MIL Email Publisher (NZ)

•             Easing oil prices have strengthened New Zealand’s outlook and reduced the risk of a prolonged inflation shock
•             Lower fuel costs and stronger than expected economic momentum have put New Zealand’s recovery back on firmer footing
•             Geopolitical risks remain a key watchpoint, but the immediate threat to household spending and business costs has eased.

New Zealand’s economic outlook has markedly improved in recent months, with falling oil prices easing pressure on inflation, household budgets and business costs, according to ASB's latest Economic Forecast Update.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says the sharp decline in global oil prices has materially changed the outlook since ASB’s March forecast: https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/asb/documents/reports/quarterly-economic-forecasts/asb-forecast-update_mar26a.pdf

“The New Zealand economy has shown greater resilience than many expected in the face of global uncertainty and higher fuel prices,” says Nick.

“While geopolitical risks remain elevated, falling oil prices have significantly reduced one of the biggest risks to growth and inflation this year.”

Global oil prices have dropped sharply from their March peaks amid hopes that negotiations between Iran and the United States will ease disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. While shipping through the Strait remains disrupted and energy infrastructure has been damaged, fuel prices have declined substantially in recent months, reducing pressure on inflation and easing the squeeze on household spending.

“Higher fuel prices were starting to crowd out household spending and lift business costs across the economy,” says Nick.

“Those pressures are now easing substantially. Consumers are likely to feel more confident than they did earlier in the year, and businesses have greater certainty about their cost environment.”

The New Zealand economy entered 2026 with stronger momentum than previously estimated. GDP rose 0.8% in the March quarter, while revised 2025 data showed growth was stronger than previously thought and becoming more broad-based across the economy.

However, Nick says elevated fuel prices and heightened uncertainty are still expected to weigh on activity through the middle of 2026.

“The recovery has not been derailed, but it has been delayed. Household spending, business investment and some export sectors are still feeling the effects of the oil shock, and the labour market remains soft.”

Inflation remains a key focus. ASB forecasts annual CPI inflation will rise to around 4.1% in the June 2026 year, driven largely by earlier fuel price increases. However, falling oil prices are expected to ease inflation pressure through the second half of the year and into 2027.

“The inflation outlook remains highly uncertain and depends heavily on developments in the Middle East,” says Nick. “But the recent fall in oil prices means inflation now looks considerably less challenging than it did a few months ago.”

The changing inflation outlook is expected to give the Reserve Bank more time to assess economic conditions before raising interest rates. ASB Economists now expect the Official Cash Rate to remain on hold until September before gradually increasing through late 2026 and early 2027.

Looking ahead, ASB expects the recovery to continue gradually, supported by resilient commodity prices, recovering tourism and lower fuel costs, although geopolitical risks remain elevated. Dairy and meat export sectors continue to benefit from strong global demand, while tourism has recovered to 93% of pre-COVID visitor levels.

“The outlook has improved, but uncertainty remains high,” says Nick.

“It would only take one significant geopolitical shock to reverse recent gains, so businesses and households still need to prepare for a range of possible outcomes. For now, though, the recovery appears to be back on track.”

The Real Estate Authority (REA) welcomes the passage of the the Regulatory Systems (Occupational Regulation) Amendment Bill, which brings amendments to the Real Estate Agents Act 2008 (the Act), through the third reading.

REA Chief Executive, Belinda Moffat says the amendments will help to enhance the regulatory regime for licensed real estate professionals overseen by REA, and support REA’s role as the conduct regulator of the real estate profession and consumer protection agency.

“It strengthens REA’s ability to protect consumers, whilst also improving the efficiency of the system we oversee and relieving some of the constraints and compliance burdens, including by making the regulatory scope proportionate to the risk.”

“One of the amendments will enable REA to require a person to provide documents to REA where we have reasonable grounds to believe that someone is unlicensed and carrying out real estate agency work or has contravened the Act, or associated regulations or practice rules. This will assist REA to better assess consumer complaints and investigate unlicensed trading concerns”, Ms Moffat says.

Another amendment removes the mandatory five-year standdown if a licensee fails to complete their annual Continuing Professional Development (CPD) requirements.

