Analysis – Record earnings are masking the market’s biggest risk – deVere Group

Source: deVere Group

August 13 2026
Claims this week that this is the strongest corporate earnings environment in history, with barely a case for caution, are being directly challenged by the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organisations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group's comments come as global spending on AI infrastructure heads toward $650bn this year, corporate earnings hit fresh records, and the S&P 500 pushes past 7,700, even as the accounting, financing and valuation assumptions underneath that strength draw mounting scrutiny.

He says: “Calling this the best earnings environment in history, and saying that a bear case takes creativity, gets it backwards.

“The real risk is hiding inside the numbers everyone is celebrating, not outside them.”

He continues: “Start with how these profits are being produced.

Hyperscale tech companies are depreciating AI hardware over five to six years.

“Independent estimates put the real replacement cycle closer to two or three years, given how fast this equipment is being superseded.

“Stretch the depreciation schedule and today's expense shrinks, which flatters today's profit.

“If that gap is even half right, a meaningful slice of this year's record earnings is a timing choice, not organic strength, and the bill still comes due.”

Global AI infrastructure spending is on course for somewhere between $600bn and $700bn this year alone, and capital on that scale only makes sense if it produces durable returns for years to come.

“Right now that payback timeline is an assumption rather than a demonstrated fact, and betting a record earnings season on an unproven assumption is not strength, it's exposure dressed up as confidence,” notes the deVere CEO.

He adds: “Layer on how a growing share of this spending is financed.

Suppliers of the infrastructure are investing directly in the companies buying it, who are committing spending straight back into the suppliers in return.

“This circularity doesn't automatically signal anything improper, but it does mean a portion of the revenue and profit being applauded right now is the industry partly funding itself, which is far more fragile than the headline growth figures suggest.”

There is also a popular argument that persistent scepticism is itself bullish, the theory being that doubters eventually capitulate and buy in, and that capitulation fuels the next leg higher.

“I would treat that theory with real suspicion.

Scepticism that refuses to break is not evidence it's misplaced, it may simply mean the sceptics are seeing something the rally has not priced in yet.”

Stack stretched valuations on top of all of this and the picture gets harder to defend, not easier.

Multiples of 40 to 55 times revenue are being justified almost entirely by the strength of the earnings story just described.

Pull on any one thread, the depreciation assumptions, the financing circularity, the payback timeline, and the valuation sitting on top of it starts to look far less secure than the headline numbers suggest.

He concludes: “None of this means investors should panic or walk away from the AI trade altogether, because the underlying technology and demand are genuinely real, but the claim that this is the safest, strongest earnings environment in history, with no credible case for caution, simply does not hold up.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

NAKIMUSHI, a Japanese townhouse restaurant, opens Monday, 7th of September 2026 in Notting Hill

Source: NAKIMUSHI

August 2026 – NAKIMUSHI, the new Japanese townhouse restaurant from the team behind Michelin-starred Dorian, EEL Sushi, Supermarket of Dreams and the Notting Hill Fish+Meat Shop, will officially open on Monday, 7th September 2026.

Located just moments from Notting Hill Gate, NAKIMUSHI is a dual-format Japanese townhouse led by Chef Yuji Shimokawa Kelly and Chef Robin Kosuge. Bringing together their hugely popular Urchin and Robin's Ramen residencies under one permanent roof, the three-storey restaurant offers two distinct yet complementary experiences, united by a shared commitment to exceptional produce and traditional Japanese techniques.

Spanning three floors, the ground floor is dedicated to a fast-paced ramen bar centred around an open kitchen and communal seating, serving Tokyo-style ramen alongside a concise menu of snacks and cold starters. Upstairs, a more intimate 25-seat restaurant and bar explores a broader approach to contemporary Japanese cooking while keeping ramen at the heart of the menu. Together, the two spaces reflect the chefs' distinct expressions of Japanese cuisine.

The Interiors
Set within a narrow, three-storey listed Victorian townhouse on Kensington Mall, NAKIMUSHI has been carefully restored to balance Japanese design sensibilities with the building’s original architectural character. Guests enter beneath a custom-made noren, through a deep oxblood shopfront set against the original brick façade.

