Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: Federated Farmers

Federated Farmers is welcoming clarity from the Department of Conservation on the next steps to determine the future of New Zealand’s iconic Molesworth Station.

“The Department of Conversation (DOC) has run a really robust, competitive and fair process to get to this point,” Federated Farmers president Colin Hurst says.

“We congratulate Ngāi Tahu Farming on putting forward a strong business case and being selected as the preferred operator to negotiate for the lease.

“Molesworth is an incredibly special property for all New Zealanders, owned by all New Zealanders, so it’s important whoever takes on the lease is well set up to succeed.”

Hurst says Ngāi Tahu Farming is a credible South Island farming operation with the scale, experience and financial resilience needed to farm a property like Molesworth.

“Ngāi Tahu Farming has a strong balance sheet that would allow them to keep farming through tough years with drought or poor commodity prices,” Hurst says.

“It’s also well placed to run an integrated system with existing finishing farms around North Canterbury – so the decision makes sense from that perspective.”

Hurst says it’s important Molesworth’s core focus remains maintaining a viable pastoral livestock farming operation, as it has been for the last 175 years.

“There also need to be clear expectations set that public access to Molesworth is protected and that there is a commitment to active weed and pest management.”

Source: Woolworths New Zealand

31 July 2026 – Families and collectors across New Zealand are invited to head to their local Woolworths store on Friday 7 August, for an official Disney OOSHIES™ swap day.

Running from 3PM to 5PM, the swap day gives collectors of all ages the chance to trade duplicate figures, hunt for elusive favorites, and get one step closer to completing their 40-character set.

Since launching on 13 July, the 10th-anniversary Disney OOSHIES™ collection, featuring beloved characters from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars, has brought joy to households across Aotearoa. The after-school swap day offers a safe, fun, and community focussed space for fans to connect and trade directly with each other.

Woolworths General Manager Brand and Marketing, Abbe Hale, says the enthusiasm from shoppers has been fantastic to see.

“We know how much excitement these Disney OOSHIES™ have brought to households over the past few weeks! Our stores are at the heart of neighbourhoods, and swap day is a wonderful way to bring local families together, trade duplicate figures, and give everyone a fun boost toward completing their collector boxes.”

Key Event Details:

• Event: Woolworths official Disney OOSHIES™ Swap Day
• Date: Friday, 7 August 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM
• Location: Woolworths stores nationwide
• What to bring: Any duplicate Disney OOSHIES™ you’d like to trade with fellow collectors.

About the Campaign:

Running until 23 August 2026 (while stocks last), Woolworths customers receive one Disney OOSHIE™ for every $30 spent in-store or online, as well as at FreshChoice and via MILKRUN.

The 2026 lineup celebrates 10 years of OOSHIES™ with 40 unique characters, including fan favorites from Disney’s Moana, Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu.

Made from 97% recycled materials, if customers can’t make the swap day, we encourage them to drop off any unwanted OOSHIES™ into dedicated in-store recycling bins until 13 September 2026.

For more information, including store locations, and terms and conditions visit woolworths.co.nz/Disney-Ooshies.

About Woolworths New Zealand:

Woolworths New Zealand is one of New Zealand’s largest employers with 21,000 team members across over 185 supermarkets, distribution centres, processing plants and support offices. Each week we serve over three million customers and work with hundreds of food producers and suppliers throughout Aotearoa. We’re committed to delivering New Zealand’s best supermarket experiences for customers and team with more value, innovation and accelerated investment in our stores. We’re proud to give back to the communities we live and work in, and every year we donate several million dollars worth of food, funding and sponsorship to our communities. Woolworths New Zealand is also the franchisor of more than 70 FreshChoice stores, which are locally owned and operated. Woolworths New Zealand is part of Woolworths Group.

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand

Fire and Emergency New Zealand remains committed to working with the Zealand Professional Firefighters Union (NZPFU) to achieve a fair and sustainable settlement, Acting Deputy National Commander Ken Cooper says.

“Most recently, the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) proposed both parties exchange their full revised bargaining positions at the same time, to help assess whether further facilitation is likely to assist.

