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Economy – Tariff ripples: Modelling the effects of US trade policy on the New Zealand economy

Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

16 March 2026 – The RBNZ has published an Analytical Note exploring the implications of changes in US tariff policy for the New Zealand economy.

What this paper is about
On 2 April 2025, the US government announced its intention to significantly increase tariffs on imported goods.

In this Note, we study the potential impact of these events on the New Zealand economy. We find that in the short-run, trade diversions and the appreciation of the New Zealand exchange rate create deflationary pressures. Lower inflation induces lower interest rates which boosts domestic output. Over time, however, there may be inflationary pressure as global supply chains become less efficient. The analysis in this Note supplements our other related studies on the impact of changes in US tariff policy, such as on the impact of uncertainty shocks.

Key findings

  • This Analytical Note explores the implications of changes in US tariff policy for the New Zealand economy, using the G-Cubed model to undertake scenario analysis. Our baseline scenario captures tariff announcements as of 31 July 2025. 
  • To capture the depreciation of the US Dollar following the tariff announcement, we further consider shifts in bond and exchange rate markets that are associated with an increased perception of risk in investing in US assets.
  • The shock is disinflationary in the short run as it leads to trade diversions and appreciation of the New Zealand currency which lower import prices. The disinflationary pressure induces lower interest rates supporting the domestic economy. Overall, despite the weaker export sector, the effect on domestic real GDP is relatively modest.
  • Over time however, global supply chains become more inefficient contributing towards higher import prices, creating some inflationary pressure by around 2030.

Why we did this research

On 2 April 2025, the US government announced its intention to significantly increase tariffs on imported goods. Estimates suggest that the breadth and magnitude of tariff increases would have seen the effective tariff rate on imported goods into the Unites States rise to the highest level in over a century. Since then, there have been changes to the specifics of the US tariff policy as well as to the reciprocal tariffs set by US trading partners, heightening uncertainty around the global trade policy environment for New Zealand.

The resulting disruptions to the global trade may affect the New Zealand macroeconomy through export demand, import prices, supply chains, and global financial conditions. In this Note, we study the impact of the changes to the US tariff policy through the lens of the G-cubed model. The model is a global trade model that features disaggregated country- and sectoral-level details. Alternative scenarios are examined to capture the evolving situations around the global tariff environment.  

What data have we used?
The calibration and estimation of the parameters in the G-cubed model are done by the external model developers. The data used originate from various sources, such as the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, IMF, World Bank, OECD, United Nations, the US Energy Information Administration, and the University of Groningen Growth and Development Centre.

More information:

Effects of US Trade Policy on the New Zealand Economy: https://govt.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bd316aa7ee4f5679c56377819&id=5fb6033bf4&e=f3c68946f8

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Arts Grants – Do you have a completed draft of your manuscript that’s ready to take to the next level?

Source: NZSA

NZSA 2026 CompleteMS Programme – Do you have a completed draft of your manuscript that's ready to take to the next level? Poetry, fiction, short fiction, non-fiction…

Apply now for the NZSA Te Puni Kaituhi O Aotearoa CompleteMS Manuscript Assessment Programme: https://authors.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=905a5275ec5c023659502ec21&id=ef6ef93ca8&e=466373ae7c

The NZSA CompleteMS assessment programme is open for applications
 until 28 May 2026.

CompleteMS is for writers who have completed a manuscript through a number of drafts and now require the objective view of an experienced assessor to provide a constructive critique.

The thirteen successful applications will receive essential critical written feedback (followed by a Q+A session) from an NZSA Assessor on an advanced work, moving it closer to publication.

To apply for this professional development opportunity you need to be a current member of The New Zealand Society of Authors Te Puni Kaituhi o Aotearoa (PEN NZ) Inc. Membership of NZSA is $150 per annum, with a reduced rate for students – more about membership here: https://authors.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=905a5275ec5c023659502ec21&id=3b051fb2e8&e=466373ae7c

The New Zealand Society of Authors Te Puni Kaituhi O Aotearoa seeks to reflect and expand the depth and breadth of Aotearoa New Zealand writing and welcomes applications from diverse writers working across a range of genres and writing disciplines. We tag three places on the programme each year for diverse writers.