Inside, the townhouse is enveloped in pale timber, extending across panelled walls, cabinetry and gridded ceilings. Parquet flooring, satin-finished brass, and hand-glazed Japanese Kit Kat tiles in varying shades of oxblood create a restrained, warm atmosphere with the deep red colour theme carried throughout all three floors.
The open kitchen dominates the street-level dining room, where steaming broths, smoking robata grills and shelves of carefully organised ingredients create the lively energy of a traditional Tokyo ramen shop. A long communal table and individual stools run through the centre of the dining room, with additional seating at the window counter.

Upstairs, the daylight-filled dining room provides a calmer setting, with timber tables and chairs framed by leather banquettes, brass table lamps and softly reflective metalwork. The bar sits within the dining room, with a richly coloured tiled counter backed by mirrored, temperature-controlled wine cabinets. Above, a suspended brass rack holds rows of fine glassware.

The top floor is home to the chefs’ preparation kitchen and a temperature-controlled showcase larder, allowing guests a glimpse of the restaurant's produce before it reaches the plate.

The Menu
The ground-floor dining places ramen at the centre of the experience, with guests able to enjoy dishes at the communal table, at the window counter, or to take away. 

Signature bowls include Robin’s celebrated Lobster Ramen with Seafood Paitan and Komatsuna, and Charshu Pork Belly Ramen made with Basque Chicken Broth and Ajitama. Alongside the ramen is a concise selection of snacks and cold plates, including Wild Hamachi with Yukari Ponzu and Nori Oil; Namayasai Salad, Shio Koji Dressing; and Corn Tempura with Fig Leaf Salt. Service is intentionally energetic, inspired by the pace and atmosphere of Tokyo’s back-street ramen shops.

On the first floor, the menu broadens to explore hot Japanese cooking using carefully sourced ingredients from trusted producers. Smaller dishes include Red Prawn and Courgette Gyoza with Umeboshi; Quail Tempura with Jerk Tendashi and Apricot Purée; and Chicken Karaage with Chive Oroshi and Ponzu.

Larger plates, designed to share, include line-caught Steamed Turbot with Red Vinegar An; Grilled Ibérico x Duroc Pork Loin with Red Almond Miso; and Grilled Tuna Kama with Padrón Pepper Dashi and Kimizu. While the offering expands beyond the ramen bar below, ramen remains a defining feature throughout NAKIMUSHI, connecting the restaurant’s two distinct experiences.

The Drinks
Within the first-floor dining room is a bar serving a succinct list of well-crafted cocktails built around Japanese spirits, ingredients and flavours. These include the Shochu Highballs – the popular Japanese drinks combining shochu and carbonated water. Available in both full and low-alcohol versions, these include the Midori-Hai, made with shochu, Midori, Miso Sherry and Shiso, and the Hato-Hai, a shochu take on the Paloma made with Maraschino and Grapefruit – its name taken from hato, the Japanese word for dove.

The drinks list continues with a wide choice of sakes and nama sakes – unpasteurised sakes with bright, fruit-led and punchy flavours. To finish the meal, a selection of aged, full-bodied sakes is available by the glass, including Shirayuki Edo Genroku, a dark amber Junmai brewed by Konishi Shuzo using a recipe dating to 1703, and Hayashi Honten Golden Amber, a rare 12-year-old Junmai Koshu.

The wine list brings together an extensive collection with a particular focus on Burgundy and Italian wines, alongside the carefully selected sake and cocktail offering, chosen to complement the cooking across the restaurant.

Bookings from the 7th September onwards can be made via Sevenrooms HERE (https://www.sevenrooms.com/explore/nakimushi/reservations/create/search/)

Notes

Website: nakimushi.co.uk (https://nakimushi.co.uk/)

Yuji Shimokawa Kelly
Yuji Shimokawa Kelly is a Japanese-British Chef who began his culinary career as part of the opening team at Dinings SW3. Born and raised in London, he spent a year and a half travelling and working in Japan, predominantly in the Japanese Alps. When he moved back to London, he joined the 2-Michelin-star restaurant Umu in Mayfair under the tutelage of Yoshinori Iishi for four years. During lockdown, he was introduced to entrepreneur Chris D’Sylva and Chef Robin Kosuge at the Notting Hill Fish + Meat Shop, before joining the team at Dorian, helping to achieve their first star. Due to Yuji’s expertise and years of training in Japanese fine cuisine, Chris offered him the opportunity to open URCHIN, which began as a 10-seat counter in Sifnos, Greece, and later became a 12-month pop-up in Supermarket of Dreams. He now leads NAKIMUSHI alongside Robin Kosuge as joint Head Chef.

