Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

March 25 2026 – Households, businesses and investors should prepare for 1970's-style global stagflation, warns the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organisations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group is speaking out after private sector output in the euro zone sank to a 10-month low in March, amid mounting evidence of the impact the Iran conflict is having on the global economy.

He says: “The figures show the severe impact the Iran war is already having on the euro zone economy.

“But, like in the 1970s, stagflation could become a widespread global phenomenon characterised by high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment, heavily driven by oil price shocks.

“Back then it hit most developed economies, including the US, Canada, Western Europe, and Japan, largely ending the post-war economic expansion, and it looks like a spectre that may be looming once again.”

Recent flash PMI data underscores the shift. Euro zone business activity has slowed sharply, with the headline index hovering just above the contraction threshold at 50.5, down from 51.9 the previous month.

Cost pressures are accelerating at the fastest pace in more than three years as energy prices surge and supply chains tighten.

“Oil and gas prices are feeding directly into production costs, transport, and ultimately consumer prices. At the same time, demand is weakening.

“This combination is toxic. Growth is fading just as inflation is being reignited. Central banks have very limited room to respond effectively,” explains the deVere CEO.

Energy markets have tightened rapidly since the escalation of tensions involving Iran, with crude prices pushing higher and shipping disruptions adding further strain.

“Europe and Asia remain particularly exposed due to its reliance on imported energy, leaving businesses vulnerable to sustained price volatility.”

He continues: “Investors need to recognise that traditional assumptions are breaking down. Bonds may not offer the same protection if inflation remains elevated. Equities face margin pressure as input costs rise and consumers pull back.

“Cash loses value in real terms in an inflationary environment. Standing still is not a strategy.”

The European Central Bank has already signalled weaker growth expectations for 2026, projecting sub-1% expansion, while inflation forecasts risk drifting higher if energy prices remain elevated.

Surveys indicate declining business confidence and softer hiring intentions, reinforcing concerns that the slowdown is gaining traction.

“Preparation is essential. Portfolios must be structured for resilience, not optimism. Investors should be increasing exposure to assets that historically perform in inflationary periods, including commodities, energy producers, and selective real assets.

“In terms of equities, the focus must shift to sectors with pricing power and strong balance sheets. Companies able to pass on higher costs without destroying demand will outperform.”

Currency markets are also likely to reflect the divergence in economic performance and policy responses.

Risk-sensitive currencies could come under pressure, while volatility across foreign exchange markets is expected to increase.

Nigel Green comments: “Diversification across currencies, geographies, asset classes and sectors becomes more important in this environment. Overconcentration in any single one increases vulnerability.”

Geopolitical risk now sits at the centre of the economic outlook. Prolonged conflict in the Middle East would sustain pressure on energy markets, while any escalation could trigger further supply disruptions.

Duration matters. A short-lived shock is manageable. A prolonged period of elevated energy prices changes the entire economic trajectory.

Policy makers are already facing difficult trade-offs. Raising rates to control inflation risks deepening the slowdown. Cutting rates to support growth risks fuelling further inflation. “Clearly, neither path is straightforward,” notes the CEO.

Nigel Green concludes: “Complacency is the biggest risk. Stagflation is not a theoretical scenario; the early signals are already visible in the data.

“Investors who act decisively, diversify intelligently, and prioritise real returns over nominal gains will be best positioned to protect and grow wealth in the period ahead.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Auckland, 25 March 2026: New minimum wage rates and KiwiSaver contribution changes will take effect across New Zealand from 1 April 2026, impacting employers, employees, and payroll processes nationwide.

Minimum Wage Increases

From 1 April, the Government has confirmed the following rates:

Adult Minimum Wage: $23.95 per hour
Starting‑Out Wage: $19.16 per hour
Training Wage: $19.16 per hour

These apply to all employees aged 16+, including part‑time, casual, fixed‑term, and remote workers. Minimum wage rules also extend to workers' earning commissions or piece rates.

