Source: EMA
Employment Research – Strategic hiring, rising pay pressures and a borderless workforce – Robert Walters
Robert Walters identifies New Zealand's key labour and salary trends for 2026
Auckland, New Zealand, 18th Feb 2026 - 2026 will be a year of strategic hiring, increased pressure on salaries, and rising workforce mobility across New Zealand, according to new research from global talent solutions partner Robert Walters.
The findings come from its latest Salary Guide, launching today, which surveyed over 2,300 white-collar New Zealand professionals across 12 different industries.
Shay Peters, CEO, Robert Walters Australia & New Zealand: ”The New Zealand labour market is showing a renewed sense of optimism, but caution remains. Businesses are hiring again, skills shortages persist, and employees are carefully weighing where they work, what they earn, and whether to relocate. This combination is reshaping the workforce: organisations face pressure to attract and retain talent, address capability gaps, and balance pay with cost-of-living concerns, while employees are increasingly strategic about career moves and mobility. How companies respond now will have a direct impact on productivity, growth, and their ability to secure and retain the talent they need for success in the future.”
Key labour market trends
Hiring rebounds, but jobseekers remain cautious after 2025 turmoil
Market confidence is gradual but strengthening, with 76% of New Zealand businesses planning to hire in 2026, up from 66% in 2025.
Hiring demand varies regionally. Canterbury leads hiring intent at 78%, followed by Auckland (75%) and Wellington (72%).
Despite this uplift in business confidence, employee mobility has cooled. 53% of New Zealand professionals are considering a role change this year, down from 63% in 2025, suggesting a more cautious workforce.
Shay comments: ”Hiring intent has increased since last year, signalling that businesses are ready to move forward. However, employees are taking a more considered approach. From conversations we've been having with job seekers, we know the unstable condition of the 2025 labour market is making people concerned about job prospects in 2026. Economic uncertainty over the past year has made many professionals very risk-aware. The labour market is gradually rebalancing, rather than surging.”
Salary growth remains modest as cost-of-living pressures persist
In 2025, 57% of New Zealand professionals received a pay rise, although most increases fell within the modest 2.5%-5% range, limiting their real impact.
67% of New Zealand businesses intend to offer salary increases in 2026, while 56% of professionals expect one.
42% of employees feel underpaid, but 83% of employers believe salaries are keeping pace with the cost of living, highlighting a perception gap.
Salary dissatisfaction varies regionally. In Canterbury, 46% of professionals do not believe their salary matches the cost of living. In Auckland this stands at 42%, and in Wellington 39%.
Shay comments: ”As businesses come out of last year's restructures, organisations have an opportunity to reassess remuneration. Where salary increases are not feasible, employers must focus on career progression, flexibility, and skills development. It's no secret the movement of New Zealand talent to Australia is well underway. Dissatisfaction around pay is a high retention risk, especially as overseas markets actively target New Zealand talent.”
Skills shortages squeeze productivity across key sectors
Skills shortages remain critical, with 81% of New Zealand employers experiencing gaps over the past year.
Regional pressure varies, with 52% of Auckland employers reporting shortages, followed by Wellington (49%) and Canterbury (39%).
The most acute gaps are in industry-specific expertise (52%), digital and technology capability (37%), and leadership skills (31%) - these areas closely linked to productivity and organisational performance.
Hiring challenges are compounded by unsuitable applicants (62%) and a lack of formal qualifications (53%).
Shay comments: ”Skills shortages are a severe productivity issue. When capability gaps persist, delivery slows and growth opportunities are missed.
New Zealand organisations must take a long-term view, investing in leadership development, digital capability, and structured workforce planning. Skills gaps directly impact productivity and growth, and with more talent continuing to move to Australia, this challenge will intensify unless decisive action is taken now. Waiting for the market to correct itself is no longer a viable strategy in a competitive global talent landscape.”
AI adoption accelerates, but concerns remain
AI integration is gaining momentum. 86% of New Zealand businesses are actively promoting AI, and 70% of employers say AI skills are important.
Adoption at employee level is already high, with 69% using AI in their roles. However, 51% express concern about AI's future impact on their job.
Shay comments: ”New Zealand businesses are embracing AI at pace, but adoption must be matched with transparency and training. The fact that over half of employees are concerned about AI's future impact highlights the importance of clear communication and structured upskilling.
At the speed AI is developing, it's critical that soft skills like leadership, collaboration, and problem-solving are not lost but actively encouraged alongside new technology.
Done right, AI can increase efficiency, boost productivity, and complement human talent, supporting the goals outlined in New Zealand's 2025 AI Strategy for a productive, future-ready workforce.”
Rising relocation trends are creating a borderless workforce
Mobility remains a defining feature of the New Zealand workforce. 58% of professionals are open to relocating for work.
Interest varies regionally. In Auckland, 64% would consider relocating, compared with 53% in Wellington and 51% in Canterbury.
Australia is the most attractive destination, with 65% naming it as their top choice. Domestically, 54% would consider relocating within New Zealand. Internationally, 23% would consider moving to the UK and 21% to Europe.
The primary drivers of relocation are higher salaries (71%), better job opportunities (65%), lifestyle changes (53%), and cost of living (38%).