Robin Kosuge
Robin Kosuge was born in London to a Polish mother and a Japanese father. He trained at culinary school before gaining early experience at an okonomiyaki restaurant in Leicester Square and later at Kouzu, in Belgravia, where he was first introduced to the fundamentals of pastry. He went on to work in pastry at Selfridges and in a boulangerie in Paris before moving to Tokyo to join Dominique Ansel, where he spent two years. After returning to London in 2019, a chance encounter led him to train in sushi alongside Yuji Robertson at Chris D’Sylva’s Notting Hill Meat+Fish Shop. Following further travels across Asia and Europe, Robin joined the opening team at Dorian in 2022. Having spent years researching ramen in both Paris and Japan, he introduced Robin’s Ramen – a one-day pop-up at EEL Sushi in the summer of 2025, before expanding the concept into an eight-month residency at Supermarket of Dreams, which ran from October that year until May 2026. He now leads NAKIMUSHI alongside Yuji Shimokawa Kelly as joint Head Chef.

Chris D’Sylva
Originally from Melbourne, entrepreneur Chris D’Sylva began his career in brand strategy before moving to London to pursue ventures in food. In 2019, he opened the Notting Hill Fish+Meat Shop, followed in 2020 by the Supermarket of Dreams, a community-focused retail space created during lockdown to support both local residents and London’s independent food businesses. He is also the owner of the Michelin-starred Dorian in Notting Hill and the owner of EEL Sushi on Talbot Road. Chris continues to develop projects that blend hospitality, retail, and collaboration.

Small Malaita constituency lauds PRC’s continued support for community development, receives SBD100,000 grant assistance

Source: Solomon Islands Government Ministry of Rural Development

DATE: THURSDAY 13TH AUGUST, 2026

The Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) is one of the 24 ministries within the Solomon Islands Government (SIG) machinery. MRD was established on 28 September 2007.

Its core mandate, as contained under Legal Notice 164 in accordance with the Constitution of Solomon Islands, is to oversee the effective planning and implementation of Government’s Rural Development Policies.

Its vision is to ensure all rural Solomon Islanders meaningfully participate in development activities to improve their social and economic livelihood.

Website: https://solomons.gov.sb/ The Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) is one of the 24 ministries within the Small Malaita constituency lauds PRC's continued support for community development, receives SBD100,000 grant assistance The Small Malaita Constituency Office has commended the People's Republic of China's Embassy in Honiara for its continued support of community development in Solomon Islands, after receiving SBD100,000 in grant assistance under the Embassy's Small and Sustainable Development Project Fund, marking another milestone in strengthening rural development and improving community livelihoods.

The funding will go towards the purchase of two boats and one engine, for AIAU Association from Tawaro village and a family of seven sisters from Fanalei village.

The project aims to improve sea transportation, giving rural communities safer and more reliable access to markets, health services, schools, and other essential services.

Constituency Development Officer (CDO) Brown Honimae expressed his sincere appreciation to the Government of the People's Republic of China for their continued support of community development in Small Malaita and Solomon Islands as a whole.

Honimae said the assistance reflects the strong partnership and enduring friendship between Solomon Islands and the People's Republic of China, with tangible benefits reaching rural communities.

“This funding will directly improve the lives of our people by providing a reliable means of sea transportation.

For many of our rural communities, boats are not a luxury but a necessity, connecting people to essential services and economic opportunities,”

Honimae said.

He added that the constituency remains committed to ensuring development assistance is channelled through a fair and transparent process, directed toward projects with a lasting, meaningful impact on people's lives.

Honimae also acknowledged the Chinese Embassy for its ongoing support through the Small and Sustainable Development Project Fund, noting that such assistance complements the constituency's development priorities and contributes to the welfare of rural communities.

The Small Malaita Constituency Office reaffirmed its commitment to working closely with development partners to deliver practical and sustainable projects that improve the quality of life for its people.

SAFE Statement: Animal welfare committee compromised by farming lobby ties

Source: SAFE For Animals

Animal rights organisation SAFE is raising serious conflict of interest concerns after the National Animal Welfare Advisory Committee (NAWAC) confirmed it will retain committee member Sandra Faulkner following her election as Vice President of Federated Farmers.

