Economy – Four Long-term Fiscal Statement background papers published by Treasury

Source: The Treasury

The Treasury has published four analytical papers to support the Treasury’s 2025 Long-term Fiscal Statement (LTFS). These papers contribute to the evidence base underpinning public discussion of New Zealand’s long-term fiscal sustainability.
The LTFS considers a wide range of possible responses to long-term fiscal pressures, including changes to revenue and expenditure. The background papers published today provide more technical detail on modelling approaches and policy scenarios, complementing the material presented in the LTFS.
These publications examine the fiscal implications of an ageing population, transnational migration patterns, and consider alternative tax strategies to meet impending fiscal pressures. The Treasury's newly-developed overlapping generations model is documented in a Working Paper and two of the Analytical Notes investigate strategies for reforming tax policies to maintain fiscal sustainability. The fourth paper uses descriptive statistics to explore the transnational dynamics of migration and the fiscal contributions of foreign-born residents.
The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in these papers are strictly those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these papers. The papers are presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

QV – Fuel spike begins to bite as construction costs hold steady

Source: Quality Valuation (QV)

Construction cost increases remain mostly modest, but a sharp rise in fuel prices is causing upward pressure in the short term.

CostBuilder is New Zealand’s most comprehensive online subscription-based building cost platform. In its latest monthly update, more than 11,000 current material prices were applied to its extensive database of construction rates across Auckland, Hamilton, Palmerston North, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin.

The update shows overall cost escalation remains relatively contained, with elemental and trade rates both increasing by an average of 0.4% in a month.

However, rapidly rising diesel prices have begun to flow through into construction costs, particularly in fuel-intensive areas of work.

At a trade level, excavation recorded the most significant increase, rising 7.8%, while piling (1.4%) and demolition (1.3%) also increased – largely due to the recent surge in diesel prices.

Site preparation and substructure costs also increased by 2% and 1.8% respectively due to rising diesel rates, with exterior works up 1% in a month.

QV CostBuilder spokesperson and experienced quantity surveyor Martin Bisset said fuel was the key cost driver currently.

“The increase in the price of diesel has had an immediate impact on areas such as site preparation, excavation and substructure work, where fuel is a significant input for machinery used in these operations. That’s where the most upward pressure on construction costs is coming from right now.”

The rise in fuel costs comes amid increasing global oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East, which is also affecting supply routes and lifting freight and energy costs internationally.

Mr Bisset said that while the recent fuel spike was significant, its full impact on overall building costs was not yet clear.

“New Zealand is particularly exposed to changes in fuel and shipping costs, so recent geopolitical events in the Middle East are relevant for the local construction sector, and they will inevitably have an effect,” he said.

“At this stage, we can see the effect at a trade and elemental level, but the impact on total building costs per square metre hasn’t yet been captured. We expect to have a clearer picture of that in our next CostBuilder update.”

In the meantime, he said the current environment differs from the sharp and sustained cost escalation experienced during the Covid-19 period.

“We’re not seeing the widespread supply chain disruption of recent years, but fuel and freight are certainly re-emerging as important cost drivers.”

“It’s important to recognise that this appears to be a short-term spike at this stage. At some point, fuel prices are expected to normalise, and that should ease some of the pressure coming through.”

More broadly, construction cost movements remain mixed. The latest update also recorded increases in materials such as plasterboard, insulation and some timber products, while some copper and steel pipework declined in price.

Mr Bisset said the market remained relatively balanced overall, but with a higher degree of uncertainty.

“The key takeaway is that cost growth is still relatively moderate, but volatility has increased,” he concluded.

Visit QV CostBuilder at costbuilder.qv.co.nz.