Interest in Australians relocating to New Zealand has increased this year to 17% (up from 2% in 2025).
Shay comments: ”The strength of interest in Australia underscores how interconnected the two labour markets have become. For many professionals, relocation is no longer aspirational, it is a strategic financial and career decision.
New Zealand employers must recognise that they are competing not just locally, but internationally. Organisations that create compelling career pathways, competitive remuneration and flexible work models will be better positioned to retain talent in an increasingly borderless market.”
About the Salary Guide: The Robert Walters 2026 Salary Guide provides a comprehensive overview of hiring intentions, salary trends, skills shortages, and workforce mobility across New Zealand. With insights from over 2,300 respondents, the guide highlights how businesses and employees are navigating an evolving labour market shaped by cost-of-living pressures, technological adoption, and mobility opportunities.
About Robert Walters:
With more than 3,100 people in 30 countries, Robert Walters delivers recruitment consultancy, staffing, recruitment process outsourcing and managed services across the globe. From traditional recruitment and staffing to end-to-end talent management, our consultants are experts at matching highly skilled people to permanent, contract and interim roles across all professional disciplines.
Housing Market – Subdued start to 2026 as NZ housing market begins rebuilding confidence – Cotality
New Zealand’s property market has started 2026 in a subdued fashion with little movement in prices and lower sales transactions despite improved affordability, more favourable mortgage rates and a gradually strengthening economy.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the flat performance in property values may disappoint some vendors, but it offers improved opportunities for buyers.
“The predictability of current conditions is reassuring for buyers, who are continuing to adjust to the recent experience of stable prices and lower mortgage rates,” Mr Davidson said.
“With affordability gradually improving and employment conditions set to strengthen slowly this year, there’s a growing sense of cautious optimism, even if the recovery will be measured rather than sharp. Debt to income ratio caps remain important to watch.”
Cotality data shows first home buyers’ market share dipped in January from 28.3% in Q4 to 26.2%, however Mr Davidson said the number of deals occurring remained strong. “This was a slightly smaller share of a bigger pie.”
Mortgaged multiple property owners, including ‘Mum and Dad’ investors, were also a steady influence in the market likely due to lower interest rates and reduced cashflow top-ups on rental properties.
Softer sales in January likely a blip in upwards trend
January sales volumes, measured across both private deals and real estate agents, were -10.7% below the same month in 2025, marking only the third fall in the past 33 months.
Mr Davidson was unconcerned about the sluggish start to the year, because there’s a suspicion that some deals may have been rushed through into December (which saw strong growth), artificially subduing the figures for January.
“If you take December and January together, the upwards trend remained in place. We’d expect to see more sales growth activity in 2026 on the back of reduced mortgage rates and a recovering economy,” he said.
“Our Buyer Classification data also showed hints of more activity from relocating owner-occupiers, or movers. It’s early days and not a trend yet. But a slowly recovering economy could lift movers’ confidence to trade up, reinforcing the prospect of more housing activity this year.”
Rents reset after years of growth
New Zealand’s rental market has softened as net migration has fallen sharply and the number of properties available to rent remains elevated. With rents already stretched relative to incomes and wage growth easing, Mr Davidson said there is limited scope for further increases and that recent falls, while rare, reflect a reset after a period of very strong growth.
The MBIE bonds data shows in the three months to December the median national rent was 0.8% lower than the same period a year earlier. Wellington recorded one of the most significant changes in median rent, down about 10% to $582 a week. Hamilton and Tauranga have also recorded declines, while Auckland has edged slightly lower. Christchurch and Dunedin have held up better with modest growth recorded.
“Rents rose quickly when migration was surging and supply was tight. Now there are more listings, population growth has slowed, and tenants simply don’t have the capacity to keep absorbing large increases,” he said.
“It’s hard to see a sharp rebound from here. The more likely path is a period of flat or only very modest growth while the market adjusts.”
Confidence slowly rebuilding
As lower mortgage rates and improved affordability begin to provide some confidence for both buyers and sellers, Mr Davidson said it was likely behaviour would shift, activity would improve and 2026 would be a year of gradual growth for sales and prices.
“Affordability has improved to its best position in several years, mortgage rates have eased, and listings are gradually drifting lower. Those factors combined are helping to steady the market and should support a lift in sales activity through 2026,” he said.
“Other considerations include borrowers who are rolling off higher fixed rates onto cheaper loans, which will help free up cashflow for some households and should the labour market slowly gather steam as expected, that sets the scene for modest price growth rather than a sharp rebound.”
The Cotality NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack, February 2025 provides the latest breakdown of sales, listings, mortgage lending activity, buyer classification, property values, rental trends, and economic indicators.
Home Finance – ASB announces Kāinga Ora First Home Loan offering to help Kiwi into their first home
ASB Bank will now offer the Kāinga Ora First Home Loan, marking another step in the bank’s commitment to making home ownership accessible for more New Zealanders.
The First Home Loan is designed for people who can afford regular mortgage repayments but are finding it difficult to save a 20% deposit. Instead of the standard deposit, eligible buyers can purchase their first home with just 5%, with the loan underwritten by Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities.
