his number one focus since stepping into the role as president and he’s taken that responsibility seriously.
“We took a long hard look at what was concerning farmers the most back in 2023 and came out with 12 key policy changes for the next government to implement.
“We called it a ‘roadmap for restoring farmer confidence’ and we’ve been absolutely relentless in pursuing the changes we knew would make the biggest difference behind the farm gate.
“That list included fixing unworkable freshwater rules, getting RMA reform right, urgently reviewing our methane reduction targets, and rethinking the rules for carbon forestry.
“The Government has really listened to farmers, got stuck in making some much-needed changes, and they’ve essentially ticked 11 of those 12 policy priorities off the list.”
The Farm Confidence survey found farmer perceptions of current economic conditions have risen to their highest level in almost a decade.
A net 33% of respondents believe conditions are currently good, a dramatic turnaround from the record low of -66% just a year ago, and up from 2% in January this year.
Meanwhile, current farm profitability has reached its highest level ever recorded in the survey, with a net 65% of farmers feeling confident about profitability – up 12 points since January.
Langford says it’s important to note that not all farmers are feeling positive, with arable farmers in particular continuing to face significant headwinds and challenges.
“Many arable farmers aren’t even breaking even, and let’s not forget the farmers in Nelson Tasman who are facing a very long recovery after the recent flooding.”
The survey found that while confidence in current conditions is high, the forward-looking indicators have started to soften.
A net 6% of farmers expect economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months – still in positive territory, but well down from 23% in January.
Future profitability expectations are also softer, sitting at a net 18%, down from 31% earlier this year.
The dairy sector led the decline, with expectations dropping 32 points, likely due to concerns about poorer milk prices, while meat and wool remains most upbeat.
“There's still plenty of uncertainty on the horizon,” Langford says.
“Commodity price volatility, arable sector struggles, and global market jitters are making farmers a bit more cautious about what’s coming.”
Despite global uncertainty, farmers remain focused on strengthening their financial footing, with 43% planning to reduce debt in the next 12 months, almost double from a year ago.
“Farmers are using the breathing room from lower interest rates and improved profitability to pay down debt and build resilience. That’s smart business,” Langford says.
The survey also found hiring challenges have eased slightly, with a net 14% of farmers reporting difficulty recruiting staff in the past six months – the most favourable result since 2012.
“Immigration settings have improved and that’s helping farmers get the skilled and motivated people we need,” Langford says.
The results show rural mental health has been continuously improving too, moving from a net 52% negative in January 2023, to net 26% positive in July 2025.
When asked about their biggest concerns, regulation and compliance costs remain the number one concern, followed by climate change policy and the Emissions Trading Scheme in second, and local government and rates in third.
In terms of what they want from central government, farmers are calling for a focus on fiscal policy, regulation and compliance costs, and the economy and business environment.
“This survey really highlights the progress we’ve made in just 12 months,” Langford says.
“Arable growers are still doing it tough, but there’s a noticeable lift in confidence across the board. That’s something that needs to be celebrated and built upon.
“Federated Farmers are getting some real traction now, but we’ve got to keep the foot down to make sure farmer confidence keeps climbing and the economy keeps growing.”
