Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute

Zurich, 09/30/2026

The Swiss economy performed significantly better than expected in the first half of 2026. Together with upward revisions to the national accounts, this has led the KOF Swiss Economic Institute to raise its growth forecast substantially: real GDP excluding major international sporting events is now expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026 (summer forecast: 0.8%) and by 1.7% in both 2027 and 2028. Uncertainty remains high.

Despite the pressures from US tariff policy and elevated energy prices, the global economy has so far proved resilient. The Swiss economy also performed better in the first half of 2026 than expected in the summer forecast. The second quarter in particular surprised on the upside. In addition, revisions to the national accounts paint a significantly more favourable picture of past economic developments.

Strong first half shapes growth in 2026

Goods exports rose sharply in the second quarter, driven predominantly by pharmaceutical exports. Private consumption as well as construction and equipment investment also made positive contributions to growth. The expansion in industry was broad-based in the first half of the year: alongside the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, the other areas of manufacturing also recorded substantial gains.

Annual growth in 2026 is therefore largely determined by the strong first half of the year. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects a temporary pause in growth in the third quarter before the economy returns to moderate expansion in the fourth quarter. The output gap is likely to be almost closed at present. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, aggregate output is also expected to remain broadly in line with its potential.

Investment picks up, consumption remains supportive

The new data paint a considerably more favourable picture of investment in particular. Both construction and equipment investment were revised sharply upwards for 2025. The recovery in construction investment continued in the first half of 2026, and the outlook for the coming quarters remains positive. Further growth is expected in both residential construction and construction for industry, trade and services.

Equipment investment, by contrast, was more subdued in the first half of the year. However, important leading indicators have recently improved: order backlogs and capacity utilisation in industry have increased, while firms' earnings situation has also improved. Overall, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects gross fixed capital formation to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.

Private consumption also supports domestic demand. Following a weak start to the year, it picked up again in the second quarter. Consumer sentiment has improved, retail sales have recovered and there are also signs of easing conditions in the hospitality sector. In addition, according to the new data, households' disposable income is significantly higher than previously assumed, providing additional scope for consumer spending.

Improved outlook in Europe supports foreign trade

The global economy remained robust in the second quarter despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. The euro area in particular performed better than expected. Sentiment indicators have also improved recently across many countries and sectors. The growth outlook for Germany has been revised substantially upwards. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, the global economy is expected to expand at a moderate pace.

Following the pronounced fluctuations of recent quarters, Swiss foreign trade is also expected to normalise gradually. The improved outlook in important European export markets and signs of stabilisation in parts of the export-oriented manufacturing sector are underpinning this development. The machinery and electrical engineering industry in particular appears somewhat more resilient, while the pharmaceutical industry continues to provide important growth impulses. However, the burden from US tariffs and weak demand in some export markets remains.

Employment rises, unemployment remains elevated

Revised employment data and the unexpectedly strong second quarter paint a more favourable picture of labour market developments. Full-time equivalent employment is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2026, compared with just 0.5% in the summer forecast. However, the strong annual increase is largely attributable to data revisions and the robust first half of the year. Given mixed signals from labour market indicators, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects only limited job creation in the second half of the year.

At the same time, unemployment remains elevated. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute assumes that part of the recent rise in unemployment is structural and will therefore not be reversed by a cyclical recovery alone. The unemployment rate according to SECO is expected to average 3.1% in both 2026 and 2027 before edging down to 3.0% in 2028.

Inflation remains low – SNB expected to raise policy rate

Nominal wage growth is expected to weaken further through 2027. Given persistently low inflation, however, this should still result in modest real wage gains. Higher energy prices are temporarily adding to price pressures, but there have so far been only limited signs of second-round effects. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects inflation of 0.6% in 2026, 0.6% in 2027 and 0.5% in 2028.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its policy rate unchanged at 0% in September. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects the SNB to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at its next monetary policy assessment. The policy rate is then expected to remain unchanged over the remainder of the forecast horizon.

Uncertainty remains high

The forecast remains subject to considerable uncertainty. A further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies more severely and prolong the energy price shock. Renewed US tariff increases or weaker growth in important export markets could also weigh on the Swiss export economy. In addition, concerns about the sustainability of public finances in highly indebted economies could lead to higher risk premia and tighter financing conditions, thereby weighing on the global economy.