ASB Executive General Manager Personal Banking Adam Boyd says “Home ownership is a cornerstone of financial wellbeing and security for many New Zealanders. This loan helps to get more people into their own homes without the challenge of saving a large deposit while managing everyday expenses, like rent.”
“By offering the First Home Loan, we’re helping to break down one of the biggest barriers to homeownership and opening doors for more New Zealanders to create their future and put down roots in their communities.”
“We’re committed to walking alongside our customers through one of the biggest financial decisions they’ll make. As well as the Kainga Ora First Home Loan, we have a team of trained specialist lenders to help customers on their journey,” says Adam Boyd.
Eligible customers who have been contributing to KiwiSaver for at least three years may also be able to withdraw their savings to put towards their home purchase and will be eligible for ASB’s First Home Buyer cashback offer.
For more information about ASB’s First Home Loan offering and full eligibility criteria, visit here: https://www.asb.co.nz/home-loans-mortgages/buying-first-home/first-home-loan.html
BusinessNZ – Better employment law will support job growth
Source: BusinessNZ
Annual food prices increase 4.6 percent – Selected price indexes: January 2026 – Stats NZ news story and information release
Births to under-25s decline to record low proportion – Births and deaths: Year ended December 2025 (including abridged period life table) – Stats NZ news story and information release
Legislation – Dark day for workers as Parliament passes bill that strips away job security – PSA
Source: PSA
Legislation – Darkest day in decades for NZ workers’ rights as ERA Bill passes – Workers First Union
Source: Workers First Union
Energy Efficiency – Hot water heat pumps a faster, lower-cost alternative to risky LNG imports – Ecobulb
An energy efficiency expert is urging the Government to prioritise hot water heat pumps as one immediate and cost-effective response to New Zealand's energy crisis, backing views in a new report that importing LNG would increase energy prices and expose the country to volatile international markets.
A New Zealand Green Building Council report warns that importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) would require significant taxpayer subsidies and likely place sustained upward pressure on gas and electricity prices. International experience – including in eastern Australia – shows that linking domestic supply to global gas markets can dramatically increase generation costs, accelerating industrial decline and job losses.
(ref. https://nzgbc.org.nz/news-and-media/lng-imports-would-lock-kiwis-into-higher-energy-bills-for-decades-when-more-secure-options-are-ready-now )
New Zealand doesn't need to take that risk, says Ecobulb Managing Director Dr Chris Mardon.
“Before we spend hundreds of millions subsidising imported gas, we could fix the biggest, most remedial source of household energy waste – hot water,” says Mardon. “Hot water heat pumps are proven technology that can slash electricity use by up to 70 percent compared to traditional electric cylinders, and completely remove the need for gas water heating.”
Hot water typically accounts for around a third of household energy consumption. Replacing ageing electric or gas water heaters with high-efficiency heat pump systems delivers permanent demand reduction – lowering peak loads and easing pressure on the national grid.
According to the NZGBC's analysis, widespread adoption of efficient electric technologies, including hot water heat pumps and rooftop solar, could offset a significant portion of the energy shortfall that LNG imports are intended to address – without exposing New Zealand to global fuel price volatility.
“If all new homes built had rooftop solar and all new residential hot water systems sold were heat pumps, by 2030 more electricity would be being generated and saved than the LNG terminal would provide,” Mardon said. “That's energy we don't have to generate, import, or subsidise.”
Unlike LNG infrastructure, which creates a centralised point of failure and ties prices to international markets, hot water heat pumps are distributed assets installed in thousands of homes across the country.
“Distributed efficiency is inherently more resilient,” Mardon said. “Every home that upgrades, reduces national demand. That lowers wholesale price pressure and protects households from future energy shocks.”
The report also highlights that LNG imports would likely increase the marginal cost of electricity generation, pushing up power prices even in normal years. Higher energy input costs would further strain manufacturers and gas-intensive industries.
Mardon says improving hot water efficiency is a direct way to reduce both household living costs and system-wide demand.
“Energy we don't use is the cheapest energy of all. A hot water heat pump delivers guaranteed, ongoing savings for families – year after year – without requiring permanent government subsidies.”
The NZGBC report estimates that LNG imports would depend on substantial annual taxpayer support.
Ecobulb is calling for those funds to instead be redirected into targeted grants or financing support for hot water heat pump installations, particularly for low- and middle-income households. The NZGBC report says that rooftop solar should also be supported.
“Instead of subsidising imported fuel, we could invest in permanent bill reductions for Kiwi families,” said Mardon. “That strengthens energy security, supports local installation jobs, and reduces long-term system costs.”
Mardon says the pathway forward is clear.
“Hot water heat pumps are available now. They're efficient, scalable, and already proven in thousands of New Zealand homes. If we're serious about reducing energy costs and protecting our economy, accelerating the transition to hot water heat pumps is one of the smartest steps we can take.”
About Ecobulb
Ecobulb is a New Zealand-owned energy efficiency company specialising in lighting and high-performance hot water heat pump systems for residential and commercial applications, helping households reduce energy use, cut power bills, and transition away from fossil fuels.