“We agreed to this. The NZPFU did not.

“We continue to urge the NZPFU to call off these reckless strikes and engage with us and the ERA to try and come to a resolution so that their members can get the pay increases they deserve, and we can continue working together to keep communities safe.

“Fire and Emergency’s most recent offer compares favourably with other public sector settlements and would have delivered a 2.2 percent increase from 1 December 2025 and 2.2 percent from 1 January 2027 over a 24-month term to the end of November 2027. This was at a cost of $50m over four years.

“By comparison, the NZPFU’s settlement proposal was for more than $130 million over the same period.

“That is not financially realistic at a time where we also have to keep investing in the trucks and equipment our people need to do their jobs safely.

“In the meantime, we have provided an annual pay adjustment to operational leaders and office staff as per Fire and Emergency’s Remuneration Policy.

“This is their first market rate review increase since 2024. It is not fair to make them wait until the NZPFU comes back to negotiations to settle its agreement before adjusting their pay.

“The offer to the NZPFU included a 2.2 per cent pay rise and a number of other financial elements in addition to the pay rise, which the pay adjustment to operational managers and office staff does not include.”

During the fiftieth strike action today, Friday 31 July, Fire and Emergency received calls for 21 incidents between 12 pm and 1pm. Of the 21 incidents, 17 were in areas impacted by the strike.

Twelve were false alarms. Three were medical events that were attended to by Hato Hone St John, as per contingency planning. One was a motor vehicle collision. One was a small rubbish fire, which was out on arrival of volunteer firefighters.

“Should the NZPFU continue to take strike action, our advice remains the same. If there is a fire, get out early, stay out, then call 111,” Ken Cooper says..

Source: Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi

Wellington City Council’s planned job cuts mean less capacity to deliver the services Wellingtonians rely on, and less spending power in a local economy already doing it tough, says the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi.

Wellington City Council is proposing to disestablish 144 roles, including five fixed-term positions, and create 80 new roles, a net loss of 64 jobs across four business groups: Property, Planning and Environment, Creative Capital, and Economic and Engagement.

“This is a huge upheaval, putting great stress on loyal council workers and will also impact the local economy already hit hard by the Government’s cuts to thousands of public service jobs,” said Tom Buckley, PSA Assistant Secretary Local Government.

“These are people with skills, with experience, and with families to support. They have more to give and deserve better, particularly at a time when the job market is tight.

“The plan also doesn’t make much sense with amalgamation of councils on the cards. This is precisely the wrong time to be doing a restructure like this.

“We appreciate the council needs to find savings to keep rate rises down and reduce pressure on households. But that must be balanced against the human cost, and against risk to the services Wellingtonians rely on council workers to deliver,” Buckley said.

Many affected staff have already been through previous restructures, and there was no guarantee those applying for the new roles would get one, despite the council saying existing employees will be considered first.

“All of this creates great anxiety for workers who have to keep delivering services for Wellingtonians while they go through it,” Buckley said. “The PSA is standing by and supporting everyone affected by this proposal. We will be urging the council to think again.”

The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.

Source: Billo

California will require large generative AI providers to introduce detection and provenance features, while the European Union will require providers, brands and agencies to mark or label AI-generated content that resembles a real or plausibly real person, object or event. New York separately requires disclosure when an advertisement uses a synthetic performer. Many US ad campaigns fall outside all three laws, so revealing AI use is still a trust decision brands make on their own.

July 31, 2026. Two major AI transparency laws will take effect on August 2, 2026, one in California and one across the European Union.

Although both rules address AI-generated content, they regulate different actors and impose different obligations. California’s initial requirements apply directly to providers of publicly accessible generative AI systems with more than 1 million monthly visitors or users.

In the EU, providers must make AI-generated or manipulated content machine-detectable, while professional deployers, including brands and agencies, must visibly disclose deepfakes. These can depict existing or plausibly existing people, objects, places, entities or events where the content could falsely appear authentic or truthful.

A third law, already in effect in New York since June, covers a performer built entirely from AI who resembles no one real.