Upside risks could arise from an easing of geopolitical and trade tensions. If European investment programmes are implemented more quickly or utilised more fully than assumed, they could provide additional support to demand. A faster diffusion of artificial intelligence could also trigger additional investment and allow productivity gains to materialise earlier than assumed in the forecast.

KOF Economic Forecasts: official forecast page.

Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia

The Commonwealth Bank has responded to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate increase.

30 September 2026

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum (p.a.), CBA will increase rates by 0.25% p.a. on eligible variable-rate business loans.

The rate change will apply to CBA Business Bank’s Variable Base Rate, Commercial Variable Base Rate, Residential Equity Rate, Commercial Residential Equity Rate, Overdraft Reference Rate, and Commercial Overdraft Reference Rate, flowing through to eligible variable-rate business lending products including BetterBusiness Loans and Business Overdrafts.

These changes will be effective 9 October 2026.

CBA Group Executive Business Banking, Mike Vacy-Lyle, said the Bank remained focused on supporting customers as they navigate an uncertain operating environment.

“As inflationary pressures persist, many Australian businesses continue to face higher operating costs and tighter margins.

“We’re working closely with our customers to understand how these conditions are affecting them and where we can offer support. We encourage any business experiencing pressure to reach out early so we can work through the support options available, including assistance from our Business Financial Assistance team.”

Support for business customers

CBA offers a wide range of tools and programs to support business customers at every stage of their business journey. This includes:

• Free comprehensive cash flow tracking capabilities via a Business Cash Flow tool in the CommBank app.
• Bill Sense to help customers predict future bills.
• CommBank Business Masterclass modules help upskill businesses in the areas of AI and cashflow.
• Eligible business customers can also benefit from discounts and special offers available via CommBank Yello for Business, the bank’s customer rewards and recognition program.
• A range of support options are available for business customers experiencing financial difficulty, including deferred business loan repayments or debt restructuring.

More information is available on our website and businesses seeking support can speak to their Relationship Manager or call CBA’s dedicated Business Financial Assistance team, available 24/7, on 13 26 07.

Things you should know

Media releases are prepared without considering an individual reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Readers should consider the appropriateness to their circumstances. Visit Important Information to access Product Disclosure Statements or Terms and Conditions which are currently available electronically for products of the Commonwealth Bank Group, along with the relevant Financial Services Guide. Target Market Determinations are available here. Loan applications are subject to credit approval. Interest rates are correct at the time they are published and are subject to change. Fees and charges may apply.

CBA Newsroom

Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Commonwealth Bank responds to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate increase.

30 September 2026

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum (p.a.), CBA will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a.

All CommBank home loan variable rate changes announced today will be effective 9 October 2026.

CBA’s Group Executive Retail Banking, Angus Sullivan said the RBA’s decision comes amid persistent inflation and continued global uncertainty, both contributing to broader economic pressures.

“Each customer’s circumstances are different, and our teams are ready to provide support, help them understand their options and consider what might work best for their situation,” Sullivan said.

“For some customers, the immediate priority might be understanding how their repayments and budget may change and where adjustments can be made. For others, it may be having a more detailed conversation with us about their finances.”

Customers who are concerned about their financial circumstances can contact CBA through their usual banking channels. Those experiencing financial difficulty can also connect with CBA’s Financial Assistance Solutions Team, who can talk through their situation and discuss what support may be available.

For customers seeking greater certainty around repayments, a fixed rate home loan can provide stability for a set period, while a split loan combines this with the flexibility of a variable rate.

“Customers have different needs and goals, and we encourage anyone interested in understanding their options to speak with a Home Lending Specialist about what may be right for them,” Sullivan said.

Quick tips to help customers manage their finances:

1. Customers can estimate how much their home loan repayments may change via the Home Loan Repayments Calculator.
2. Eligible customers can align their home loan repayments to when and how often they are paid via the Home Loan repayment change tool.
3. Customers can explore the Insights tab in the CommBank app to get a clearer view of their money. They can view their spending, saving, bills and investing in one place.
4. Use Category Budgets to set weekly, fortnightly or monthly budgets for different categories of spending – from entertainment to transport, eating out and shopping. Customers can see how their spending compares to the budget they set themselves, to help them stay on track.
5. Use CommBank Yello to unlock additional benefits and support that can help eligible customers manage everyday household costs.
6. Visit our Lend a Hand page to view a range of tools, tips and guidance all designed to help navigate the current cost of living pressures.
7. If additional assistance is needed, customers can message us at any time in the CommBank app to be connected with our Financial Assistance Solutions Team.