At NAWAC's July committee meeting, Ms Faulkner stated she planned to remain on the committee despite recently being elected to one of the most senior leadership positions within New Zealand's largest farming lobby group. SAFE subsequently wrote to NAWAC Chair Dr Matthew Stone seeking clarification and received confirmation that Ms Faulkner would be staying on as a committee member, despite the clear conflict between her responsibility to provide independent animal welfare advice and her leadership role advocating for farming interests.

SAFE Campaign Manager Emily Hall says the issue goes far beyond standard conflict of interest declarations.

“The question isn't whether Sandra Faulkner has declared her interests correctly. The question is whether New Zealanders can have confidence in the independence of an animal welfare advisory committee when one of its members also holds an influential position within a powerful farming lobby group.”

NAWAC was established under the Animal Welfare Act to provide independent advice to the minister responsible for animal welfare. Federated Farmers, meanwhile, exists to advocate for the interests of farmers and actively campaigns for policy and regulatory outcomes that directly affect the commercial use of animals.

Hall points to a recent statement by then Federated Farmers president Wayne Langford celebrating the fact the lobby group had achieved all 12 of the key priorities it has put forward to the Government over the past three years, underscoring the influence Federated Farmers holds within the current Coalition Government.

“NAWAC cannot credibly claim to be an independent source of advice on animal welfare while allowing senior leadership within a major animal agricultural lobby group to remain on the committee,” says Hall.

SAFE says the conflict is particularly concerning because many of the animal welfare issues addressed by NAWAC directly affect sectors represented by Federated Farmers, including: intensive farming systems; mud farming or ‘winter grazing’; livestock transport; husbandry practices; animal welfare regulations and codes of welfare; and compliance and enforcement frameworks relating to farmed animals.

Following NAWAC's refusal to require Ms Faulkner to step down, SAFE has written to Associate Minister for Agriculture Andrew Hoggard and the Ministry for Primary Industries, calling for urgent action. The organisation is seeking Ms Faulkner's removal from the committee and the appointment of a replacement member with expertise in an area such as animal welfare science, animal behaviour, animal ethics, law, or public policy.

“This is about more than one committee member,” says Hall. “This situation exposes exactly what's wrong with New Zealand's animal welfare system – a fundamentally broken system that allows industry interests to exert significant influence over animal welfare decision making.”

Newsroom article: 16 June 2026
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/06/15/parties-of-the-right-battle-for-the-small-but-mighty-rural-vote

SAFE is Aotearoa’s leading animal rights organisation.

We're creating a future that ensures the rights of animals are respected. Our core work empowers society to make kinder choices for ourselves, animals and our planet.

Notes

Sandra Faulkner was elected Vice President of Federated Farmers in June 2026 after being on the national board for four years: ‘New vice president Sandra Faulkner farms with husband Rob at Wairakaia, near Gisborne, where they run a diverse operation including sheep, beef, cropping, citrus, farm forestry and contracting.’ Source: Federated Farmers.
https://fedfarm.org.nz/Web/Web/Media-Release/2026/June/Federated-Farmers-elects-new-national-president.aspx

NAWAC is a statutory committee established under the Animal Welfare Act 1999 to provide independent advice to the Minister responsible for animal welfare.

On 30 July 2026, NAWAC Chair Dr Matthew Stone confirmed by reply to SAFE that Ms Faulkner would remain on the committee.

SAFE has written to Minister Andrew Hoggard and MPI Deputy Director-General Karin Adair calling for Ms Faulkner to be required to step down from NAWAC and be replaced by a member free from comparable conflicts of interest.

“We put forward 12 priorities for the incoming government and we’re pleased to have got all 12 of those across the line over the past three years.” — Federated Farmers national president Wayne Langford

"Universities are not corporations that also happen to teach" says TEU

Source: Tertiary Education Union

A restructure of Massey University senior management (SLT), announced this week would weaken academic representation and ignores the real pressures facing staff, says the union for university, polytechnic and wānanga staff, the Tertiary Education Union (TEU).

The proposal would reduce academic roles at SLT and create an additional academic management layer while creating new roles including a “chief of staff” and “chief people and culture officer”. A proposed Deputy Vice-Chancellor Research and Enterprise role would not be required to have a doctoral qualification or an established academic research profile.

Associate Professor Sean Phelan, TEU Massey University Branch Academic Representative, says the proposal weakens academic voice at the VC's table.

“Universities are not corporations that also happen to teach. Their public value depends on independent scholarship, robust academic governance, and the protection of academic freedom. Any structural change must strengthen, not weaken, these foundations.”