Further information and application forms: https://authors.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=905a5275ec5c023659502ec21&id=e009bd3985&e=466373ae7c

Some comments on the assessment experience:

From writer's who have received assessments through CompleteMS:

'The comments were insightful, applicable, and specific. I feel as though I left this assessment with concrete next steps not only for my manuscript but also for my ongoing practice.'
'The Q&A session was really useful as I was able to brainstorm plot tweaks and improvements on the spot and get instant feedback about whether I was on the right track now. '

From our NZSA Assessors:

Award-winning author and assessor Rosetta Allan says: 'I believe this programme is of real value to writers. It provides not only professional feedback but also a sense of being taken seriously at a critical stage in their development. The combination of written assessment and Q&A dialogue offers both direction and encouragement, helping writers see their work through an industry lens while still supporting their creative ownership. For many, it may be the first time their manuscript is engaged with at this depth, which can be transformative.'
CompleteMS programme assessor, author, editor and creative writing lecturer Siobhan Harvey says: This is an absolutely indispensable service offered by the NZSA to a key author market.

The annual CompleteMS Programme is made possible with support from Creative New Zealand.
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Fire Safety – Total fire ban as risk escalates in parts of Nelson and Tasman Districts

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand

Fire and Emergency New Zealand will enforce bans and restrictions on outdoor fires in much of the Nelson-Tasman area from tomorrow morning (Monday 16 March) due to the escalating fire risk.
This includes a Prohibited Fire Season in the Coastal, Waimea and Lake Rotoiti fire zones, where all outdoor fires will be completely banned, and a Restricted Fire Season in the Murchison zone, where outdoor fires will require a permit.
Announcing the fire season changes, District Manager Grant Haywood said no further permits would be issued until conditions ease across the area. Recent rain has not had a significant impact on the underlying fire risk, and he urged people not to be complacent.
“Fires will start and spread very easily and will be more challenging for our firefighters to contain and put out in these conditions,” he said. “If anyone sees signs of smoke, please call 111 immediately.”
Anyone considering an outdoor fire can easily see whether their location is covered by the total ban or the restricted fire season by going to www.checkitsalright.nz
Notes: 
The Coastal, Waimea and Lake Rotoiti fire zones incorporate most of the land within the Nelson and Tasman Districts, extending from and including Abel Tasman National Park, Nelson Lakes National Park, Kahurangi National Park (east of the Mt Arthur Range), Richmond Ranges and all of the areas of the Waimea Plains and urban settlements.
The Murchison zone runs from west of Glenhope and includes Longford, Mangles Valley, Matakitaki, Shenandoah and Murchison township. 
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International travel: January 2026 – Stats NZ information release

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International migration: January 2026 – Stats NZ information release

 

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Education – Ara celebrates milestone as 900 graduates cross the stage

Source: Ara Institute of Canterbury

Ara Institute of Canterbury has marked a major milestone in its return to independent status, with over 900 graduates filling Ōtautahi’s Wolfbrook Arena in two vibrant Autumn ceremonies on Friday 13 March.
A total of 1800 ākonga (students) were eligible to graduate this year, with half choosing to walk across the stage in front of whānau, friends and staff. The arena was filled twice over with waiata, haka and standing ovations as Ara celebrated its first graduation ceremonies since becoming a standalone polytechnic once again.
Graduates represented a wide range of disciplines – from construction management and engineering to cookery, early childhood education, business and broadcasting. The cohort included 65 postgraduate awardees, 586 bachelor’s degree or graduate diploma recipients, and 1123 graduates completing certificates and diplomas at Levels 4-6.
Associate Director of Māori Success Tate Tiatia opened the ceremony by acknowledging the collective effort behind each and every ākonga’s story.
“Achievement doesn’t come easily. It doesn’t happen in isolation. It takes effort and support. Be proud. You can move forward in confidence to navigate new environments and seek out new horizons,” she said.
One of the most moving moments came as the arena fell silent to honour two deaf graduates. Hands shimmered across the stands in New Zealand Sign Language as Danielle Elliott and Liberty Francis received their New Zealand Certificate in Health and Wellbeing.
Elliott said the sense of community had defined her study experience. “Having that connection and family environment was the main thing. We had a great class vibe,” she said.
Mother and son graduates Linda Glasgow ( Diploma in Business – Leadership & Management) and Jack Glasgow ( Diploma in Construction – Quantity Surveying) were delighted to be marking the moment together.
“I wasn't going to do graduation but to be able to do it with Jack is really special,” Linda said.
Jack, on leave from his graduate role with Seipp Construction, said it was “great to see mum's achievements rewarded”.
Bachelor of Applied Science (Nutrition) graduate Lani Pitcher led the morning ceremony.
A previous recipient of Ara’s Eke Panuku Māori – Transformation Award, she will return to Taranaki this weekend to begin a role with Hāto Hone St John.
“I came here as a single mother with a one-year-old son and a big dream. I wasn’t just starting study – I was starting over,” she said.
“I’m grateful to Ara for creating a place that welcomes people from all walks of life, where learners can grow, where doors open, and where we are encouraged to bring our full, authentic selves into our study.”
Ara’s new board chair, Hugh Lindo, said the ceremonies marked a proud moment for the organisation under Chief Executive Darren Mitchell.
“We’re excited to be working with Darren and his team as we plot Ara’s future in a way that ensures we meet the expectations of learners and the industries they will join.
“Our team will be doing all it can to provide the best vocational opportunities to our ākonga and give them the tools they need to be successful in a diverse and ever-changing world.”
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Northland News – Strong foundations driving economic growth