Neither rule creates a general requirement for every U.S. brand to tell viewers that an advertisement was made with AI.

That leaves three separate definitions of the same problem, and Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of Billo, doesn't expect any of them to become the real standard yet.

“Nobody is going to wait for three different laws to tell them what to do,” said Donatas Smailys. “Honestly, I’d like to see broader rules here. Most brands are left guessing whether their ads need a label at all, and that's not good for anyone. Until lawmakers catch up, platforms like TikTok and Google are already labeling AI content on their own. They're not waiting for brands to disclose first. Keeping track of three separate rules costs more than just labeling everything. Most brands will end up disclosing by default.”

How the Three Laws Differ

Two of the laws will take effect on August 2, 2026, and a third is already live. In each case, disclosure of AI use is defined differently:

• California binds providers of generative AI systems with 1 million-plus monthly users, not brands or agencies. Providers must offer a free public detection tool, an optional visible disclosure and a mandatory hidden watermark in AI images, video and audio. Violations can result in a $5,000 civil penalty per violation, with each day of continuing non-compliance treated as a separate violation, under the California AI Transparency Act as amended by AB 853.
• The European Union applies Article 50 on the same day. The rule reaches brands directly, but only when AI-generated content copies the likeness of a real person, object, entity or event and it applies to any advertiser whose ads reach EU consumers, regardless of where the company is based. Penalties can reach up to €15 million or 3% of worldwide annual turnover.
• New York, where the law has applied since June 9, covers the opposite case: invented performers who resemble no one. It applies wherever an advertiser's ads reach New York consumers, regardless of headquarters, and only where the advertiser has actual knowledge. The first violation carries a $1,000 penalty; each one after that is $5,000.

What Consumers Want and What Platforms Are Already Doing

Most consumers want AI use labeled, but most laws don't require it. A Fractl and Search Engine Land survey of 1,008 US consumers and 150 marketers, conducted in the second quarter of 2026, found 91% want AI-generated video labeled, along with 90% for images, 87% for audio and 84% for written content. Only 20% of organizations say they always disclose AI use but a third of organizations say they never do.

“Six months ago, almost no brand asked us whether a creator used AI in their video,” said Smailys. “Now it comes up in nearly every brief. Brands want to know exactly what was shot on camera and what wasn't, whether or not a law requires them to ask.”

That shift is starting to show up on platforms too, even without a legal mandate behind it. Google's My Ad Center now includes a “How this ad was made” panel across Search, YouTube and Discover, with automatic disclosure for ads built using Google's own generative AI tools.

TikTok was the first video platform to adopt C2PA, an industry content-authenticity standard, in May 2024, and now holds a seat on the standard's Steering Committee. Using that standard alongside creator-applied labels and invisible watermarking, the platform has labeled more than 3 billion videos as AI-generated. It removed more than 86 million fake accounts in the first quarter of 2026 alone.

What This Means for Brands

For most brands, it comes down to three checks: what tool made the content, whether it resembles a real person, and whether the performer on screen was invented. Billo's experts recommend four steps to check where a campaign stands before it runs:

• Check whether your ads reach New York. The disclosure requirement follows the audience, not the company's headquarters. A campaign run entirely outside the state still falls under the law if a New York consumer sees it.
• Ask your agency whether any person on screen is AI-generated. New York's law applies where the advertiser has actual knowledge.
• If you run campaigns in the EU, check whether the AI content resembles a real person. That resemblance is what triggers Article 50's disclosure duty for brands.
• Platforms may label AI-generated content independently, but brands should not assume every AI-assisted ad will be detected automatically. TikTok and Google are already disclosing AI use on their own. Brands can choose whether that disclosure comes from them first, or from the platform's detection system.

“Brands that check where they stand under all three laws now will know exactly what to do,” Smailys added. “The ones that skip that step aren't avoiding the question. They're just leaving the answer to someone else, a regulator, a customer, or a platform that labels the ad for them. Either a brand decides when to disclose, or something else decides it first.”