CBA Newsroom

Source: Federated Farmers

Federated Farmers is applauding today’s decision by central Otago councillors to flush moves to spread treated human wastewater sludge on farmland at Lauder.

The option was being considered by Central Otago District Council (CODC) to deal with more than 20,000 cubic metres of sludge stored in geobags, and at the bottom of aeration ponds, at the Cromwell wastewater treatment plant.

“It’s heartening that councillors have heeded the anger and strong warnings from rural residents in Lauder and the wider Manuherekia catchment,” says Federated Farmers Otago president Anna Gillespie.

“The understandable motivation was to save ratepayers’ money in these tough times but that cannot be at the expense of the environment and water quality in a sensitive catchment.

“It was great to hear acknowledgement from Mayor Tamah Alley and Deputy Mayor Tracy Paterson that rural residents shouldn’t be expected to take the fall for waste generated in urban areas.”

Council officers warned of rural community fightback and potential for delays to the urgent programme of work to deal with sludge at both the Cromwell and Alexandra treatment plants.

There was also new information that the consent to spread wastewater sludge at the Lauder property might cover only half of what CODC needed to dispose of.

Potential savings for ratepayers had narrowed from $600,000 to $182,000.

Councillors decided to continue with the previous disposal method, transporting the sludge to a landfill at Winton.

“From the get-go Federated Farmers has questioned the science and modelling under-pinning the consent granted to spread effluent sludge from Wānaka and Albert Town at the former sheep and beef farm at Lauder,” Gillespie says.

“The prospect of more sludge from Cromwell and Alexandra was truly alarming.

“It’s pleasing to learn that Otago Regional Council is now reviewing those consent conditions in light of the points we’ve been making.”

Source: Advanced Robotics for Manufacturing Hub

BRISBANE, 30th September — Queensland manufacturers can apply from today for up to $250,000 worth of artificial intelligence work, built and delivered by Brisbane-based AI & Robotics for Manufacturing experts ARM Hub.

The Queensland Manufacturing AI Uplift Trial Program, open today, provides support directly from the Queensland Government for Flagship Projects. Delivery of the program will be through Brisbane’s ARM Hub, with multiple Flagship Projects anticipated for funding.

The Queensland government will cover 80 per cent of each project's total value, with up to $250,000 available for each project. ARM Hub engineers work directly with each business to identify the right AI use case, then build and deliver it.

“The best AI projects begin with the people doing the work and a problem worth solving. The AI Adopt Uplift program will bring their expertise together combined with business data, AI infrastructure and responsible AI to improve how things are made,” said ARM Hub CEO Professor Cori Stewart.

“The goal is to help Queensland manufacturers become more productive, meet their compliance obligations and compete more effectively.”

The program is open to Queensland manufacturers with between five and 500 full-time equivalent staff. At least half those staff must work in Queensland, and the business must have operated in the state for at least two years.

Launching the program, Queensland Minister for Natural Resources and Mines, Manufacturing and for Regional and Rural Development Dale Last said: “We’re backing manufacturers that are ready to adopt AI to improve productivity, boost competitiveness and grow their businesses.”

At least one of the Flagship Projects will go to a business in regional Queensland, defined as anywhere outside Greater Brisbane.

How to apply

Applications will stay open for four weeks, with expressions of interest closing at the end of October. Businesses should outline their operation and where they think AI could help on the information page.

ARM Hub will work with shortlisted companies to build a roadmap scoping what an AI project would deliver, at no cost to the business.

A joint panel of ARM Hub and Queensland Government representatives assesses the roadmaps and selects the Flagship Companies, with winners expected to be announced in early 2027.

ARM Hub delivers and administers the program on behalf of the Queensland Government, through the Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Manufacturing and Regional and Rural Development. ARM Hub is the National AI Centre's AI adoption delivery mechanism for Australian manufacturing.

Full program guidelines and eligibility criteria are available here.

About ARM Hub

The Advanced Robotics for Manufacturing Hub is one of Australia's four government-backed AI Adopt Centres. Based in Brisbane, ARM Hub partners with manufacturers, SMEs, researchers, and technology companies to drive innovation and productivity through advanced automation and AI solutions.

Source: Te Hiringa Mahara – Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission

Te Hiringa Mahara is calling for focused attention to embed a human-rights approach after a new report revealed rising seclusion rates, particularly for Māori, and uneven progress in reducing coercive practices.

