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Tax Justice Aotearoa has welcomed the release of Inland Revenue's draft Long Term Insight Briefing, which looks at the possible future directions for New Zealand's tax system.

The discussion document suggests a stable core structure of main bases that “comprehensively taxes the factors that are sought to be taxed”, coupled with the ability to “change rates on main bases to change the level of revenue.”

“We welcome the release of the draft LTIB as a useful contribution to the debate about what kind of tax system we want for the future,” says Glenn Barclay, Chair of Tax Justice Aotearoa.

“Tax has become a hot topic and this document demonstrates some of the challenges we face.”

“We look forward to hearing more from the IR officials and giving the public the opportunity to question their thinking at our upcoming briefing event*,” says Glenn Barclay. “This is part of the consultation process so everyone who would like to make a submission on the LTIB should come along.”

The LTIB notes the fiscal challenge we face as a country as expenditure increases, largely as a result of an ageing population.  

“Tax Justice Aotearoa agrees with this observation but an ageing population is just one of the many problems we have stored up for ourselves by failing to invest in both social and physical infrastructure – the challenges of poverty and inequality, as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation also come to mind”, says Glenn Barclay.

The LTIB also demonstrates that New Zealand is an outlier in the extent to which it relies on tax revenue from labour income and GST and that we under tax capital income.

“These are the taxes that impact most on working people and the poor,” says Glenn Barclay.

“We need to address this imbalance by ensuring those who can afford to pay more are required to do so, and also that the regressive nature of GST can be addressed. The permanent GST-offset credit suggested by the LTIB, is a proposal worth considering.”
 
“There are limitations to the document, for example it does not address the interface between the tax system and the Working For Families tax credit, which is a fraught issue for those who are dependent upon WFF, but we look forward to the debate that the document will provoke,” says Glenn Barclay.

* Tax Justice Aotearoa will be hosting speakers from Inland Revenue at one of its 'Tax on Tuesdays' events on Tuesday 1 July at 12.30pm* – members of the public are welcome to attend.

It will be a hybrid event with an in person session at Rutherford House in Wellington, which will be live-streamed.

Where: Rutherford House Lecture Theatre 2 (RHLT2), 33 Bunny Street, Wellington.

When: 12.30-1.30 pm Tuesday, 1 July 2025

To register in person or Zoom: https://www.tjanz.org/ir-insights-briefing

• Amnesty visits more than 50 scamming compounds in 18-month long research
• Testimony from survivors details human trafficking, slavery and forced labour affecting thousands
• Findings point towards state complicity in abuses carried out by Chinese criminal gangs.

The Cambodian government is deliberately ignoring a litany of human rights abuses including slavery, human trafficking, child labour and torture being carried out by criminal gangs on a vast scale in more than 50 scamming compounds located across the country, Amnesty International said in a new report published today: (ref. https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/asa23/9447/2025/en/ )

Survivors interviewed for the report, “I Was Someone Else's Property”, believed they were applying for genuine jobs but were instead trafficked to Cambodia, where they were held in prison-like compounds and forced to conduct online scams in a billion-dollar shadow economy defrauding people around the world.

“Deceived, trafficked and enslaved, the survivors of these scamming compounds describe being trapped in a living nightmare – enlisted in criminal enterprises that are operating with the apparent consent of the Cambodian government,” Amnesty International’s Secretary General Agnes Callamard said.

“Jobseekers from Asia and beyond are lured by the promise of well-paid work into hellish labour camps run by well-organized gangs, where they are forced to scam under the very real threat of violence.

“Amnesty’s research reveals the horrifying magnitude of a crisis the Cambodian authorities are not doing enough to stop. Their failures have emboldened a criminal network whose tentacles extend internationally, with millions of people impacted by the scams.”

Amnesty's findings suggest there has been coordination and possibly collusion between Chinese compound bosses and the Cambodian police, who have failed to shut down compounds despite the slew of human rights abuses taking place inside.

‘High salary and swimming pool’

In the most comprehensive documentation yet of the issue, Amnesty’s 240-page report identified at least 53 scamming compounds in Cambodia and interviewed 58 survivors of eight different nationalities, including nine children. Amnesty also reviewed the records of 336 other victims of Cambodian compounds. Those interviewed had either escaped from compounds, been rescued or had a ransom paid by their families.