About Billo

Billo is the leading UGC creator marketing platform founded in 2019 that connects brands with creators to produce high-performing social video ads. It is based in San Francisco, CA, and is led by the co-founder and CEO, Donatas Smailys. The platform combines the power of UGC content with a streamlined production process, helping brands increase brand awareness, drive traffic, and boost conversions with authentic creator videos on TikTok, Meta, YouTube, and other platforms.

Source: Mindful Money

KiwiSaver Investment in “Companies of Concern” Climbs to $11.1 Billion, even as Kiwis invest for positive outcomes at home

New analysis of KiwiSaver portfolio holdings to March 2026 shows New Zealanders' retirement savings are increasingly split between rapidly growing investment in clean energy leaders and rising exposure to fossil fuel expansion, human rights violations, environmental harm and nuclear weapons production.

The best way to verify ethical claims made by KiwiSaver funds is not to take fund managers at their word, since most claim to invest responsibly,  but to track where the money actually goes. Mindful Money's latest analysis, covering portfolio holdings across 417 funds to the end of March 2026, does exactly that, tracing $143 billion of KiwiSaver investment down to the specific companies.

Barry Coates, co-CEO of Mindful Money explained: “The public have little trust in the claims of ethical, ESG or responsible investment practices by their KiwiSaver providers. This report adds up investments across all of the KiwiSaver funds and finds the public are justified in being sceptical about the claims.” 

“KiwiSaver members can find out the real story of where their money goes by visiting Mindful Money. We are a charity that provides that information for free.”

The good and the bad

The results of the data analysis show a mixed picture. On one hand, New Zealanders' KiwiSaver funds are increasingly backing the companies driving the country's shift to clean energy and climate resilience.

Five of the six companies receiving the largest KiwiSaver investment are New Zealand businesses delivering positive outcomes: Contact Energy, Meridian Energy, Mercury Energy, Kāinga Ora and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare. That is a strong endorsement, by our KiwiSaver providers, of the companies building the infrastructure the country needs.

Barry Coates said: “Our retirement savings can make a huge contribution towards responding to our urgent challenges. After years of ignoring this agenda, some of the leading KiwiSaver fund managers are at last investing for the common good.”

On the other hand, total KiwiSaver investment in the issues that New Zealanders consistently say they want their investments to avoid has now reached $11.1 billion. This is equivalent to 7.8% of the total KiwiSaver fund pool. That is a significant sum of Kiwis' hard-earned retirement savings invested in companies whose practices most New Zealanders want to avoid.

Where the money is going

Fossil fuel production remains the largest single category of concern, with $5.18 billion invested (3.62% of total KiwiSaver funds), a rise of 30% over the past six months. This includes growing investment in major oil, gas and coal producers still expanding production rather than transitioning away from fossil fuels, including BHP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Santos and Woodside. Increases in this category over the period were driven particularly by Milford, ANZ and Fisher Funds increasing their holdings, while Aurora reduced its exposure. War in Ukraine and Iran has spiked oil and gas prices, but the long term future is for rapid declines in fossil fuel production.

Investment in companies linked to human rights violations sits close behind, at $3.76 billion (2.63%). A significant driver has been increased investment in Rio Tinto, a company with a long record of harm to local communities, indigenous peoples and the environment through its mining operations, and in Thermo Fisher Scientific, which faces ongoing concerns over the use of its products to support surveillance by the Chinese state. Milford, Fisher Funds and ANZ increased their holdings in companies flagged for human rights concerns over the period, while Simplicity and BNZ reduced theirs.

Environmental harm accounted for $1.78 billion (1.25%) of KiwiSaver investment, with notable increases in holdings of Corteva and UPL Ltd, both agrichemical companies whose products, including highly hazardous chemicals and PFAS (“forever chemicals”), pose risks to human health and the environment. ANZ, Mercer and Sharesies increased their exposure to this category, while Milford and MAS reduced theirs.

Animal cruelty investment reached $1.52 billion (1.06%), with increases linked to factory farming giants JBS and Tyson. JBS in particular has drawn international criticism not only for animal welfare practices but for its role in driving deforestation through its supply chains.