Source: Northland Regional Council

Northland is entering a period of significant opportunity as regional partners, iwi, and industry leaders work together to strengthen Taitokerau’s economic future, the chair of the Joint Regional Economic Development Committee says.
Speaking today (subs: Friday 13 March) in Kerikeri at an event held by Ngāti Hine to mark the start of the kiwifruit season, regional councillor Geoff Crawford highlighted Taitokerau’s unique strengths and the energy building across the region.
“Northland is a region with extraordinary potential,” he says. “Our natural beauty, our communities, and our history of resilience and enterprise give us a foundation that many regions would envy.”
“Today’s gathering shows how closely our economic story is tied to the land and the people who care for it.”
Councillor Crawford told those at the gathering that improved infrastructure and connectivity are central to unlocking Northland’s economic potential.
Through the Joint Regional Economic Development Committee – made up of all four Northland councils – work was underway to develop a coordinated Northland Infrastructure Plan.
“Better roads, rail, and port capacity transform how businesses operate here,” he says. “For growers, infrastructure determines how quickly fruit reaches packhouses, how safely workers travel, and how reliably products get to market.”
Projects linked to Northport and the wider Marsden Point area were already opening the door to new logistics, manufacturing, and export opportunities across the region.
He says Northland’s primary industries remain a cornerstone of regional prosperity.
“Last season, the region’s kiwifruit sector earned a record $80 million in orchard gate returns from 700 hectares of production, and early forecasts suggest another strong year ahead.”
Councillor Crawford says more than 1500 people currently work in Northland’s horticultural sector, with half of those jobs in the Far North.
“There is huge potential for agriculture, horticulture, and forestry to move further up the value chain.” “By embracing processing, technology, and sustainability, we create higher-value products and more skilled jobs right here in Northland.”
He says the region is expanding beyond traditional summer tourism, with Northland Inc, the region’s tourism organisation, facilitating several initiatives.
“Eco-tourism, cultural tourism, and marine tourism create year-round employment while protecting the natural environment that makes Northland special.”
Meanwhile, Cr Crawford emphasises that long-term prosperity depends on investing in people, skills, and partnerships.
“Economic opportunity grows when local people have access to education, training, and pathways into meaningful careers,” he says. “Collaboration between iwi, business, government, and education providers ensures that development benefits stay within our communities.”
He highlights the strength of the Māori economy as a defining feature of Northland’s future and says Ngāti Hine’s leadership is a clear example of innovation happening on the ground.
Its recognition as a finalist for the Ahuwhenua Trophy – following Whangaroa Ngaiotonga Trust’s win in 2025 – demonstrates the impact of Māori-led ventures. (The trophy acknowledges and celebrates Māori business excellence in New Zealand's pastoral and horticultural sectors.)
“These successes show what is possible when cultural values, industry expertise, and regional ambition come together.”
Councillor Crawford says ultimately regional development is about people and communities.
“Prosperity means young people can build careers without leaving home, families can thrive, and communities feel optimistic about the future.”
He acknowledges the work of Pukerau Orchard and Ngāti Hine as examples of regional strength in action.
“This whenua, the mahi invested in it, and the vision guiding it show how Māori enterprise is creating pathways for prosperity – not just for today’s workforce, but for generations to come.”
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Energy – GasNZ reassures customers that “gas decline” stories are not about LPG supply

Source: GasNZ

Despite the diminishing supplies of natural gas in New Zealand, there is no shortage of LPG, GasNZ says.

Chief executive Jeffrey Clarke says most of the news about declining ‘gas’ production in New Zealand is actually about ‘natural gas’, and is not relevant to ‘LPG gas’ users.

“LPG supplies are not declining like natural gas is,” he says.

There are 300,000 customers of LPG in New Zealand – including all South Island ‘gas’ consumers – who don’t have to worry about the decline in natural gas affecting them.

People sometimes ask how they can be sure whether their gas is LPG or natural gas, Clarke says.

“It’s pretty simple – if your gas comes in a cylinder or tank, then it is LPG.

“If you are a South Islander, then your gas is LPG – because there is no natural gas supply in the South Island.

“And if your gas is piped to your home or business in the North Island, then it is probably natural gas.”

Clarke says that if you are in any doubt, just check with your retailer.