Today’s Office of the Director of Mental Health and Addiction services regulatory report reinforces the need to reduce coercive practices, which are inconsistent with effective therapeutic care and human rights obligations.

“We know that isolating people in seclusion and treating people compulsorily against their will causes harm and has limited therapeutic value. People with lived experience consistently describe the trauma they experience and the loss of trust in services as a result,” says Te Hiringa Mahara Director of Mental Health and Addiction Sector Leadership, Sonya Russell.

“People experiencing mental health crisis need trauma-informed, culturally safe care that upholds their human rights and promotes supported decision-making.

“Too many people get into services too late when they are experiencing crisis. A robust early crisis response approach is at the heart of an effective mental health and addiction system and we need to get that right.

“The wide variation between districts in the use of seclusion and compulsory treatment shows what can be achieved with sustained effort and resources. We acknowledge the gains made by these districts. However, there are districts where rates of seclusion and compulsory treatment are high, so the practices that lead to these rates need immediate attention.

“Te Hiringa Mahara has long called for the elimination of seclusion. In June, we recommended Health New Zealand publish a national seclusion elimination plan by June 2027. We reinforced that recommendation in our 'Roadmap for mental health, addiction and wellbeing', released shortly afterwards.

“The Office of the Director of Mental Health and Addiction services regulatory report also highlights persistent and unacceptable inequities. Māori remain significantly more likely than any other ethnic group to be subject to compulsory assessment, community treatment orders and inpatient treatment orders. Māori men continue to experience the highest rates of compulsory treatment.

“While the new Mental Health Act, passed in July 2026, introduces processes that are better aligned to upholding human rights protection and is a significant step forward, it will not come into force until 1 July 2028. To embed a human rights framework in our mental health and addiction system, we must accelerate efforts to drive practice change and reduce coercive practices. The care people and their whānau receive must be respectful, equitable, uphold their rights and focus on their wellbeing,” says Sonya Russell.

Note for editors:

• The Office of the Director of Mental Health and Addiction Services Regulatory Report released today covers 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2025.
• Māori were twice as likely as Pacific peoples to be subject to community treatment orders, 7.7 times as likely as Asian peoples and 3.2 times as likely as other ethnicities. For inpatient orders, Māori were 2.1, 8.6 and 3.2 times as likely, respectively.
• Māori were 6.8 times more likely than non-Māori to be secluded, with their rate rising from 9.6 to 10.2 per 100,000 in 2024/25.
• The Pacific seclusion rate rose 6%.

Source: Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

The signing of the contract to strengthen the SH50 Ngaruroro River Bridge, known locally as Fernhill Bridge, marks a major milestone for Hawke's Bay businesses and freight operators.

Transporting New Zealand Membership Manager Lindsay Calvi-Freeman says the signed contract brings welcome certainty after years of restrictions, detours and extra costs for the region.

“Transporting New Zealand has pushed for a solution to Fernhill Bridge for several years. We put hard numbers around what the restrictions were costing the region, and that evidence helped build a strong case for investment. Seeing that work now translate into a signed construction contract is a really significant milestone,” Calvi-Freeman says.

Weight and speed restrictions have been in place on the bridge since October 2022. A Transporting New Zealand survey of just six local freight operators found the resulting 40-kilometre detour was costing those businesses and their customers an estimated $2.36 million a year, while generating an extra 500 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions through additional diesel use.

Downer will carry out the strengthening work, with construction expected to begin in October and be completed next year. The project is estimated to cost between $5 million and $10 million.

Once the work is complete, the current weight and speed restrictions will be lifted. The strengthened bridge will be able to carry higher-capacity freight vehicles, including High Productivity Motor Vehicles (HPMVs) and 50MAX truck combinations. That will allow more freight to travel directly across the bridge instead of taking lengthy detours.

“This bridge is a vital freight link for one of New Zealand's most productive primary-sector regions. Every unnecessary detour adds time, fuel and cost, and that ultimately flows through to local businesses and their customers,” Calvi-Freeman says.

“The funding announcement was a huge win, and signing the contract is the next critical step. We now want to see construction get underway and the benefits delivered as soon as possible.”

About Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand is the peak national membership association representing the road freight transport industry. Our members operate urban, rural and inter-regional commercial freight transport services throughout the country.

Road is the dominant freight mode in New Zealand, transporting 93% of the freight task on a tonnage basis, and 75% on a tonne-km basis. The road freight transport industry employs over 34,000 people across more than 4,700 businesses, with an annual turnover of $6 billion.