Weapons investment totalled $612 million (0.43%) an increase of 15% over the six months to March 2026. After years of declining investment in nuclear, there has been a rise in investments in nuclear weapons production through RTX (formerly Raytheon), Honeywell and Lockheed Martin. Sharesies, InvestNow and Generate increased their holdings of nuclear weapons producers over the period, while AMP, Goalsgetter and MAS reduced theirs.

Social harm, the traditional ethical categories of tobacco, gambling, alcohol and pornography,  remains the smallest category of concern, at $444 million (0.31%). This reflects the fact that these issues are relatively easy for fund managers to define and screen out, and many major KiwiSaver providers have had long-standing policies to exclude them. Surprisingly, there were increases in tobacco producers such as Philip Morris and BAT by Sharesies, Kernel and ANZ. 

Cashing in on global disruption

Taken together, these figures show a widening gap between the outcomes New Zealanders say they want from their KiwiSaver savings and where a meaningful slice of that money is actually invested. Surveys consistently show that human rights violations are the single issue New Zealanders are most concerned about avoiding in their investments, followed closely by weapons and animal cruelty. Yet these are precisely the categories where KiwiSaver providers have made the least progress, and in several cases have gone backwards.

Barry Coates explained: “The latest KiwiSaver investment data shows funds chasing investments in companies profiting from war, environmental damage and harmful company practices. Some Kiwis are fine with making money from the misery of others. But many others aren’t. Now they have the information to make informed choices.” 

The sharp increase in nuclear weapons investment is particularly striking. While most KiwiSaver providers have policies excluding investment in landmines or cluster munitions, far fewer exclude the catastrophic category of nuclear weapons production, despite New Zealand's long-standing national identity as a nuclear-free country and strong public opposition to nuclear weapons.

Similarly, the increases in fossil fuel investment come at a time when the economic case for renewable energy continues to strengthen. Renewable energy is now the cheapest and most efficient source of new energy generation in most markets, and fossil fuel companies face growing risks of stranded assets as production peaks and then declines globally. 

Barry Coates added: “KiwiSaver providers chasing short-term returns from fossil fuel expansion are taking on financial and climate risks that a genuine transition strategy would avoid.”

A tale of two portfolios

The strong flows into Contact, Meridian, Mercury, Kāinga Ora and Fisher & Paykel show that KiwiSaver providers are capable of directing significant capital toward companies delivering positive impact for New Zealand. Later this year, Mindful Money will launch a major new project, providing free information to the New Zealand public on investments by KiwiSaver funds into companies that generate positive outcomes. 

This investment in supporting the transition to renewable energy, providing affordable housing and supporting healthcare sits uneasily alongside the desperate drive for short term profits at any cost. Mindful Money believes that responsible funds should not sacrifice their principles in the sugar hit from short term profits, driven by policies largely influenced by President Trump – war and conflict, nuclear weapons, fossil fuel disruption and unregulated toxic chemicals.

Individual fund managers show real divergence in their approach. Some, such as Simplicity, BNZ, Aurora and MAS, have reduced their exposure to one or more categories of concern over the period. Others, including Milford, ANZ, Fisher Funds, Mercer, Sharesies, InvestNow and Generate, increased their holdings in at least one category flagged as a concern to the New Zealand public.  

Finding an ethical fund

KiwiSaver members do not have to accept this gap between their values and their investments. A small group of “Mindful Funds” meet Mindful Money's ethical criteria, combining strong ethical standards with solid financial performance, including funds from Pathfinder Asset Management, Generate, Simplicity, Booster SRI Funds, Harbour Asset Management, MAS and Always Ethical.

Members of the public can check exactly what their own KiwiSaver fund is invested in, and find a fund that better aligns with their values, for free, at mindfulmoney.nz.

About Mindful Money

Mindful Money is an independent New Zealand charity that empowers Kiwis to align their investments with their values, by tracking where KiwiSaver and managed fund money actually goes, and helping members of the public find funds that meet their ethical standards.

Notes: Full data tables and methodology are available on request. Figures are based on Mindful Money's analysis of reported portfolio holdings for 417 KiwiSaver funds as at March 2026.