Health and Employment – Te Whatu Ora must come clean over new uniforms

Source: New Zealand Nurses Organisation

Te Whatu Ora must explain why its rolling out new uniforms for nurses and health care assistants nationwide at a time when patients are struggling to get the care they need because of short-staffing and under-resourcing, NZNO says.
In an internal email seen by NZNO, Te Whatu Ora has told staff: “The uniform changes are part of a wider effort to create nationally consistent systems and standards across Health NZ and build a more unified, modern health system where patients and staff experience the same high standards wherever they are in the country”.
Tōpūtanga Tapuhi Kaitiaki o Aotearoa NZNO delegate and Waikato Hospital nurse Tracy Chisholm says members are questioning the timing and cost of the new uniforms.
“Everyday nurses and health care assistants arrive at work to face short-staffed wards and old under-resourced systems in rundown and no longer fit-for-purpose buildings.
“Staff vacancies aren’t being filled and IT failures at Te Whatu Ora facilities are occurring weekly, if not daily.
“We have been fighting for safe staffing, and a cost-of-living wage increase through our collective agreement bargaining for the past 18 months.
“The timing of now – four years after the DHBs were merged – is questionable,” Tracy Chisholm says.
“Te Whatu Ora should reveal how much the new uniforms are costing and explain why they are being prioritised over employing more nurses and health care assistants and fixing our crumbling hospitals.
“More health workers will ensure patients can get the heath care they need which should be a priority, not shiny new uniforms,” Tracy Chisholm says.  

Media – Iwi radio network challenges crippling cuts to funding

Source: Vanessa Bidois | Ngahuia Wade

29 Māehe | March 2026 – The national Māori radio network is contemplating litigation if the Crown follows through on drastic cost cuts to iwi stations.

In an unprecedented move, Te Whakaruruhau o Ngā Reo Irirangi Māori o Aotearoa has presented an ultimatum to the Government – engage and negotiate a resolution to avoid legal action.

Chair Peter-Lucas Jones (Ngāti Kahu, Te Rārawa, Ngāi Takoto, Te Aupōuri) – who is also chief executive of far North iwi broadcaster Te Hiku Media – says Māori radio is a right under Te Tiriti o Waitangi, not a government handout.

Peter-Lucas Jones says recent and proposed actions targeting iwi stations, implemented primarily through Te Māngai Pāho (TMP), disregards the treaty and exposes the Crown to credible legal risk.

Any cutbacks will only lead to the demise of Māori radio.

“This issue is not about resisting change,” he explains. “Iwi radio stations have themselves funded transitions to digital platforms and new media without Crown support.

“The issue is whether the Crown can, through an intermediary, dismantle a treaty remedy without Māori consent.”

He whakapapa

Through the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, Ngā Tamatoa, Ngā Kaiwhakapūmau i te Reo Māori and the New Zealand Māori Council among others took a range of cases concerning Māori language and broadcasting to the Waitangi Tribunal, High Court, Court of Appeal and Privy Council.

The turning point came in 1987 when te reo Māori was recognised as an official language by the Māori Language Act, opening the door for dedicated iwi radio pūtea.

New Zealand On Air funded the first wave of Māori radio stations until TMP was established under the Broadcasting Amendment Act 1993, giving life to the Waitangi Tribunal assertion that te reo Māori is a taonga requiring active protection by the Crown under the treaty.

Since then, TMP has included funding for iwi radio as well as news and current affairs in its strategies to revitalise and grow te reo Māori.

Ngā take

The iwi radio network has been grappling with a wide range of issues:

Rapidly changing audience expectation and emerging technologies:

Ability and agility of the Māori media sector to adapt to changing audience demands and technology – relating to inflexible legislation, funding, workforce development and impetus for change.

Numerous siloed media outlets:

Each doing their own thing for its own primarily Māori audience share – impacts on audience reach, quality and range of content. Money invested across the sector is not being maximised.

Low budget programming and low audience share:

Media outlets are spread too thinly across dispersed audiences. Inequitable funding of Māori media vis-a-vis public media.

Iwi reo differentiation and low audience share:

Recognising iwi dialectical differences and desire for iwi to be able to engage with their own members, in the face of the cost of delivering relevant programming to a small audience share.

Preservation and access:

Fragmented holdings; lack of funding for active preservation/holding; and different holding, access and use arrangements.

Workforce development:

Inadequate investment in workforce development affecting the ability to grow and retain a skilled workforce.

Media lifelines:

Support for iwi media in communicating with Māori and other communities during times of emergency.

Limited commercial advertising markets:

Collective advertising through a Māori-owned agency is barely viable. Advertising inconsistent with kaupapa Māori values such as fast food is rejected.

More recently, iwi radio stations have become aware of the following Crown actions and intentions:

Baseline funding reductions:

Stations have been advised of potential cuts of 25 to 30 per cent to baseline funding for 2026/27. They say any reduction threatens the survivability of iwi radio stations.