The interviewees’ testimony gives a detailed insight into a sprawling, violent criminal operation that is taking place often with the full knowledge of the Cambodian authorities, whose woefully ineffective – and at times corrupt – response to the scamming crisis demonstrates its acquiescence and points towards state complicity in the human rights abuses taking place.

One survivor, *Lisa, who was 18 and looking for work during a break from school in Thailand when she was trafficked, said: “[The recruiters] said I would work in administration… they sent pictures of a hotel with a swimming pool… the salary was high.”

Instead, Lisa was taken across a river at night into Cambodia, where she spent 11 months held against her will by armed security guards and forced to work on scams. When she tried to escape, she was severely beaten.

“There were four men… three of them held me down while the boss hit me on the soles of my feet with a metal pole… They told me that if I don’t stop screaming, they’re going to keep hitting [me] until I stop,” she said.

‘They kept beating [them] until their body was purple’

As part of its 18-month long research, Amnesty International visited all but one of the 53 scamming compounds located in 16 towns and cities across Cambodia, as well as 45 similar sites also strongly suspected to be scamming compounds. Many of the buildings were formerly casinos and hotels repurposed by criminal gangs – mostly from China – after Cambodia banned online gambling in 2019.

Compounds appeared designed to keep people inside, with features such as surveillance cameras, barbed wire around perimeter walls and large numbers of security personnel, often carrying electric shock batons and in some cases firearms. Survivors reported that “escape was impossible”.

Most victims had been lured to Cambodia by deceptive job advertisements posted on social media sites such as Facebook and Instagram. After being trafficked, survivors said they were forced to contact people using social media platforms and begin conversations aimed at defrauding them. These included fake romances or investment opportunities, selling products that would never be delivered, or building trust with victims before financially exploiting them – known as “pig-butchering”.

All but one of the survivors interviewed were victims of human trafficking, while everyone had been subjected to forced labour under the threat of violence. In 32 cases, Amnesty International concluded the survivors were victims of slavery as defined under international law, with compound managers exerting a level of control over them that amounted to de facto ownership. Survivors also reported being sold into compounds or witnessing the sale of other people. Many others were told they owed a debt to the compound which they had to work to repay.

Forty of the 58 survivors interviewed had suffered torture or other ill-treatment – almost always carried out by compound managers. Some compounds had specific rooms – often known as “dark rooms” – which were designated places for torture of people who did not or could not work or meet work targets, or who contacted the authorities.

Survivors frequently mentioned deaths inside the compounds or nearby; one survivor described hearing a body hitting the roof of a building. Amnesty International also confirmed the death of a Chinese child inside a compound.

Survivor *Siti described seeing a Vietnamese person beaten by compound bosses for around 25 minutes. He said: “They just keep beating [the Vietnamese person] until their body was…purple…then [using] the electric baton. Beat the Vietnamese until he can’t scream, can’t get up…then the boss tell me that they wait until another compound want to buy him.”

Of the nine children interviewed, five were subjected to torture or other ill-treatment. *Sawat, a 17-year-old Thai boy, was beaten by several managers before being told he would be stripped and forced to jump off the building.

Cambodian government’s glaring failures

Amnesty International’s report found that the Cambodian government has failed to adequately investigate widespread human rights abuses at scamming compounds despite being repeatedly made aware of them.

“The Cambodian authorities know what is going on inside scamming compounds, yet they allow it to continue. Our findings reveal a pattern of state failures that have allowed criminality to flourish and raises questions about the government’s motivations,” Amnesty International’s Regional Research Director Montse Ferrer said.

The government has claimed to be addressing the scamming crisis through its National Committee to Combat Human Trafficking (NCCT) and a number of ministerial task forces, which have overseen a series of police “rescues” of victims from compounds. However, more than two thirds of the scamming compounds identified in the report continued to operate even after police raids and “rescues”. At one compound in Botum Sakor, human trafficking has been widely reported by media and police have intervened multiple times to rescue victims, yet the site remains open.

Police failings stem from their collaboration or coordination with compound bosses. For example, in many of the “rescues”, instead of entering the compounds and investigating, police would simply meet a manager or security guard at the gate, where they would be handed the individual(s) who had called in for help. Business then continued as usual.

In other instances, several survivors said they were punished with beatings after their secretive efforts to contact police for help were somehow uncovered by bosses. One Vietnamese survivor told Amnesty International that police “work for the compound and will report requests for help back to the compound bosses”.