Source: Whitireia and WelTec

After seven years in the workforce, two years living overseas, and plenty of life experience along the way, Declan Wilcock has found his place in mechanical engineering.

Now studying the New Zealand Diploma in Engineering (Mechanical) at Whitireia and WelTec, the 26-year-old Te Awa Kairangi (Lower Hutt) local says returning to study has been one of the best decisions he has ever made.

It was during his time living in Scotland that Declan realised mechanical engineering was more than just a family influence. It was a career he genuinely wanted. “I stopped worrying about doing something different and started focusing on what I actually enjoyed,” he says. “That's when I realised engineering was the right path for me.”

A keen mountain biker, he began working in bike shops straight after school, spending several years learning about mechanics, design and problem-solving while helping customers keep their bikes running smoothly. “The bike industry taught me how engineering works,” he says. “You learn to look beyond the problem itself and think about why it happened and who will be using the solution.”

Engineering has always been part of family life. Declan comes from a family of engineers, with both his father and brother working in the field. “Conversations about engines and how things work were a regular part of growing up,” he says. “Those discussions sparked my curiosity and helped me understand the systems and processes that keep the world moving.”

While living in Scotland, Declan completed SolidWorks training and began helping with drafting work for his father's engineering company. Back in Aotearoa, he now balances study with part-time work as a product development engineer, applying classroom learning directly to real-world projects. “Study has helped me understand the 'why' behind the work I've been doing,” he says. “Experience teaches you a lot, but study gives you the theory and bigger-picture thinking that connects everything together.”

While balancing assignments, work commitments and deadlines can be demanding, Declan says the support of kaiako and classmates has made a real difference. “I didn't expect to find tutors who care so much about your success,” he says. “There are genuinely great people here who want to see you do well.”

His enthusiasm for design has already led to projects he is particularly proud of, including creating a complex CAD assembly comprising hundreds of components and producing engineering drawings for a local lifting rig project. Looking ahead, Declan is excited by the opportunities the profession offers. He has a particular interest in metallurgy and hopes to one day combine his technical expertise with entrepreneurship.

More than anything, he is motivated by the chance to make a positive impact. “What excites me most is finding better solutions to the challenges we've inherited,” he says. “Engineering has the power to create real change, and that's something I want to be part of.”

Source: Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi

Unions, care and support providers, and community organisations have written an open letter to opposition parties asking them to commit to settling and fully funding the care and support workers’ pay equity claim within the first 100 days of the next Government based on the agreed undervaluation.

The open letter, signed by 29 organisations including all the unions involved in the claim, the provider peak bodies, and a number of employers, states that the claim was all but agreed when the current Government gutted the Equal Pay Act.

“This letter, signed by peak bodies in the care and support sector and unions, shows the widespread support for urgently settling this claim.”

“Care and support workers have waited too long already. The comparator roles are agreed, the level of undervaluation is agreed, the only action left is funding and settling the claim quickly,” said PSA Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi Assistant Secretary Melissa Woolley who was a negotiator for unions in the claim.

“Unions and employers spent hundreds of hours on the claim. They agreed the comparator roles. They found care and support workers were undervalued by between 24 and 38 percent.

“Settling this claim should be a top priority for the next Government in the first 100 days. Care and support workers are the backbone of our health system.

“A settlement only works if it is paid for. These services are mostly funded by the Crown. Providers cannot be left to find the money.

“Parties should build the settlement on what is agreed, and they should say now whether they will.”

The letter says any settlement must come with a commitment to fund:

• the direct costs of the pay equity settlement
• the flow-on pay adjustments across the wider care workforce, including those needed
• to maintain pay differentials that recognise qualifications, experience, clinical responsibilities and professional accountability

The letter says these costs must be built into the funding models for the services concerned, so providers do not absorb them.

Settling the claim would change the lives of the women who do this work. It would also benefit the wider economy. PSA analysis of Treasury modelling shows reinstating it would grow the economy by $13.5 billion over four years, create around 13,000 jobs, and lift an estimated 11,000 children out of poverty.

New Zealanders back it. A recent Talbot Mills poll found that New Zealanders would be prepared to delay the Government's return to surplus by a year to restore pay equity than oppose it, 49 percent to 28 percent.