Training wage eligibility: Employees aged 20+ completing 60 credits annually toward an approved industry qualification.
Starting‑out eligibility: Workers aged 16 – 19 who meet criteria such as being new to employment or undertaking relevant training.

KiwiSaver Changes

Also from 1 April:

Default contribution rate increases from 3% to 3.5% (first stage of a phased rise to 4% in 2028).
Employees may opt down to 3%, but contributions reset to the default after 12 months.
16‑ and 17‑year‑olds who opt for KiwiSaver will now receive compulsory employer contributions.

Ashlea Maley, Associate Director – Operations, Peninsula New Zealand, said: “The current economic climate is placing significant pressure on small businesses, with many facing rising payroll obligations at a time when operating conditions are already tough. We’re seeing a noticeable increase in employers seeking guidance, as the cost of getting things wrong – particularly around unfair dismissal and wage compliance – continues to rise.

“As wage theft has become a criminal offence, unintentional underpayments have much more dire consequences for small businesses now. We urge business owners to take this opportunity and review their internal systems and processes. With new regulations coming into effect, employers need to act cautiously, stay informed, and make sure every part of their operation is compliant.”

What Employers Need to Do

Employers are encouraged to:

• Update payroll systems for new wage and KiwiSaver settings
• Review employment agreements
• Communicate changes to staff, particularly young workers and trainees
• Ensure minimum wage increases are applied from the first full pay period after 1 April.

Non‑compliance may lead to arrears, penalties, or disputes.

Ashlea added that the pressure is intensifying as the end of the financial year approaches: “This EOFY period is proving to be one of the toughest we’ve seen in recent years. Businesses are making hard calls – letting staff go, restructuring, or in some cases closing their doors altogether. We’re supporting a growing number of employers navigating redundancies brought on by uncertainty and escalating costs.

“The message to business owners is clear: in this climate, compliance isn’t optional. It’s essential to protect your people, your operations, and the long‑term viability of your business.”

About Peninsula Australia
Peninsula is New Zealand and Australia’s leading workplace advisory firm for SMEs, advising more than 30,500 clients in New Zealand and Australia on workplace relations and workplace health & safety issues. Its advice line allows businesses to speak with its team of workplace relations specialists, and through onsite visits to their business.  

Wellington, New Zealand – New modelling released today in Re-Energise 26 shows New Zealand should grow its energy workforce, and grow it quickly, to deliver electrification and build a secure, resilient energy system.

Produced jointly by Energy Resources Aotearoa and the Electricity Engineers’ Association (EEA), Re-Energise 26 is the first report to map workforce needs across the full energy sector. The comprehensive data set was built using top-down and bottom-up inputs from government and energy sector sources and covers a workforce of over 13,800 full-time equivalent energy sector employees and more than 4,000 contractors and consultants.

The modelling identifies pressure points in critical roles, with major bottlenecks in supervision, mentoring and assessment. It shows that without more skilled people, New Zealand will struggle to electrify, cut emissions and maintain a secure, resilient energy system.

It calls for coordinated action across the sector to lift career visibility, strengthen training pathways and build a more diverse and highly skilled workforce.

“Technology alone will not deliver New Zealand’s energy future,” says Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie.

“Timing is critical for regions experiencing declining industries, where skilled workers are being displaced and risk being lost before new energy projects and opportunities come online.

It will take skilled people with the capacity to design, run and improve the system. If we want a more secure, lower-emissions energy future, our country needs to invest in the workforce that will make it happen.”

EEA Chief Executive Nicki Sutherland says energy security and reliability depend on experienced people and a strong pipeline of new talent.

“We need to think about investment in people as seriously as we do infrastructure to create the depth needed on our bench to achieve New Zealand’s secure energy future. And we need to be equipping our workforce with the right skills for a world that will be fundamentally different.”

Re-Energise 26 sets out an Industry Skills Action Plan built around four priorities: Attract, Develop, Collaborate and Retain.