Those “rescued” from compounds were often subsequently detained in immigration detention centres in poor conditions for months at a time – the Cambodian authorities having failed to recognize them as victims of human trafficking and provide them with the support required under international law.

Meanwhile, the authorities have targeted others speaking out about scamming compounds. Several human rights defenders and journalists working on the issue have been arrested, while the news outlet Voice of Democracy was closed in 2023 in apparent retaliation for its reporting on the scamming crisis.

Amnesty International sent its findings to the NCCT, which responded by sharing vague data on interventions at compounds, none of which clarified whether the state has identified, investigated or prosecuted individuals for human rights abuses other than deprivation of liberty. It also did not respond to Amnesty International’s list of scamming compounds or suspicious locations.

“The Cambodian government could put a stop to these abuses, but it has chosen not to. The police interventions documented appear to be merely ‘for show’,” Montse Ferrer said.

“Cambodia’s authorities must ensure no more jobseekers are trafficked into the country to face torture, slavery or any other human rights abuse. They must urgently investigate and shut down all scamming compounds and properly identify, assist and protect victims. Slavery thrives when governments look away.”

Survivors interviewed for Amnesty International’s report were from China, Thailand, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Indonesia, Taiwan and Ethiopia, but Amnesty International also had access to records of hundreds of others who are nationals of India, Kenya, Nepal and the Philippines among many more.

Background

Under international human rights law, the Cambodian state has a duty to ensure that no one is held in slavery or servitude or required to perform forced labour. It is obligated to protect children from economic exploitation and must prevent, prohibit, investigate and prosecute acts of torture. The Cambodian government must also effectively investigate, prosecute and adjudicate trafficking whether committed by governmental or non-state actors; it must identify trafficking victims and provide remedy; and it must implement measures to ensure that “rescue” operations of trafficked persons do not further harm their rights and dignity.

*All survivors using pseudonyms for security reasons

In response to the climate crisis, a new way to measure how well people and nature are living together has been announced in Nature.

A hopeful new way to think about human progress has been announced today in the world’s leading scientific journal Nature.

Rather than focusing on what we’re doing wrong, the new global framework offers a way to measure how well people and nature are thriving together.

Led by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and created by a group of international experts in various disciplines, the Nature Relationship Index (NRI) will track countries’ progress in three key areas: a thriving and accessible natural world, responsible and respectful use of nature, and protection from pollution and harm.

It builds on the success of the Human Development Index (HDI), which measures average achievements in a country in three broad categories: a long and healthy life, access to knowledge, and a decent standard of living.

The University of Auckland’s Peter Kraus Professor of Philosophy Krushil Watene (Te Hikutu, Ngāti Manu, Ngāti Whātua o Ōrākei, Tonga) is one of the researchers who contributed to the novel framework, bringing both a philosophical and Indigenous perspective.

“The NRI takes our relationships with nature as foundational to the way we should think about well-being, development, and justice,” she says.

“Such a philosophical shift requires our commitment to the realisation of social and environmental justice, and to fostering new concepts, practices, and institutions – both locally and globally.”

Just as the HDI transformed global development thinking, Watene says researchers hope the NRI will redefine progress to include healthy human-nature relationships, not just economic growth.

The Nature Relationship Index is planned to be prominently featured in the 2026 Human Development Report, with annual updates planned for all countries thereafter.

Its authors, who include leading marine ecologists, psychologists, economists, environmental scientists and policy specialists, believe it represents a hopeful and inclusive approach to environmental stewardship, rooted in the belief that when people work together, humanity and nature can thrive.

“Ultimately,” says Watene, “the NRI values and relies on the diversity in our knowledges and knowledge-making, pluralism in our diverse and distributed social practices, and solidarity, grounded in the rich and interdependent networks of stewardship that exist – and that could yet emerge – across all corners of the globe.”

An aspirational approach to planetary futures by Erle C. Ellis, Yadvinder Malhi, Hannah Ritchie, Jasper Montana, Sandra Diaz, David Obura, Susan Clayton, Melissa Leach, Laura Pereira, Emma Marris, Michael Muthukrishna, Bojie Fu, Peter Frankopan, Molly K. Grace, Krushil Watene, Nicholas Depsky, Josefin Pasanen and Pedro Conceição is published in Nature (June 2025).