Source: Earth Sciences New Zealand

Outlook Summary

Regional predictions for the next three months:

• Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty
• Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington
• Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa
• Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller
• West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago and Southland Coastal Canterbury, east Otago.

Outlook Summary

• El Niño conditions persist in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, and by all measures the event has strengthened over the last month – including the strongest atmospheric measurements on record for July. We remain in its early stages; impacts on New Zealand’s weather patterns are yet to be fully felt, but are anticipated during this outlook period.

• Air flow patterns are expected to eventually favour a prevailing westerly direction, characteristic of El Niño conditions, as the season progresses. This is expected to be more apparent from mid-spring onwards.

• Seasonal air temperatures for August – October 2026 are most likely to be near average for the east of the North Island. They are about equally likely to be near average or above average for all other New Zealand regions. This does not preclude occasional cold outbreaks, for example in early August, which are a typical aspect of late winter and spring weather patterns.

• Rainfall totals for August – October 2026 are about equally likely to be near normal or below normal for the north and east of the South Island, and the east of the North Island. Rainfall is most likely to be below normal for the remainder of the North Island. Meanwhile, rainfall is most likely to be above normal for the west of the South Island.

• New Zealand has experienced several heavy rain events from the north over the past year.

These northerly rain events have already reduced in frequency in recent months, and this trend is expected to continue. The main heavy rain threat instead is expected to shift toward the western and lower South Island.

• The likelihood of below normal rainfall in several regions is likely to translate to below normal groundwater recharge, creating challenges for water-reliant sectors.

• During August – October 2026, soil moisture levels and river flows are expected to be near normal or below normal for the east and north of both islands, the west of the North Island, and the north of the South Island. In the west of the South Island, they are expected to be near normal or above normal.

• Warmer-than-average subsurface ocean temperature anomalies have continued to strengthen and expand across the tropical Pacific, providing clear support for El Niño to intensify further and reach the very strong category in the coming months. Dynamical and statistical forecast guidance concurs, with approximately a 90% likelihood that the event will reach or exceed very strong intensity during the outlook period.

• Peak El Niño conditions are most likely to occur during the austral summer of 2026–27, with the potential for this event to have significant impacts. It is likely to develop into one of the strongest in recent history, as anticipated over the last few months (see El Niño declared, expected to intensify into one of the strongest on record).

• El Niño-related influences on regional weather patterns are expected to become more apparent later during spring as ENSO signals continue to strengthen. In New Zealand, this is expected to favour periods of active westerlies, bringing an increased risk of unusually windy conditions and notable temperature variability. How widespread and persistent these conditions become will depend on the location and strength of nearby high-pressure systems.

• Other climate drivers and intraseasonal oscillations, for example, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden Julian Oscillation will still contribute to New Zealand weather patterns, though El Niño is expected to be most dominant. In general, these other drivers are moving into phases which support El Niño-like impacts.

• Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) are historically rare in the Southern Hemisphere, but in recent years have become more common. Predictability is limited, but there is justification for enhanced monitoring over the coming weeks. If an SSW does occur, its impacts on New Zealand weather patterns can be delayed by a month or more.

• Out-of-season Southwest Pacific tropical cyclones (July–October) are extremely rare. When they do occur, it is almost always under El Niño conditions. This remote risk does not currently factor into New Zealand's current Seasonal Climate Outlook, although active monitoring remains in place.

Regional predictions for August – October 2026

The tables below show the probabilities (or percent chances) for each of three categories: above average, near average, and below average. In the absence of any forecast guidance there would be an equal likelihood (33% chance) of the outcome for any of the three categories. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance that is expected for the coming three-month period. All outlooks are for the three months averaged as a whole. During these three months, there will inevitably be relatively wet and dry periods, as well as hot and cold periods. The exact range in temperature and rainfall within each of the three categories varies with location and season. However, as a guide, the “near average” or middle category for the temperature predictions includes deviations up to ±0.5°C relative to the long-term mean, whereas for rainfall the “near normal” category lies between 80 percent and 120 percent of the long-term (1991-2020) mean.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

• Temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (40% chance) or near average (45% chance).