The definition of unsatisfactory conduct has been amended to enable Complaints Assessment Committees to also consider conduct that is not connected to a specific transaction but which falls short of the standard a reasonable member of the public is entitled to expect of a licensee, or which agents of good standing would reasonably regard as being unacceptable conduct of a licensee.

Other changes to the Act include changing REA’s statutory name to Real Estate Authority (formerly the Real Estate Agents Authority). The Bill allows for an implementation period with nearly all changes coming into force eight months after Royal Assent. The removal of the requirement for the REA Board Chair to be a lawyer takes effect upon Royal Assent.

Chief Executive Belinda Moffat says, we are pleased to see the passage of the Bill. The changes reflect advice that REA provided to the Ministry of Justice on ways to improve the system in 2022.”

“We look forward to working with the Ministry of Justice and the real estate sector to ensure the smooth implementation of these changes over the coming months”, Ms Moffat says.

Notes

A short summary of Regulatory Systems (Occupational Regulation) Amendment Bill (RSAB) changes affecting the Real Estate Agents Act (2008) and REA are set out below. Further detail will be provided on REA’s website in due course. For full details please see the Bill which is available on the Parliament website here: Regulatory Systems (Occupational Regulation) Amendment Bill

About REA

The Real Estate Authority (REA) is the independent government agency that regulates the conduct of licensed real estate professionals in New Zealand (salespeople, branch managers, agents and agencies). We license people and companies working in real estate, provide oversight of the code of conduct, oversee the complaints and disciplinary process for poor conduct by licensees, provide education and guidance to licensees to assist them to meet their regulatory obligations, and provide information to consumers about the real estate transaction process. REA is governed by a Board. The Chair is Denese Bates KC. REA Chief Executive/Registrar is Belinda Moffat.

People who have concerns about the conduct of a real estate professional can contact the Real Estate Authority (REA) – visit rea.govt.nz or call 0800 367 732. Consumers seeking independent information about buying and selling property can visit REA’s consumer website settled.govt.nz.

Consumer NZ has launched a flight complaints portal for passengers to share complaints and learn about their rights, whether they've had a cancelled or delayed flight, a missing bag or another airline problem.

The advocacy organisation will consolidate the complaints it receives and put them to the airlines and government for action. People who use the portal will also get access to Consumer’s top tips for navigating travel troubles.

Research by Consumer found that nine out of 10 people are not fully aware of their flight rights, and more than three quarters of travellers rely on the airline for information about their rights.  

Unlike many other countries, including those in the EU, in New Zealand there are no rules requiring airlines to tell passengers about their rights if things go wrong.

“If people take the time to share their experience with us, they will be helping to build the case for better communication of passengers’ flight rights,” says Jessica Walker, Consumer campaigns manager.

Fighting for a fairer deal

Earlier this year, Consumer delivered a flight rights petition to parliament, signed by more than 10,500 people, calling on the government to require airlines to tell passengers their rights when flights are delayed or cancelled.

“Last week, we were invited to speak to the parliamentary petitions committee about our flight rights petition,” Walker says.

“We urged the committee to make regulations requiring airlines to clearly inform passengers of their rights at the point of disruption – just like in Europe.

“While the politicians consider our request, we, a not-for-profit, are filling the information gap to try and protect passengers from being left out of pocket when their flights don’t go to plan.”

Your rights explained

Consumer has also launched a new flight rights information hub that clearly explains passenger rights in different scenarios.

“Many passengers don’t know that they have legal protections under the Civil Aviation Act and the Consumer Guarantees Act,” Walker says.

When delays or cancellations are within an airline’s control, a passenger has specific rights. For example, if a domestic flight is delayed due to operational issues, the passenger can ask the airline to reimburse any reasonable costs they incur beause of the cost of the delay, up to 10 times the cost of the ticket.

If an international flight is cancelled or delayed and the airline is at fault, passengers are often entitled to a refund and to claim back other costs too. International flight rights depend on where you are, where you are heading, and, sometimes, where the airline is based. More than one set of rules might apply to the same journey.

“The law is so complex, so unclear and so poorly communicated that most people don’t realise they have rights – let alone how to enforce them. And if people don’t know their rights, those rights might as well not exist,” Walker says.

“Whether it’s a domestic flight cancellation, international flight delay or luggage that’s damaged or missing – we’ve got your back.”