Reduction of contestable programming funding:

A separate contestable programming fund — relied upon disproportionately by high-performing stations — is also under threat. According to iwi radio owners, this wil penalise excellence and accelerate collapse among the strongest broadcasters.

Regional news hubs:

Regional news hubs were initiated by Te Māngai Pāho but there was no formal consultation with iwi radio owners. Māori radio was invited to apply for hub funding but were not co-designers of the model. Key features of the model include editorial control resting with the hub, not iwi radio; stations expected to support hub operations; and geographic grouping that does not reflect iwi philosophy, tikanga or operating models.

Hui ā rāngai pāpāho

TMP has been consulting with Māori media including the network’s 20 stations over how it will collectively manage the loss of $16 million in time limited funding from 1 July.

While 2026/27 appropriations will not be confirmed until the Budget announcement in late May, TMP released a discussion document earlier this year outlining five scenarios and potential impacts in anticipation of losing 25 per cent of its total budget.

In its stakeholder pānui last week, TMP Kaihautū Larry Parr thanked everyone who had made submissions to date.

“At this stage, while we are still gathering sector feedback, we anticipate a transition year that maintains the status quo as much as possible while allowing us to prepare and undertake the work necessary.

“The strongest outcomes of our strategy will be what we can collectively achieve for te reo Māori.”

Board members and kaimahi at TMP will share their updated strategic approach during an in person and online consultation wānanga in Tāmaki Makaurau on 21 April.

After Budget 2026, future funding priorities will be approved by the Board and a Statement of Performance Expectations published.

Ngā mahi e whai ake nei

In a briefing paper tabled with the Prime Minister and key Cabinet ministers, Te Whareruruhau is lobbying for:

Direct Crown engagement with iwi owners, independent of TMP

Negotiations to confirm sufficient baseline funding per station

An increase of at least $82,000 per station to allow for inflation since there has been no adjustment since 2022

A working group set up to determine how to fund the transition to digital platforms to ensure the Government meets its treaty obligation – up until now, iwi radio have been funding their own transition to digital and new media without Crown support

An opportunity to work with the Government to ensure important messages – from immunisation to road safety – reach their audiences.

Iwi radio owners have requested face-to-face hui with TMP to enable a ‘co-designed solution’.

Peter-Lucas Jones says a resourced, co-designed work programme needs to scope out the iwi radio treaty remedy and how it should be reconfigured, with the agreement and active participation of Māori radio.

“We have lodged a request for this work as it is necessary given the current uncertainty within TMP regarding iwi radio treaty rights and the obligations to actively uphold them.

“It also means Te Whakaruruhau is able to equitably participate.”

An inaugural Board member of TMP who played a key role in the establishment of iwi radio, lawyer Annette Sykes, along with Matthew Smith KC, have been retained by Te Whakaruruhau as its senior legal advisors.

He kōrero o te Karauna

Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka provided a written response to Te Whakaruruhau’s briefing paper on behalf of the Government in February.

Potaka acknowledged the key role that iwi radio continues to play in reflecting local mita (dialects), stories and cultural identity as well as a trusted form of communication for local communities.

He also recognised that the Crown has a duty under the treaty to actively protect te reo Māori as a taonga.

While unable to discuss Budget 2026, his expectation was that entities manage operations within baselines and seek opportunities for greater value-for-money.

“Te Māngai Pāho is an autonomous Crown entity and make their own decisions about how they use funding provided by the Crown. Those decisions must clearly achieve their statutory purpose to promote Māori language and culture.

“The Crown does not have an obligation to consult Māori separately on Te Māngai Pāho’s proposals and cannot direct Te Māngai Pāho on whom to consult with or how to consult, as this is an operational decision for Te Māngai Pāho.

“The Crown’s role is to set the level of funding for Māori media entities like Te Māngai Pāho.”

Peter-Lucas Jones says iwi stations unanimously agreed at a special general meeting that they would not accept any decrease in funding and would consider legal action in response to any cutbacks.

The New Zealand Māori Council, Ngā Kaiwhakapūmau o te Reo Māori and the Iwi Chairs Forum have also pledged their unanimous support.

“Decisions taken by TMP that materially affect iwi radio funding, structure or autonomy remain Crown actions for treaty purposes.

“The Crown cannot discharge its Treaty obligations by delegation and then rely on that delegation to insulate itself from responsibility.”

RUKU is a new current affairs series in production by Te Noni Ltd with funding from Te Māngai Pāho.

