Source: PSA
- “cancelling some training activities and major exercises”
- “reducing flying hours, sea days and other training”
- “pausing property maintenance”
Covering period of Monday 21st – Thursday 24th July – Clear skies and frosty mornings sticking around this week
• Frosty mornings through the week
• Settled weather for most
• Showery first half of the week for eastern North Island
• Fog may hang around in inland South Island valleys through the week
Settled weather is set to persist through the week over New Zealand as a high-pressure system sits over the country. After wetter conditions in some areas over the past few weeks, some may welcome the return of calmer, drier weather.
MetService meteorologist Oscar Shiviti says, “this week is a great time to enjoy outdoor activities, especially while some are still busy at school, as clear skies and light winds are expected for most regions”.
This morning (Monday) was especially chilly, “with Christchurch recording its coldest July temperature so far at -3.8°C, and Taumarunui reaching its lowest temperature of the year at -3.6°C” added Shiviti. These frosty starts are expected to continue throughout the week, especially in the Mackenzie District as well as in Otago, which may experience the coldest mornings, along with possible fog. Twizel drops to -5°C on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, while inland parts of Dunedin wake up to a frosty -3°C.
While the coldest temperatures will be found in the South Island, “frosty conditions are expected widely across the North Island too, even parts of the Auckland region could wake up to a touch of frost on Tuesday morning” Shiviti added.
Although most of the country will stay dry, there are still a few areas that could see some wet weather. The east of the North Island, such as Tairāwhiti Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, sees cloudier and showery conditions through to Wednesday night due to southeasterly winds bringing moisture in from the ocean.
Later in the week, a front is expected to approach from the Tasman Sea, meaning there is a chance of a shower or two in the southwest of the South Island for the second half of Thursday. Showers and rain should become more pronounced in Fiordland by Friday as the front arrives.
For more on the weather keep an eye on the MetService website (www.metservice.com).
This is the first test for an August cash rate cut. It's widely expected that headline will push towards the top end of the RBNZ's target band. But more important to policy is underlying inflation, which continues to ease. Spare capacity within the Kiwi economy is keeping downward pressure on domestically generated inflation.
Downside risks to medium-term inflation remain. Whether that's a consequence of a slowdown in global economic growth, or a diversion of trade marked at a discount. There is still a case for more accommodative interest rate settings.
Kiwi inflation accelerated over the June quarter. Annual headline rose to 2.7% from 2.5%. It's a move in the wrong direction. But context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. And most importantly, the underlying trend in consumer prices is weak. Excluding the volatile movements in food and fuel, annual core inflation lifted to 2.7% from 2.6%. A move that was better than many had feared, and one that will improve into next year. For now, there's little risk this bout of high inflation will persist. Especially given that there's still significant spare capacity in the Kiwi economy.
Here's a data dump. Non-tradables, domestically generated inflation, rose 0.7%qoq and 3.7% on the year. Excluding housing related stuff, it's up 3.5%. And there's good news for housing related stuff. Building costs fell 0.1%qoq (the lowest we've seen since 2021) and 0.8% over the year. That's the weakness we've seen since 2009. Falling materials costs, like steel, match the anecdotes were hearing from developers. And wages within the industry have softened also. There's less work. Renters face weaker rent rises as well. More good news. Rents rose 0.8%qoq and 3.2% over the year… down from 3.7% last quarter. So whilst we're being hit with hefty food, electricity, insurance, and council rates… at least our rents aren't rising as much… or if you own a property, interest rates are less painful (but at these levels, they still hurt, not help).
Mary Jo Vergara
Senior Economist
Source: NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi
Data released by Statistics New Zealand today shows that the cost-of-living crisis is getting worse as inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose annually to 2.7%, said NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi Economist Craig Renney.
“This marks the third straight quarter in which annual inflation has increased, up from 2.2% in December 2024. A key reason why inflation didn’t break out of the 1-3% target barrier is that petrol pricing was down. Excluding petrol, annual inflation was 3.2%,” said Renney.
“The data shows that prices rose most in areas that are particularly hard to manage for middle- and low-income groups. Household energy rose 9.1%, with gas prices rising 15.4%. Dairy and eggs rose 9.9%. Dwelling and contents insurance rose 10%. Rates are up 12.2%.
“This increase is likely to put further pressure on households, particularly those on the minimum wage – who received a pay rise of just 1.5% in April. When last measured, 48% of workers got a pay rise less than 2%, while 59% got a pay rise less of than 3%. It is these workers who are paying the price of the cost-of-living crisis.
“The Government has made a mess of the economy. Rents are still rising faster than general inflation, despite billions in tax breaks. Food pricing is rising at 4.2% despite the governments claims to be focused on supermarket competition. Workers are paying the price for the Government’s inaction.
“The economy is stumbling and is likely heading back to negative growth, and the Government has consistently cut investment. Trade tariffs and uncertainty are likely to add further concerns to growth. The cost of tertiary education rose significantly due to the removal of first year free – making it harder to access skills training during rising unemployment,” said Renney.
The analysis, which compared the asking and selling prices of more than 53,000 residential homes listed and sold on realestate.co.nz between 1 January 2024 and 31 May 2025, showed that by the time a home sold, people were getting more than their final asking price.
During this period, New Zealand homeowners asked for an average of $894,915 for their properties but achieved an average selling price of $898,845, putting an extra $3,930 in their pockets.
The two price types were compared in the month that the property was officially sold, using sales data provided by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).
Vanessa Williams, spokesperson for realestate.co.nz, says sellers are meeting the market and exceeding their own expectations.
“The last 18 months have been tough for sellers, but we are seeing that by the time their home sells, vendors are getting realistic with their price expectations. This seems to be having a surprisingly positive outcome, as they are ending up with slightly more than they bargained for.”
Whether vendors were up or down with their pricing expectations varied greatly around the country. Eight of realestate.co.nz’s 19 regions recorded a higher average selling price than asking price, while the remaining 11 asked, on average, for more than the average selling price.
Wellington sellers take the win
Sellers in Wellington had the biggest positive variance between asking and selling prices, with vendors getting, on average, $17,185 more for their homes than what they asked for.
The average asking price over this period in the region was $901,484, while the average selling price was $918,668.
Canterbury followed suit with an average asking price of $745,995, and a selling price of $759,715 – an average of $13,721 more in the hand for vendors.
Gisborne also recorded a bigger-than-average gain between asking and selling, from $692,420 to $704,256, an average upside of $11,835.
Coromandel buyers not budging
Meanwhile, Coromandel stood out as the region where vendors received notably less than their expectations, with an average asking price of $1,116,914 compared to an average selling price of $1,071,241 – a gap of $45,673.”
Other regions with the greatest disparity between asking and selling prices were Northland (-$14,117) and Waikato (-$8,399).
“While we always want to see a deal taking place, the property market only functions when buyers and sellers are prepared to negotiate and make sacrifices,” says Williams.
“With more properties on the market and prices holding steady, successful transactions often come down to pricing that both parties can agree upon and open negotiation.”
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