Massey University union staff are also currently negotiating a new collective agreement and say the announcement, while the university refuses to meet staff claims for a real salary rise and secure work feels like a slap in the face.

TEU Massey University Co-Branch President, Te Awatea Ward, says that the staff who teach and support students every day of the week are the people who the university’s reputation relies on.

“Our workloads have increased enormously due to previous staffing cuts, and the cost of living is hurting us all. We just want our employer to see what we do and value us for it.

“It is appalling that the Vice-Chancellor appears more focussed on reshuffling senior management than investing in the staff that teach, research, and keep the University running. Professor Venter needs to value his staff and recognise the purpose of the University.”

Afghanistan: One in 10 children acutely malnourished as plummeting funding closes nearly 600 health facilities

Source: Save the Children

The number of acutely malnourished children in Afghanistan is increasing with nearly one in 10 children under five suffering from wasting at a time when plummeting funding is shuttering essential services and threatening progress, Save the Children said. [1]

Levels of wasting in children – or acute malnutrition – worsened in two thirds of provinces in the second quarter of 2026, compared to the same period last year, according to the UN, with current cases driven by increases in infectious diseases [2]. This is the peak season for malnutrition in Afghanistan, where the Taliban regained control five years ago.

Over the last four years, acute malnutrition in children under five has surged by 14%, affecting 3.7 million children in 2026 [3]. The same four-year period has seen humanitarian aid for Afghanistan fall by almost 70% from $3.27 billion in 2022 to $1 billion in 2025, with only $438 million secured more than halfway through 2026 – a 74% funding gap [4].

Nearly 600 health facilities have been shut or suspended due to funding cuts, impacting about four million people – around half of them children [5].

Save the Children has managed to keep 14 health clinics open following aid cuts with short-term funding, providing essential services in some of the most remote parts of the country, but the future of those clinics – and others – is now in jeopardy.

In a mountainous, hard to reach part of northern Afghanistan, Save the Children is the only healthcare provider for 10,000 people. The clinic sees over 100 patients every day, some of whom travel for two to three hours on foot to see doctors, nutrition nurses and midwives.

Transport options are limited and costly, and few can pay about US$60 to reach the city hospital. If the clinic closes, people would have to walk for seven hours for treatment.

Sama-, 35, lives with her seven children and her husband – who earns about US$3 a day – and relies on Save the Children’s free clinic when her children are sick. When her youngest child Mustafa-, nine months, became weak, she took him to the clinic where he was diagnosed with malnutrition and received treatment, while Sama- was advised on how to prepare nutritious food. Mustafa-’s condition has now stabilised and he is recovering well. Left untreated, acute malnutrition can be life-threatening, but with the right treatment, many children can fully recover.

Sama- said:

“As he is the youngest child in the family, when he is unwell, the whole family becomes worried and does everything possible to make sure he recovers and stays healthy, active, and happy.”

Marva-, a Save the Children nutrition nurse at the clinic, said:

“Before this clinic was established, people had to travel to the district clinic, which could take several hours by donkey or motorbike, or to the city hospital, which was often almost inaccessible.

“Many community members could not afford the cost of treatment, and during the winter, roads are frequently blocked by snow, rainfall, and flooding, making them extremely difficult to cross and preventing people from accessing essential healthcare services.”

About 700,000 people, including 140,000 children under five, have lost access to primary health services due to closure or scale-down of Save the Children supported health facilities and mobile health teams as a result of aid cuts since early 2025.

Afghanistan’s population has grown by up to 12% since September 2023 – adding to increasing numbers in need as humanitarian funding is decimated. More than six million people have returned from Iran and Pakistan as both countries enforce criteria that Afghans must meet to remain in those countries, or face deportation.

Ashish Damle, Country Director, Save the Children in Afghanistan said:

“The world cannot look away. Severe hunger, the staggering number of returnees and mass internal displacement due to disasters, recent conflict and four years of drought are stretching limited humanitarian resources to the brink.

“Poverty affects nutrition. Water scarcity contributes to illness. Illness interrupts education. Reduced household income increases child labour. Climate shocks, displacement and declining economic opportunities deepen these pressures, creating a cycle that is increasingly difficult for families to escape.

“We know what Afghanistan’s 22 million children need. We know what works to break the ever-increasing crises that upend their lives, but essential humanitarian programmes are under threat due to a devastating lack of funding and an absence of long-term development assistance from governments.