Signatories:

1. Access
2. ActionStation
3. Aged Care Association New Zealand
4. Aotearoa Women’s Watch
5. Atamira Platform
6. Auckland Action Against Poverty
7. AUT Social Transformation Research Institute
8. BPW New Zealand
9. Carers New Zealand
10. CBCT
11. E tū
12. Disabled Persons Assembly NZ
13. Filipino Care Workers United
14. Home and Community Health Association
15. Migrant Action Trust
16. Mōkihi Hauora
17. National Council of Women of New Zealand
18. New Zealand Disability Support Network
19. New Zealand Nurses Organisation
20. NUPE
21. NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi
22. PSA Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi
23. Rodger Wright Harm Reduction Network
24. Te Mana Taki Havora Health Action Trust
25. Te Roopu Taurima
26. Te Wāhi Wāhine o Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland Women’s Centre
27. Totara Farm Trust
28. Working Women’s Resource Centre
29. YWCA

The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.

Source: Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington

It holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by three to four metres and, until recently, has been viewed as relatively stable. But a major new study is now calling for urgent research on East Antarctica’s Wilkes Subglacial Basin and its potential to dramatically increase sea-levels as the climate warms.

“The Wilkes Subglacial Basin is incredibly important for predicting future sea-level rise, but it’s also largely unexplored. The limited evidence we do have highlights the risk of rapid change as temperatures rise,” said study co-author Professor Nancy Bertler, a climate scientist at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington and Earth Sciences New Zealand.

Piecing together existing data on the region and using computer modelling to predict future changes, the study found retreat of this vast ice-filled basin could result in a sharp increase in meltwater, adding to sea-level rise and potentially disrupting ocean circulation and marine ecosystems.

Signs of change have already been seen. Since the 1990s, the basin’s main glacier—the Cook Glacier—has been thinning at an increasing rate. It currently discharges about 40 billion tonnes of ice each year.

“There is now broad scientific agreement that the basin has the potential to change under future warming, but we still don’t know how quickly change could occur, what climate thresholds may trigger large-scale retreat, and how much the basin may ultimately contribute to future sea-level rise,” said Professor Bertler.

These gaps in knowledge need to be urgently addressed, said lead author Professor Matt King from the University of Tasmania.

“The Wilkes Subglacial Basin is arguably the last unexplored place in Antarctica. No ship has ever been within 150 kilometres of the front of Cook Glacier. If we can understand this region and project its future better, we’ll be more prepared for future sea-level rise both here in the Pacific and globally,” said Professor King.

Risk of runaway retreat

The landscape hidden beneath the Wilkes Subglacial Basin is of major interest to scientists.

“The basin itself sits on bedrock that gets deeper inland, a feature that can lead to accelerating retreat as warmer seawater comes into contact with the ice and starts melting it from below. When this melting reaches a tipping point, the ice sheet can quickly become unstable,” said Professor Nick Golledge, an ice sheet modelling expert from Victoria University.

This phenomenon has been the focus of attention in parts of West Antarctica, where scientific efforts have largely been concentrated. It’s only recently been recognised that regions of East Antarctica have similar characteristics.

Clues to how the basin may change as the climate warms lie buried in marine sediment records from previous warm periods in Earth's history.

“Together, these sediment records and modelling studies indicate parts of this basin previously underwent substantial retreat when the Earth was warmer. The evidence points to a clear need to find out more about how this region will change as the climate warms,” said Professor Rob McKay, director of Victoria University’s Antarctic Research Centre.

International response needed

The study, co-authored by researchers from 14 countries, calls for a coordinated international effort to collect data on the Wilkes Subglacial Basin as quickly as possible.

Research priorities include mapping the seafloor and collecting sediment samples from deep beneath the basin to shine more light on changes that occurred in the past when the climate was similar to today’s.

“Existing seafloor maps are unreliable, we have sparse data on ocean temperatures, and sediment records are limited. We need to find out what’s happening beneath the sea ice—is warm ocean water already reaching the basin’s glaciers—as well as what’s happening on land,” said Professor Bertler.

Collecting this information will be no easy task. Thick sea-ice blocks regular ship and plane access for much of the year, hampering access to this remote region.

In response to changes occurring in the Antarctic sea-ice system, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research has established an action group to facilitate international collaboration, align research efforts, and coordinate field deployments. This initiative is led by Professor King, Professor Bertler, and Dr Laura De Santis from Italy's National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics.

“We’re asking governments, the scientific community, as well as philanthropists to support this research and help us find the answers to the crucial questions about the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and the climate risks it may be hiding,” said Professor Bertler.

The study is published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.