New Poll Shows More than 8 Out of 10 People Support Bringing Dental into Public Healthcare System

Source: ActionStation

A new poll shows a strong majority of people in New Zealand support bringing dental care into the public healthcare system, with that strong support existing across the political spectrum.

A Talbot Mills poll of over 1000 New Zealand adults showed 83% of people answered yes to the question, “Do you support dental care being brought into the public healthcare system?”

88% of Labour voters supported the move, alongside 78% of National voters. Women (87%) were more likely to support the move than men (79%).

“This poll is the latest in a series of developments showing growing public momentum behind plugging the gap in our healthcare system that leaves out dental care,” says Hana Pilkinton-Ching, campaigner for Dental for All, which commissioned the poll. (ref. https://www.dentalforall.nz/ )

“Dental is carved out of our public healthcare system because some dentists lobbied in 1938 to keep dental out,” adds Pilkinton-Ching, “but more and more people in New Zealand recognise that our mouths are part of our bodies, oral health is health, and it makes no sense for our healthcare system to keep excluding dental.”

At present, dental is free for under-18s, but is largely privatised for adults. A $1000 grant for essential dental care is available from Work & Income, though that grant is means-tested.

The same poll also tested support for dental care being free, with similarly strong results. 80% of people polled – including 76% of National voters and 87% of Labour voters (as well as 85% of Green voters and 79% of ACT voters) – supported free dental care for adults.

“A 2023 poll showed that 74% of people supported free dental,” observes Harriet Wild, Policy & Research Director at the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, the union representing senior dentists and doctors.

“This poll shows public support continues to build to bring dental into our public healthcare system,” adds Wild. “It makes human sense, it makes economic sense, and this polling confirms that the move would be an incredibly popular one among the wider voting public.”

A recent Dental for All report, completed by FrankAdvice, showed that keeping dental out of the public healthcare system is costing New Zealand $2.5 billion in lost productivity per year and $3.1 billion per year in reduced quality of life. Estimates of the cost of bringing dental into the public healthcare system generally range between $1 billion and $2 billion annually. (ref. https://www.dentalforall.nz/s/FrankAdvice_report_for_Dental_for_All_Coalition.pdf )

Dental for All will shortly release, later in April 2026, a costed plan for an integrated oral health service for children and adults.

Notes:

Polling conducted by Talbot Mills Research surveyed 1060 individuals (using nationally representative respondents 18 years and over).

The maximum sampling error is 3.1%. Fieldwork was conducted between 12 and 24 March 2026.

ASB Research – New Zealanders back upcoming KiwiSaver contribution increases, even amid global market uncertainty

Source: ASB

 

  • 51% of New Zealanders surveyed plan to increase KiwiSaver contributions, with 19% already contributing 3.5% or more 
  • 52% of Kiwi are supportive of the upcoming changes 
  • 1 in 4 New Zealanders aged 18-24 unaware of any changes to KiwiSaver 

New ASB research shows most Kiwi support upcoming increases to KiwiSaver contribution rates, with many already contributing more or planning to increase their contribution once the new settings take effect, even as global market uncertainty continues. 

The KiwiSaver contribution rate changes are due to take effect from 1 April 2026, with default contribution rates for both employees and employers increasing from 3% to 3.5%, and 4% from April 2028, but KiwiSaver members can apply to stay on the lower rate temporarily.

Over half of respondents (51%) said they plan to move to the new default contribution rate of 3.5%, while a further 19% said they are already contributing at that level or higher and 5% plan to increase to a rate higher than 3.5%. 15% have said they will look to remain at 3%, and 10% indicated they plan to stop contributing altogether. 

ASB Senior Economist Chris Tennent-Brown says, “We know from previous research that about two‑thirds of Kiwi believe they need to be saving more for retirement, so it’s really positive to see that many are already making higher voluntary contributions to their KiwiSaver accounts, which shows confidence in long‑term saving goals despite short‑term uncertainty.” 

The survey was conducted in March 2026, during a period of global uncertainty and market volatility, making the findings particularly relevant.  

“Even in uncertain times, people recognise the value of staying the course. KiwiSaver is designed to reward long-term commitment, and these changes help strengthen retirement outcomes over time.” 