• Rainfall totals are most likely to be below normal (50% chance).

• Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (45% chance).

Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

• Temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (45% chance).

• Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).

• Soil moisture levels are equally likely to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (45% chance).

• River flows are about equally likely to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (40 – 45% chance).

Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

• Temperatures are most likely to be near average (45% chance).

• Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance) for the outlook period as a whole.

• Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (40% chance).

Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance). The likelihood of increased temperature variability, including larger swings between warm and cool conditions, as well as periods of unusually windy weather, is expected to increase during spring.

• Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).

• Soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (45% chance).

West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance).

• Rainfall totals are most likely to be above normal (50% chance). The risk of active weather events, including heavy rainfall and strong winds, is forecast to increase during spring.

• Soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal (50% chance).

• River flows are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance).

Coastal Canterbury and the nearby plains, east Otago

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

• Temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (40% chance). The likelihood of increased temperature variability, including larger swings between warm and cool conditions, as well as periods of unusually windy weather, is expected to increase during spring.

• Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).

• Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (40% chance).

The full probability breakdown is:

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities

Background

During July 2026, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) trended strongly negative, reaching its most negative July value on record since 1951, consistent with El Niño conditions. Based on daily observations through 29 July, the monthly SOI value was -3.4.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to strengthen during July 2026, with positive anomalies now extending along the entire Equator east of the International Date Line. The Relative Niño 3.4 Index (RONI) averaged +1.4°C over the 30 days ending 29 July, well above the El Niño threshold. During August, the RONI is forecast to exceed +1.5°C, the threshold for a strong El Niño event. The current pattern of equatorial SST anomalies is consistent with the rapid development of a canonical El Niño event, similar to those of 1997/98 and 1982/83, in which the strongest warming is concentrated in the eastern rather than central Pacific.

During July, subsurface ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific were markedly above average and intensified further, particularly in the eastern Pacific (east of ~160°W). Temperature anomalies locally exceeded +8°C, occurring between depths of around 150 m (centred near 150°W) and 50 m (close to the South American coast). These subsurface anomalies are also continuing to be expressed at the surface, hence the continuing increases in the Relative Niño 3.4 Index.

Positive upper-ocean heat content anomalies (0-300 m) remain firmly established along the Equator east of the International Date Line. The magnitude of this subsurface heat reservoir is consistent with other observed indicators and with dynamical and statistical forecast guidance which together suggest that the ongoing El Niño is likely to reach very strong thresholds during the outlook period, and most likely continuing to strengthen further later in spring.

Rainfall and Convection: During July, enhanced convection and rainfall – indicated by negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies – was focused around the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) through the equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection and rainfall – indicated by positive OLR anomalies – persisted across the Indian subcontinent and the maritime continent. This pattern of tropical rainfall anomalies was strongly consistent with an El Niño state and closely resembled a canonical El Niño configuration.

Trade winds remained dramatically weakened across the Pacific, and reversed entirely at times, characteristic of El Niño.

In summary, oceanic conditions are in an El Niño configuration, and setting the stage for further development during the outlook period, with particularly significant warmth (positive heat content anomalies) stored in the ocean along the Equator in the Pacific. These signals are only growing ever-stronger with time. Meanwhile, the atmosphere is also increasingly resembling El Niño. A fully-coupled El Niño has therefore emerged, although stronger ocean and atmospheric responses are anticipated as the event develops further.

The Relative Oceanic Niño Index forecasts indicate a 100% chance for El Niño conditions over the next three-month period (August – October 2026). The IRI/CPC forecasts also support this outlook. Further strengthening of the event is likely beyond the outlook period, and it is increasingly probable that the event will peak as one of the strongest on record.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) decreased from near record high values late in June, and showed a mixture of negative and positive modes throughout July. During August, the negative SAM mode is expected to be more common than it has been over the last two months, though occasional positive spells may still occur.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value for July is neutral (+0.2°C). Forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the IOD is likely to become positive over the next three month period, and is forecast to reach thresholds (+0.4°C) required to declare a positive IOD event during the spring season.