“The international community now faces a choice: continue responding only after families reach breaking point, or act early enough to protect children’s lives, rights and futures.”

Save the Children has been working in Afghanistan since 1976, including through periods of conflict, displacement and natural disasters. We currently run programmes in nine provinces and work with partners across an additional 11 provinces, delivering services in health, nutrition, education, child protection, shelter, water, sanitation, hygiene and livelihoods. Last year we reached more than 2 million people, nearly half children. Nearly 5,000 children were successfully treated for severe acute malnutrition and 1.4 million people received outpatient consultations in our clinics.

References:

– Denotes name changed to protect identity.

[1] Afghanistan Nutrition Surveillance Bulletin, 15th edition, quarter 2 2026:
https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-nutrition-surveillance-bulletin-15-edition-quarter-2-2026

[2] Afghanistan Nutrition Surveillance Bulletin, 15th edition, quarter 2 2026:
https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-nutrition-surveillance-bulletin-15-edition-quarter-2-2026

[3] 2022:
https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1156185/?iso3=AFG

2026:
https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1159817/?iso3=AFG

[4] Figures as of 4 August 2026:
https://fts.unocha.org/countries/1/summary/2026

[5] 445 health facilities suspended or closed as of December 2025:
https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-suspendedclosed-health-facilities-due-us-government-work-stop-ban-update-20-december-2025

150 closed or suspended since January 2026 according to the World Health Organization:
https://x.com/HananBalkhy/status/2074752651045294333

Australia – Commonwealth Bank’s full year results announcement

Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Commonwealth Bank Chief Executive Officer Matt Comyn has today updated the market on the bank’s FY26 results.

Wednesday, 12 August 2026

Commonwealth Bank has released its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026.

More on the full year results:

  • ASX announcement
  • Investor presentation
  • Insights into the results and how Commonwealth Bank is supporting customers
  • Media assets, including photography, video and audio grabs

Commonwealth Bank FY26 financial results

Commonwealth Bank of Australia | 230/2026

Property Market – Share of NZ homes selling for a profit falls to lowest level since 2012

Source: Cotality NZ

13 August 2026

The proportion of New Zealand properties resold for a gross profit has fallen to its lowest level in almost 14 years as the country’s prolonged housing downturn weighs on resale outcomes.

Cotality NZ’s Pain and Gain Report for the June quarter shows 86.9% of residential properties were resold for more than their original purchase price, down from 88.1% in Q1 and the lowest proportion since Q4 2012.

The share of loss-making resales increased from 11.9% to 13.1%, continuing a gradual deterioration from the market peak, when more than 99% of properties resold for a gain.

Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the gradual deterioration in resale performance reflected the prolonged property market downturn, with national values around 18% below their peak.

“Property values peaked in early 2022 and have been through more than four years of falls and stagnation since,” Mr Davidson said.

“While the share of profitable resales has fallen from more than 99% at the peak to 86.9% today, it’s been a gradual adjustment rather than the sharp deterioration we saw during the global financial crisis.”

Mr Davidson said during the GFC, the proportion of profitable resales fell from around 98% in mid-2007 to about 80% within two years.

“We’re not seeing the same widespread repayment problems or mortgagee sales in the current cycle, partly reflecting stronger serviceability testing within the banks. The rise in unemployment has come from more labour supply rather than mass job losses too,” he said.

The national median gain was $280,000 in Q2, down from $292,000 in Q1 and the late-2021 peak of $440,000. The median loss increased from $55,000 to $60,000.

Profitable sellers hold for record 10.4 years

Properties resold for a gain in Q2 had been owned for a median of 10.4 years, a new record for a series dating back to the mid-1990s and up from 10 years in Q1.

The record is part of a longer-term trend towards extended property ownership, with the median hold period for profitable resales increasing from cyclical peaks of 6.5 years in 2001 to another of 8.5 years in 2015 and now 10.4 years in 2026.

“Some owners may be waiting longer for values to recover before selling, while elevated listings and subdued sales activity mean it can simply take longer to achieve a sale,” Mr Davidson said.

“Economic and employment uncertainty may also be encouraging some people to stay where they are, while transaction costs and lending restraints can make moving less attractive.”

By comparison, properties resold for a loss had been owned for a median of 4.3 years, up slightly from 4.2 years in Q1 and 3.9 years in Q4 2025.