And what despite the war in the Middle East – LPG suppliers in New Zealand say that they have plenty of stock, he says.

“Most of New Zealand’s LPG comes from Australia and USA, with some produced here domestically.

“None of the LPG New Zealand imports is shipped through the Middle East.”

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BusinessNZ – Gas report highlights urgency of securing NZ’s energy transition

Source: BusinessNZ

The BusinessNZ Energy Council (BEC) welcomes new analysis providing greater transparency on the future of New Zealand’s natural gas sector, saying it reinforces the scale and urgency of the supply challenge facing the economy.
BusinessNZ Chief Executive Katherine Rich says a new report commissioned by natural gas industry body Gas Industry Co confirms that New Zealand faces a rapid and unprecedented decline in domestic gas supply.
“BEC has been raising concerns about declining natural gas availability since its Gas Users Forum last year, warning of the risks to businesses and the wider economy if supply continues to fall without credible alternatives.
“Evidence of the strain is already emerging. This latest report notes that high gas prices and supply uncertainty are forcing some users to cut production, raise prices or close operations. These trends were also identified in BEC’s gas users survey last year. Introducing LNG imports from 2028 could materially ease the pressure.”
Rich says a pathway combining local gas with LNG imports would support a smoother transition, giving the energy sector time to build additional renewable generation and network capacity, while allowing consumers and businesses to move away from gas at a manageable pace.
“But even with LNG imports, without viable transition pathways for businesses, reductions on that scale risk economic contraction, job losses and business closures.
“Ensuring New Zealand has a realistic transition pathway is critical. Businesses need time, certainty and workable alternatives if they are to adapt while continuing to invest, produce and employ New Zealanders.”
The BusinessNZ Network including BusinessNZ, EMA, Business Central and Business South, represents and provides services to thousands of businesses, small and large, throughout New Zealand.
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Events – 24 hours to go: Hamilton gears up as Jim Beam Homegrown prepares to burst into song

Source: Brainchild for Jim Beam Homegrown

“Climb over your mates if you have to but don’t miss out on tickets for Jim Beam Homegrown in Hamilton this weekend.”

That’s the message from local businessman, entrepreneur, hotelier and ultimate Jim Beam Homegrown fan Pienaar Piso as the Festival enters its final hours before gates open on Saturday.

In just over 24 hours’ time, one of Aotearoa’s most iconic music festivals will return to Hamilton for the first time after 18 years on Wellington’s waterfront, transforming Claudelands Oval in Kirikiriroa into a full-scale Kiwi music playground.

And Hamiltonians are ready!

“We have been counting down to this since the day it was announced,” says Vanessa Williams, General Manager of the Hamilton Central Business Association. “Events like this bring incredible energy into the city. It is not just about the festival itself, it is about people exploring Hamilton, discovering new places and supporting local businesses along the way. We want every visitor to feel like a local while they are here.”

Jim Beam Homegrown CEO and managing director Andrew Tuck says the festival site has shifted into full festival mode.

“This is the moment where everything comes together,” says Tuck. “The stages are built, the sound systems are firing up and crews are moving at full pace to get every last detail locked in. You can feel the buzz building already. The artists are arriving, the city is humming and the stage is set for an epic celebration of Kiwi music.”

Over the past three weeks, hundreds of crew members, technicians and suppliers have been working around the clock transforming Claudelands Oval into a multi-stage festival destination.

Wherever possible, local Waikato suppliers have been part of the build — from scaffolding and staging to fencing, electricians, lighting, security and food vendors.

“It’s been incredible to see the scale of work going into bringing this event to life,” says Tuck. “We’ve had a huge response from the Waikato community and a lot of local businesses have played a role in getting us to this point.”

While the festival marks a return to its regional roots, the Hamilton event is arriving bigger than ever.

Two additional stages have been added this year, expanding the range of music and experiences for festival goers. The inaugural Precision Live Dance Stage will also add a new dimension, with some of Aotearoa’s best street and break dancers battling it out throughout the day.

With the schedule confirmed, the site nearly show-ready, and the final sound checks underway, the countdown is almost complete.

“Right now it’s all about the final touches,” says Tuck. “Tomorrow the gates open and Hamilton becomes the home of Kiwi music.”

Brainchild on behalf of homegrown.net.nz

About Jim Beam Homegrown

Jim Beam Homegrown is New Zealand's largest Kiwi-only music festival, celebrating the best of Aotearoa's musical talent. Established in 2008 in Hamilton, initially as X*Air, an extreme sports festival, Jim Beam Homegrown showcases a wide range of genres, including rock, funk, pop, reggae, hip-hop, and electronic music.    

Tickets to the inaugural Hamilton event can be found at www.homegrown.net.nz