In the first week of July, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved into the western Pacific, likely contributing to the low-pressure systems experienced in New Zealand. It then moved slowly eastwards, acting in concert with the El Niño. After making minimal impact in the Indian Ocean, it should emerge into the western Pacific again early in August, likely having some influence again on New Zealand weather patterns.

With the MJO in the western Pacific, it can also contribute to both oceanic and atmospheric components of El Niño strengthening further.

Local Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average or above average around the majority of the country, and marine heatwave (MHW) conditions are continuing around much of the South Island and Tasman Sea. Forecasts from coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the next three-month period (see Sea Surface Temperature Update | Earth Sciences New Zealand | NIWA) indicate SSTs should continue to warm around the coastal waters of the country, especially around the South Island.

North NI +0.55°C

West NI +0.38°C

East NI +0.09°C

North SI +0.61°C

West SI +0.89°C

East SI +0.83°C

NZ 30-day coastal SST anomalies

(to 29 Jul 2026)

Figure 1: Latest 30 days SST anomalies to the 29 th July 2026, calculated with respect to the 1991-2020 climatological period.

* The Relative Oceanic Niño 3.4 Index (RONI) is a modern way of measuring oceanic El Niño and La Niña that is complementary to traditional oceanic indices. While traditional oceanic indices like the Niño 3.4 Index monitor SSTs in one region, the RONI compares the average SST in the central equatorial Pacific with the average SST across the global tropics. Since tropical rainfall patterns respond to changes in ocean temperatures, this new relative index can help forecasters better determine if the equatorial Pacific is warmer or cooler than the rest of the global tropics, which has become more challenging to discern as seas warm because of climate change.

Forecast Confidence

Temperature

Forecast confidence for temperatures is Medium. Cold weather in early August should then trend steadily towards milder conditions, ultimately influenced by the developing westerly conditions and warm seas

surrounding the country. Periodic cold outbreaks will still occur, as is normal for spring.

Rainfall Forecast confidence for rainfall is Medium-High. El Niño influenced rainfall patterns are expected to dominate the latter parts of the outlook period. Compared with previous outlooks, confidence is higher that any uncharacteristic rain events, such as in mid-August, will not upset the overall rainfall pattern over the three month period.

Notes

1. Earth Sciences New Zealand outlooks indicate the likelihood of climate conditions being at, above, or below average for the season as a whole, relative to the 1991-2020 average. They are not ‘weather forecasts’ as it is not possible to forecast precise weather conditions three months in advance.

2. The outlooks are the result of the expert judgment of scientists and forecasters. They take into account observations of atmospheric and ocean conditions and output from global and local climate models. The presence of El Niño or La Niña conditions and the sea surface temperatures around New Zealand can be useful indicators of likely overall climate conditions for a season.

3. The outlooks state the probability for above average conditions, near average conditions, and below average conditions for rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, and river flows. When a particular probability reaches or exceeds 60%, we conclude it is “very likely”.

4. This three-way probability means that a random choice would be correct only 33 per cent (or one-third) of the time. It would be like randomly throwing a dart at a board divided into three equal parts, or casting a dice with three numbers on it.

5. Where probabilities are within 5% of one another, the term “about equally” is used.

6. All outlooks are for the three months as a whole. There will inevitably be relatively wet and dry days, and hot and cold days, within a season. The exact range in temperature and rainfall within each of the three categories varies with location and season. However, as a guide, the “near average” or middle category for the temperature predictions includes deviations up to ±0.5°C for the long-term mean, whereas for rainfall the “near normal” category lies between 80 per cent and 120 per cent of the long-term mean.

7. The seasonal climate outlooks are an output of Predicting climate variability and change, a scientific research programme supported through Earth Sciences New Zealand’s Strategic Science Investment

Fund.

8. The forecast confidence meter for temperature and rainfall represents the expert judgement of Earth Sciences New Zealand climate scientists. It aims to synthesize various forecast elements, such as global and local climate drivers, in order to clearly communicate forecaster confidence in how all the evidence has aligned for the seasonal outlook.