To drive delivery, a Workforce Summit will be convened in May 2026, bringing energy sector organisations together to set priorities and assign delivery leads.

• The full report is available for download here: https://eea.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=33cb88bcfeae511526b8f88fb&id=b66ff1abcf&e=07a32e9901
• The summary report is available here: https://eea.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=33cb88bcfeae511526b8f88fb&id=de361924b1&e=07a32e9901
• and the Industry Skills Action Plan is available here: https://eea.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=33cb88bcfeae511526b8f88fb&id=7757d25767&e=07a32e9901

GenPro Chair Angus Chambers is calling for a more balanced and constructive conversation around the establishment of the new primary health organisation (PHO), amid what he describes as widespread negativity and misinformation within the sector.

“There has been quite a lot of catastrophising around the impact of a new PHO,” Chambers said. “The response from parts of the sector has been negative, instead of focusing on the opportunity to deliver greater national consistency, coherence, and support for general practice.”

Recent criticism claimed the new PHO will be highly disruptive which will “distract and destabilise” patient care, lead to job losses among clinicians, and reduce patient access to services. Chambers says those claims are overstated and not supported by the evidence.

“The new PHO has undertaken detailed mapping of services and contracts across the system. The reality is that very little will change in the next 12 to 18 months,” he said.

“Many providers are already operating under contracts outside of the PHO Services Agreement that extend for one, two, or even three years. These arrangements are not being torn up. The current contracts already provide stability, and contrary to the misinformation there is no immediate threat to services.”

Dr Chambers emphasised that maintaining continuity of care is a core priority.

“We do not want to break anything on the way through—because that is not helpful to patients. The ideal scenario is that patients notice very little change, other than their general practice becoming more viable and more robust over time.”

He also expressed concern about fear mongering directed at general practices.

“There has been messaging encouraging practices to be fearful about what they are signing up for, rather than supporting them to undertake clear and informed due diligence. That is not helpful to the sector or to patients.”

Dr Chambers pointed out that the recent establishment of new PHOs, which will work alongside 30 other, already established, PHOs, is not unprecedented.
   
“We’ve seen two PHOs established in the past year. Change is not new to this sector, and it can be managed in a way that strengthens primary care.”

He concluded by urging stakeholders to shift the tone of the conversation.

“This is an opportunity to build a stronger, more sustainable general practice system. We need to move away from worst-case scenarios and focus on what will actually deliver better outcomes for patients.”

Wellington, New Zealand – Access Matters Aotearoa (AMA) has released a major national report, highlighting entrenched accessibility barriers across Aotearoa, with calls for coordinated, system-wide reform.

Kōrero for Change: Insights and Actions brings together findings from ten national forums held across 2024 and 2025, drawing on the experiences of people living with a disability, alongside input from government, business, and community leaders.

The report finds the 17 per cent of New Zealanders who live with a disability face barriers in nearly every part of daily life, from accessing healthcare and education to finding work and suitable housing.

AMA Co-Chair Amy Hogan says accessibility remains inconsistent and often left to chance.

“Too often, whether someone can fully participate in everyday life depends on circumstance. This shouldn’t be the system we aspire to in New Zealand.”

The report identifies accessibility as a system-wide issue, with barriers arising from policy settings, funding decisions, and design choices that haven’t  prioritised inclusion.

It highlights stark disparities, including employment rates for people with a disability sitting at around 38 per cent compared with 78 per cent for non-disabled people, alongside significantly higher unmet health needs and ongoing shortages of accessible housing.

AMA Co-Chair Dr Rebekah Graham says these outcomes are the result of long-standing structural gaps.

“Inaccessibility is predictable and preventable. When accessibility is treated as an afterthought, exclusion becomes embedded across systems.”

The report sets out practical actions across ten sectors, including introducing enforceable accessibility standards, embedding accessibility in policy and design from the outset, and strengthening accountability across government and industry.