However, the research highlights a clear awareness gap, particularly among the younger demographic. While 57% of respondents said they were aware of both the upcoming KiwiSaver contribution rate changes and their timing, 17% said they were not aware of the changes at all, and a further 26% were aware a change was coming but not across the details. Awareness was particularly low among younger New Zealanders, with around one in four respondents aged 18–24 unaware the changes were coming. 

“According to our latest Investor Confidence report, younger New Zealanders show strong confidence in KiwiSaver as a way to build long-term wealth, even if they’re not across every detail of the policy changes. That’s important, because younger members stand to benefit the most over time from higher contributions.” says Chris. 

Despite these awareness gaps, sentiment towards the changes is broadly positive with 52% of New Zealanders surveyed supportive of the changes, 9% felt negatively, and the rest neutral.

Notes

  • Survey conducted March 2026 
  • Nationally representative sample (n=822) 
  • KiwiSaver members within sample: n=568

Economic snapshot: December 2025 quarter – Stats NZ news story

New Zealand cohort life tables: March 2026 update – Stats NZ information release

Northland News – Councils respond to Juken NZ Ltd announcement

Source: Northland Regional Council

JOINT MEDIA RELEASE – NORTHLAND REGIONAL COUNCIL AND FAR NORTH DISTRICT COUNCIL
Northland Regional Council (NRC) and Far North District Council (FNDC) acknowledge the uncertainty created by today’s announcement from Juken New Zealand Ltd as the company begins consultation on the future of its Kaitāia operations.
FNDC Mayor Moko Tepania says the news will be challenging for employees, their whānau, and the wider community.
“Any consultation of this nature creates understandable concern. We know this will be a difficult time for affected workers and their families.
“Our priority now is to understand the situation fully and work alongside Juken as they explore options in a very tough economic environment.”
Mayor Tepania says councils will also be seeking support from central government.
“Given the scale of the potential economic impact, we will be advocating strongly for government involvement.
“Councils cannot advocate for this alone, and we need all partners at the table.”
NRC Chair Pita Tipene says the councils, together with regional economic development agency Northland Inc, are committed to supporting Juken as it works through the consultation process.
“We have already had initial discussions with Juken and will continue to engage closely with them to understand what pathways may exist.
“We are willing to work together to investigate every avenue, advocate for our communities, and support efforts to secure a sustainable future for the operation in Kaitāia.”
Both councils acknowledge Juken New Zealand Ltd’s open and constructive approach, including its clear commitment to working in good faith throughout the process.
Northland Regional Council, Far North District Council, and Northland Inc will continue to collaborate closely as more information becomes available. 

Business – Manufacturing job losses highlight urgent need to back NZ made

Source: Buy NZ Made

The closure of the McCain processing plant and today’s announcement of 300 job losses at Wattie’s underscore the mounting pressure facing New Zealand’s manufacturing sector, Buy NZ Made says.
Executive Director Dane Ambler says today is a stark reminder that local producers are operating in an increasingly difficult environment with rising costs, weakening demand, and growing international competition placing sustained strain on businesses and jobs.
“A recent Buy NZ Made survey reveals the depth of the challenge. Almost half of respondents (46%) report rising operational costs, while more than a third (39%) say slow demand is impacting their performance. Together, these pressures are creating a perfect storm for local manufacturers, many of whom are already operating on tight margins.
“Behind every announcement like this are hundreds of families and communities impacted. These are not isolated events, they reflect broader structural challenges facing New Zealand manufacturing.
Ambler says now is the time for both Government and consumers to step up support for locally made products.
“We need stronger, more deliberate backing of New Zealand made goods and services. That includes government procurement policies that prioritise local suppliers, targeted support to ease compliance and cost pressures, and a clear strategy to strengthen domestic production.”
While supporting local is critical, the current economic climate is also shaping consumer behaviour.
“We know Kiwis want to buy local, but the reality is that times are still tough. Cost of living pressures mean many households are pulling back on spending, which is flowing directly through to reduced demand for locally made goods.”
Buy NZ Made is calling for a coordinated response that recognises both sides of the equation; supporting producers while acknowledging the financial constraints facing consumers.
“New Zealand manufacturing plays a vital role in our economy, from regional employment to supply chain resilience. If we don’t act now, we risk seeing more closures, more job losses, and a further erosion of our local capability.”
“This is about backing ourselves as a country. Supporting NZ made means supporting jobs, communities, and our economic independence.”