Portfolio Update – The value of the NZ Super Fund has mirrored the performance of global risk assets over the past couple of months, dropping to $74 billion following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on 2 April and subsequently recovering to pass $83 billion.

Periods of volatility are part and parcel of running a growth-focused portfolio, which we continue to believe is the investment strategy best suited to our mandate and to our purpose, Sustainable Investment Delivering Strong Returns to All New Zealanders.

As a long-term investor, we are able to ride out, and even take advantage of, short-term market volatility. For example, one of our most successful active strategies over the past few years is Strategic Tilting. This strategy is based on our belief that investments tend to return to fair value over time and that, given our long-term investment horizon, we can improve our risk-adjusted returns by reducing our exposure to assets we believe are over-priced assets in favour of holding assets we believe offer value.

As we have seen during the GFC and at the outset of the Covid pandemic, this strategy can generate losses over the short to medium term: our operational independence and our clearly defined governance model are essential to the success of this strategy.

Market Conditions

Financial markets remain closely attuned to developments in U.S. trade policy and ongoing tariff negotiations under the Trump Administration. These policy uncertainties, combined with concerns over the recently released federal budget – which is projected to significantly widen the U.S. fiscal deficit – have heightened investor caution.

As a result, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, driven in part by increased investor demand for alternative sovereign debt instruments. Notably, Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have seen a pickup in yields, offering a relatively attractive option for investors seeking safety and yield diversification. This shift in sentiment has also contributed to a modest depreciation of the U.S. dollar against major currencies.

Global economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in Q1, but recent indicators suggest a softening in momentum across several economies. Inflation remains broadly in line with central bank targets, helped by subdued energy prices. In response to the cooling outlook, central banks in New Zealand, Australia, and the Eurozone have eased monetary policy, while the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.

Adding to global uncertainty, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven a sharp increase in commodity prices, particularly in oil markets. These developments are likely to be a key source of market volatility in the near term.

The NZ Super Fund in the Budget

The amount of money the government is required to contribute to the Super Fund is determined by a formula set out in Section 43 of our Act (the New Zealand Superannuation and Retirement Income Act 2001).

It is a complicated-looking calculation, but the most important inputs are the expected nominal GDP and net cost of superannuation over the following 40 years and the size of the Super Fund.

If nominal GDP or the size of the Super Fund is higher than expected (or if the net cost of superannuation is lower), the Government is required to contribute a lower amount.

These forecasts are updated by Treasury every six months at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) and the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU).

At the last HYEFU, Treasury forecast that the government would be able to make its first withdrawal from the Super Fund in 2031 ($96 million).

Last month’s updated numbers, published alongside Finance Minister Nicola Willis’s 2025 Budget, forecast that the first withdrawal would come in 2028 ($32 million). 2036 remains the year where withdrawals are forecast to pass $1 billion for the first time.

Reductions in forecast government contribution have been a trend for the past few years, driven by higher-than-expected returns from the Super Fund and lower-than-previously-expected future net superannuation costs.    

The Elevate Fund

The Budget also contained the news that the Government would divert this year’s capital contribution of $61 million to the Elevate Fund, along with a further $39 million from the government's capital allowance.

This $100 million commitment provides some welcome certainty for NZGCP, whom the Guardians appointed to manage Elevate in line with the legislation that established the fund in 2019 (the Venture Capital Fund Act), and matches the approach taken by the previous government when it first set up Elevate.

We look forward to continuing to work with NZGCP to maintain Elevate’s contribution to increasing the venture capital available to New Zealand entities and developing New Zealand’s venture capital markets to function more effectively. 

Minister of Finance’s Letter of Expectations

We have now published our response to the Letter of Expectations 2025/26 that we received earlier this year from Finance Minister Nicola Willis.

Click here to read the Minister’s letter, and here to read our response. 

Guardians staffer elected to ILPA board

Del Hart, our Head of External Investments and Partnerships, was recently elected to the Board of the Institutional Limited Partners Association. With 618 institutional members drawn from 50 countries, the ILPA is an important industry advocate and thought leader.

Private markets are growing and changing rapidly. Del’s perspective will be of great value as we continue to refine our thinking about investing in this asset class.

Industry recognises Leadership Team member's career and contribution

Paula Steed, recently appointed as Guardians GM Technology (and previously GM Strategy and Shared Services), has been inducted as a Fellow of the Chartered Accountants Association of Australia and New Zealand (CAANZ). Fellowships are given for outstanding career achievements or contributions to the profession, as decided by CAANZ members.  