It also points to the economic cost of inaction, with modelling showing closing the employment gap could add hundreds of millions of dollars to the economy.

Hogan says the findings reinforce the need to treat accessibility as essential infrastructure.

“This is all about participation, productivity, and fairness. When systems are designed to support people with disabilities, they end up benefiting all Kiwis.”

Dr Graham says the report is intended to drive sustained action.

“This is about working towards an Aotearoa where people with a disability can participate fully in everyday life. This requires deliberate action, consistent standards, and leadership across every sector.”

About Access Matters Aotearoa

Access Matters Aotearoa is a solutions-driven, non-partisan advocacy trust working to secure strong accessibility legislation so everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand can participate fully.

“The Australian guidelines are simple, clear, and pick up on all the key points we know matter. Move more, sit less, and build activity into everyday life.  We are used to rivalry on the sporting field, now Australia is beating us with clear simple guidelines for wellness.”

“Importantly, they recognise that physical activity is not just about how much you do, but also the type, and part of overall wellbeing, something our sector has long championed.  It also gives the right focus to strength and balance activities – something that is often omitted or given little thought.”

“Ironically, the day these were released I was meeting with the CEO of our sister body in Australia, AusActive, at a global meeting in San Diego discussing greater global collaboration.” says Beddie “We don't need to reinvent the wheel on these guidelines.”

“New Zealand has an opportunity right now to take what Australia has done and go even further, incorporating our unique context, communities, and cultures.”  

“We strongly encourage the New Zealand Government to review and update our national physical activity guidelines so they are fit for today, not the past.”

“This is about more than guidelines; it's about helping all New Zealanders live healthier, more active lives in ways that work for them,”

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Exercise New Zealand welcomes the Australian Government's release of its updated national physical activity and wellness guidelines, calling them a clear, practical step forward, and urging Aotearoa New Zealand to follow suit.

The newly released Australian guidelines simplify how people understand movement, health, and wellbeing, placing a stronger emphasis on everyday activity, reducing sedentary behaviour, and supporting long-term healthy habits.

ExerciseNZ Chief Executive Richard Beddie says the updated approach reflects what the industry has been advocating for.

“The Australian guidelines are simple, clear, and pick up on all the key points we know matter. Move more, sit less, and build activity into everyday life.” says Beddie. “We are used to rivalry on the sporting field, now Australia are beating us with clear simple guidelines for wellness.”

“Importantly, they recognise that physical activity is not just about how much you do, but also the type, and part of overall wellbeing, something our sector has long championed. It also gives the right focus to strength and balance activities – something that is often omitted or given little thought.”

“Ironically, the day these were released I was meeting with the CEO of our sister body in Australia, AusActive, at a global meeting in San Diego discussing greater global collaboration.” says Beddie “We don't need to reinvent the wheel on these guidelines.”

Beddie says the updated framework aligns closely with global trends, including a stronger focus on:

• Every day movement rather than just formal exercise
• Reducing sedentary time
• Supporting mental well-being alongside physical health
• Including sleep and recovery as a part of the guidelines 
• Including clear guidelines for strength and balance activities as part of the main message.

ExerciseNZ believes New Zealand is now at risk of falling behind if it does not modernise its own national guidance.

“New Zealand has an opportunity right now to take what Australia has done and go even further, incorporating our unique context, communities, and cultures,” says Beddie.

“We strongly encourage the New Zealand Government to review and update our national physical activity guidelines so they are fit for today, not the past.”

ExerciseNZ emphasises that modern guidelines must reflect how people actually live, recognising diverse communities, including Māori, Pasifika, and broader whānau-based approaches to wellbeing.

“This is about more than guidelines, it's about helping all New Zealanders live healthier, more active lives in ways that work for them,” Beddie says.

With physical inactivity continuing to be a major contributor to long-term health challenges, ExerciseNZ says clear, relevant, and culturally responsive guidance is a critical foundation for improving outcomes across the country.