Mr Davison said that places the typical purchase of a loss-making property around late 2021 or early 2022, when property values were near their peak and mortgage rates were on the rise.

Apartment resale losses reach highest level since 2010

Apartments recorded a further deterioration in resale performance in Q2, with 45.2% selling for less than their previous purchase price, up from 39.4% in Q1.

It was the highest proportion of loss-making apartment resales since Q3 2010, when the figure reached 48.2%.

Standalone houses were considerably more resilient, with 12.2% sold for a loss in Q2, or 87.8% resold for a gross profit.

“Apartment values have generally recorded weaker capital growth over time and have fallen by around 6% over the past year, compared with about 2% for townhouses and broadly flat values for standalone dwellings,” Mr Davidson said.

“That leaves apartments more exposed to a loss when values are falling, particularly for owners who have bought and sold within a relatively short period. There’s no real evidence of fire-sales of apartments, but it’s also true that sellers are battling a bit in this current environment.”

More than one in five Auckland resales make a loss

Auckland and Wellington recorded the weakest resale performance among the main centres, reflecting subdued property market conditions in both cities.

In Auckland, 20.9% of properties were resold for a loss in Q2, while Wellington recorded a loss on 18.4% of resales. Hamilton followed at 13.4%, Tauranga at 10.7%, Dunedin at 8.0% and Christchurch at 5.3%.

Median losses were highest in Auckland and Wellington at $85,000, compared with $60,000 nationally.

However, longer-term owners in the two cities continued to record some of the country's largest gains, with a median profit of $368,000 in Auckland and $311,750 in Wellington.

Mr Davidson said the contrast highlighted the importance of when a property was purchased and how long it had been owned.

“Auckland and Wellington experienced significant value growth before the recent downturn, so owners who bought many years ago can still be sitting on substantial gains,” he said.

“Recent buyers have had a very different experience, particularly those who purchased near the peak and have needed to sell again within the last four or five years.”

Resale conditions likely to stay subdued

Across all Q2 resales, gross gains totalled $3.83 billion compared with $159 million in gross losses.

Mr Davidson said the difference showed that despite the rising frequency of losses, longer-term property ownership was still generating significant equity for many sellers.

“Even with the gain rate at its lowest since 2012, more than eight in every 10 resellers are still selling above their original purchase price,” he said.

“That being said, for most owner occupiers, those gains won’t necessarily translate into a cash windfall because the equity will generally be recycled into their next property purchase.

“Looking ahead, economic uncertainty remains high, listings are elevated and buyers generally have plenty of choice. Until those conditions change materially, it’s difficult to see resale performance improving significantly in the near term.”

Notes:

The Pain and Gain Report analyses homes resold during the quarter, comparing the most recent sale price to the previous sale price to determine whether the result was a gross profit (gain) or gross loss (pain).

Economy – RBNZ outlines priorities for a resilient and enabling financial system

Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua

13 August 2026

Assistant Governor Financial Stability Angus McGregor highlighted the importance of financial stability and outlined priorities shaping the Reserve Bank's prudential regulation approach in remarks delivered today at the Financial Services Council Conference.

Financial stability creates a foundation for New Zealand's economic success, Mr McGregor said.

“Financial stability is about ensuring financial institutions can keep supporting households, businesses and the wider economy through both normal times and periods of stress. When the system is stable, New Zealanders can save, borrow, invest, insure against risk, and make long-term decisions with confidence,” he said.

When it comes to the Reserve Bank's prudential regulation approach, Mr McGregor underscored the importance of building and maintaining a fit-for-purpose regulatory regime, and taking a forward-looking and system-wide approach to enabling financial stability.

“A fit-for-purpose regime means regulation and supervision that are proportionate, risk-based, evidence-informed and future-proofed. It also means being disciplined about minimising unnecessary burden on firms and on the system, while remaining clear about the outcomes we need to achieve for financial stability,” he explained.

Mr McGregor noted that the Reserve Bank is continuing to strengthen its forward-looking and system-wide approach to ensure regulation remains relevant in a changing world.

He cited the implementation of the Deposit Takers Act and the review of the Insurance (Prudential Supervision) Act as examples. These highlight the Reserve Bank's commitment to building more risk-based and future-focused regulatory frameworks that enable a resilient financial sector for New Zealanders.