NZ Super Fund Scholarship winner

Avondale College alumna Chana Malungahu is the latest recipient of the NZ Super Fund AUT Business Scholarship – Pacific. Chana, who enrolled at AUT in the second semester last year, is currently studying business strategy, international business management, and entrepreneurship and innovation, and working towards a Bachelor of Business degree. 

AUT Business School announced the award of this scholarship via their LinkedIn page.

Annual Report voted best in Australasia

For the fourth time in five years the Guardians' annual report has been named Report of the Year at this year's ARA awards. Judges described the report as “designed to engage readers and effectively communicate the organisation’s messages … customer centric and easy to understand.”

Read our Annual Report for FY24 here.

The Judges’ comments and a full list of award winners can be found on the ARA website.

In the news

Guardians Board member (and former Senior Investment Strategist at the NZ Super Fund) Sue Brake and CalPERS Chief Investment Officer (and former Chief Investment Officer at the NZ Super Fund) Stephen Gilmore talk about the Total Portfolio Approach to investing with Thinking Ahead Institute Associate Director Isabella Martin – the latest in Isabella’s Investing for the Future series of podcasts.

The Guardians is gearing up to combine a multitude of investment data models across the organisation into a central model-of-models, which should lead to better investment decisions and cost savings. Maaike van Tol, our Director of Portfolio Design, recently sat down with the Investment Innovation Institute's Director of Content, Wouter Klijn, to talk about how a comprehensive data analytics function can lead to more meaningful conversations, better investment decisions, and lower costs. Read Wouter’s report here.   

Sustainable Investment Analyst Laumanu Mafi recently featured on RadioNZ's Pacific Waves programme, where she and host Susana Suisuiki discussed some of the difficulties Pacific women face in accessing the retirement benefits they need. An economist by training, Laumanu spent three years on the investment team at Tonga’s Retirement Fund Board before joining the Guardians two years ago. Go to RNZ Pacific to listen to their conversation.

Congratulations to former Guardians Board member Mark Tume, winner of the Invest New Zealand – Te Tohu Kahukura Māori Leadership in Finance Award at the recent INFINZ awards. A full list of award winners can be found here.

Covering period of Thursday 26th – Sunday 29th June – Severe weather will affect much of the country in the coming days.

• Orange Heavy Rain Warnings have been issued for parts of Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, the Buller District and Taranaki Maunga ending by Friday evening. 
• Orange Strong Winds Warnings are in place for the Marlborough sounds and Wellington today (Thursday). 
• Heavy Rain Watches also cover the Bay of Plenty, Taupō, Taihape, northern Whanganui, Dunedin and North Otago from Friday afternoon. 
• A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Northland for Friday morning for possible downpours. 
• A Heavy Snow Watch is in place for Central Otago and Canterbury High Country south of the Rangitata River overnight from Friday into Saturday.  

Today (Thursday) severe weather affects northern parts of the South Island.

• Rainfall rates as high as 25mm/h have been recorded in the Tasman District. The heavy rain is expected to persist into Friday. 
• Wind gusts more than 120km/h have been recorded in Wellington. 
• Heavy rain affected the west coast of the South Island earlier this morning, meanwhile Christchurch woke to a balmy 17.4°C due to the foehn effect, which also melted the Alexandra ice rink. 

MetService Meteorologist Michael Pawley says, “The Nelson and Tasman Region has had significant rain recently, and we’re expecting a lot more to fall by Friday evening.” Before the end of Friday, northern parts of the South Island will likely see more than a month’s worth of rain. Expect the rivers to be running high and surface flooding present.

On Friday the heavy rain will affect most of the North Island. Before dawn, squally thunderstorms are expected to arrive in Northland. These bring the risk of heavy downpours and strong wind gusts. As the front moves across the island, the risk of thunderstorms spreads to other regions of the North Island and top of the South.  

Overnight into Saturday the winds will shift southerly, directing heavy rain at Dunedin and Otago with the possibility of heavy snow above 600 meters inland. This could affect alpine roads.

Michael adds “Sunday looks like the better day to travel if you’re going away for the school holidays because the severe weather is expected to ease. If you’re going skiing, I’d recommend staying cozy and dry while the fresh snow falls.”