Mr McGregor also acknowledged the importance of constructive relationships while maintaining the Reserve Bank's role as a credible and effective supervisor.

“Strong relationships help us do that job better. They allow issues to be raised earlier, risks to be better understood and openly discussed, and supervisory action, where needed, to be better targeted and more effective.”

“Ultimately, our shared goal is a financial system that is resilient, competitive, innovative, and trusted by New Zealanders. Working together is critical to achieving that goal,” he concluded.

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Financial Services Council Conference – Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua

Heritage – Historic pulpit finds new home at Trentham Military Chapel

Source: NZRA

A remarkable piece of Wellington's military and family history has been rescued from obscurity and will be formally presented to the Trentham Military Chapel on Chunuk Bair Day, ensuring the legacy of one of the city's most distinguished wartime families is preserved for future generations.

The historic pulpit, originally from St John's Church, Johnsonville, was recently discovered for sale online and secured by the New Zealand Remembrance Army (NZRA) before it could be lost to private ownership or disposal.

The pulpit has a strong connection to the Willis family, one of Wellington's best-known pioneering families, after whom Willis Street is named. It is particularly linked to Sergeant Cecil Nicholson Willis, a Wellington soldier who gave his life during the First World War.

The pulpit will now be donated by the NZRA to the chapel at Trentham Camp, where it will continue to serve as a place of remembrance for generations of New Zealand service personnel.

“This is a wonderful example of local history, military history, and family history coming together,” says Simon Strombom, Managing Director of the NZRA.

“When we discovered the pulpit was being sold online, we knew it was something that deserved to be preserved and find it a ‘forever home’. It is directly connected to a Wellington family that gave so much in service to New Zealand.”

A soldier who never came home

23/350 Sergeant Cecil Nicholson Willis was born in Wellington to Amelia Anne and Alexander James Willis and grew up at 69 Weld Street, Wadestown.

Before the outbreak of war, he worked as a marine engineer with the Union Steam Ship Company, building a promising career before answering his country's call to serve.

Sergeant Willis enlisted with the 1st Battalion, New Zealand Rifle Brigade and saw active service in the Senussi Campaign in North Africa before being deployed to the battlefields of France and Belgium.

On 7 December 1917, at 26 years old, he died of multiple gunshot wounds received in action on the Western Front.

Today he lies buried at Lijssenthoek Military Cemetery in Poperinge, Belgium, alongside thousands of other Commonwealth servicemen who never returned to New Zealand.

“Like so many young New Zealanders of his generation, Cecil Willis left everything behind to serve,” Strombom said.

“He never came home, but his story remains an important part of Wellington's history and New Zealand's military heritage.”

The Willis family’s service

The Willis family's contribution to New Zealand does not end with Cecil.

His sister, 22/273 Ida Grace Willis, became one of New Zealand's most celebrated military nurses.

In 1914, she was among the first six New Zealand nurses to deploy with the force that occupied German Samoa. She later served aboard the hospital ship Maheno, caring for Gallipoli casualties in Egypt before continuing service throughout England and France during the First World War.

Following the war, Ida Willis helped shape military nursing in New Zealand, eventually becoming Matron-in-Chief of the New Zealand Army Nursing Service.

When the Second World War began, she was instrumental in organising and preparing New Zealand's military nursing services for another generation of conflict.

Her distinguished career earned numerous honours, including the Associate of the Royal Red Cross (1918), King George V Silver Jubilee Medal (1935) and Officer of the Order of the British Empire, Military Division (1944)

She is widely recognised as the first woman in New Zealand to be appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE).

“Few families contributed so much to New Zealand's war efforts,” Strombom said.

“One sibling made the ultimate sacrifice on the battlefields of Europe, while the other dedicated her life to caring for New Zealand's wounded soldiers across two world wars.”

Preserving history for future generations

The presentation of the pulpit to Trentham Military Chapel will take place on Chunuk Bair Day – 8 August, commemorating one of New Zealand's most significant battles of the Gallipoli campaign.

Organisers say the date is especially fitting, bringing together remembrance, military service and the preservation of an important historic artefact.

“Had it not been recognised and rescued, this important piece of our heritage could easily have disappeared. Instead, it will continue to inspire remembrance and reflection in a place dedicated to service.”

As the New Zealand Remembrance Army continues its mission to protect New Zealand's military heritage, the rescue of the Willis pulpit serves as another example of history saved from being forgotten.