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Economy – GDP contraction a knock to confidence, but signs of recovery emerging – EMA

Source: EMA

The Employers and Manufacturers Association (EMA) says the 0.9% contraction in GDP for the June quarter is a reminder of the fragility of business confidence and the ongoing drag in building economic momentum.
“This result is a knock at the wrong time,” says Alan McDonald, Head of Advocacy and Strategy at the EMA. “Even though the data reflects the June quarter, and we’re now seeing signs of improvement, it still sends a negative signal to businesses that are already cautious about investing and hiring.”
McDonald says the lag in GDP data means it doesn’t fully reflect the current sentiment, which is slowly turning more positive. “We know from our exporters and primary producers that things are picking up, but there’s a two-speed economy. Sectors such as construction and services in the main cities are still struggling, and confidence remains delicate.”
While the June quarter figures are disappointing, they must be viewed in the context of a broader economic landscape that is beginning to show signs of life.
In addition to economic indicators, a range of legislative reforms are also beginning to take shape. Key developments such as changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA), infrastructure planning, immigration settings, employment law and the review of vocational education and training are all in motion. While these reforms take time to implement, they represent important steps toward improving the business environment and supporting long-term growth.
The EMA says it's critical that government continues to do all it can to accelerate the commencement of infrastructure projects that have already been announced and perhaps sequences those projects to prioritise regions facing economic pressure.
“Let’s get moving on the school and hospital upgrades announced in the May Budget,” says McDonald.
“Targeting areas like South Auckland, where growth is slower, would help restore confidence and create momentum. It’s not about spending more, it’s about spending smarter.”
Accelerating infrastructure projects stimulates economic activity and sends a strong signal to businesses about supporting recovery. The recent announcement of a funding boost for major events and tourism is also a welcome shot in the arm.
“Despite the knock, there are signs of movement. We just need to make sure we continue to build more momentum,” says McDonald.
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Health – "Backsliding opinions on gender and equality have no place in Aotearoa New Zealand in 2025

Source: Sexual Wellbeing Aotearoa

Societal attitudes to gender and equality are both caught and taught, Sexual Wellbeing Aotearoa chief executive Jackie Edmond says.
“In an environment where some people are feeling emboldened to make deeply offensive comments and where parts of our sexuality education curriculum are under threat, it should come as no surprise that we’re going backwards,” Ms Edmond says.
She was commenting on the Gender Attitudes Survey released yesterday by the National Council of Women New Zealand (NCWNZ) which showed us backsliding on opinions related to gender, equality, sexual violence, and sexual and reproductive health.
“Just this week, we’ve had a former politician make some startling comments about women – reducing them simply to body parts. You don’t make this kind of comment if it’s not what you’re thinking. Comments of this kind embolden others. Our leaders – in politics, in culture, in all aspects of society – need to step up, condemn this kind of rhetoric, take the lead and say these attitudes have no place in Aotearoa New Zealand in 2025.”
NCWNZ president Suzanne Manning noted that while the survey shows New Zealanders value gender equality, small parts of the population are reversing progress that has been achieved.
“We agree with the National Council of Women that we need to re-engage young people in these conversations. To do that, we need to ensure that what young people are hearing and being taught is positive, respectful and inclusive. We all have a responsibility to do something about it and not buy into the rhetoric.”
Read the survey results.
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Universities – Climate news hits wine prices, study suggests – UoA

Source: University of Auckland (UoA)

Climate-related news can influence how much people are willing to pay for wine, according to a study by University of Auckland finance academic Dr Gertjan Verdickt.

“I ask the question, if you see more climate-related news, are you willing to pay more or less for foreign wine? And my analysis shows it's less. The economic magnitude is meaningful with a one-standard-deviation increase in climate attention is associated with a 3.58 percent drop in the price of a bottle.”

In everyday terms, that would mean that when climate news spikes, the price a person is willing to pay for a US$480 bottle would fall by about US$17.

The decrease in the amount investors are willing to pay for a bottle of wine in relation to their exposure to climate-related news, says Verdickt, could mean a significant cost for fund managers and wine collectors.

He calls this phenomenon 'climate extrapolation' – when investors project climate news from their local environment onto an asset's valuation, even if that asset is tied to a different geography.

“I compare the price of these wines abroad relative to their price in France; I used France as my benchmark. In theory, the ratio should be one, meaning a bottle costs the same abroad as it does in France. When that ratio changes, I look to understand why.”

A growing body of research shows that personal experiences influence financial decision-making, and climate news and events are no exception, says Verdickt. Events like unusually hot weather or poor air quality can alter how people invest and spend.

One theory suggests that heightened awareness of climate risks prompts investors to seek out assets perceived as resilient, thereby driving up their value. Another view is that climate awareness makes people more cautious, highlighting the vulnerabilities of certain assets and reducing demand.

The decrease in what people are willing to pay for a bottle of French wine is amplified when the effects of climate change are most palpable, during the summer months, says Verdickt, who ruled out other explanations, including natural disasters, investor mood, general uncertainty and differences in bottle condition.

To test how climate news affects what buyers are willing to pay for the same bottle of wine in different countries, he employed a dataset of over 68,000 Bordeaux Premier Cru wine auction prices from 222 houses in 18 countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Overall, the study examined more than 70,000 auction transactions.

“I collected a large dataset from auction houses that sell wines from five Bordeaux Premier Cru producers in France. These are considered the best in the world. Because of their reputation, they are highly sought after, and the average bottle costs around US$480,” says Verdickt.

“This is not the kind of wine you casually open on a weeknight, at least … I don't. At the same time, these wines are frequently traded, which makes them a good product for analysis.”

The Bordeaux Premier Cru wines include five châteaus: Haut-Brion, Lafite Rothschild, Latour, Margaux, and Mouton Rothschild. These five producers constitute the most liquid and globally traded segment of the wine market, forming the entire benchmark' Liv-Ex Fine Wine index'.

Furthermore, there have been investment funds dedicated to investing in these five producers, ensuring that these wines, while still a consumption good, are also considered 'investment-grade' wines.

Verdickt's dataset also included climate change news for each of the 18 countries in the study. To understand climate perceptions in different countries, he used a 'Climate Attention Index'. This index breaks down climate-related attention across multiple countries by analysing over 23 million tweets from major (national) newspapers. Verdickt compared the newspaper tweets to authoritative climate change texts to generate a daily index with country-specific scores detailing levels of climate news.

The key takeaway from the study, that climate experiences can drive investor behaviour, is consistent with previous research showing that such experiences can also influence corporate voting and other financial decisions, according to Verdickt.

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Final Fire and Emergency New Zealand deployed firefighter returns home from Canada

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand

Fire and Emergency New Zealand’s final firefighter has returned from deployment to Canada.

The arrival of the International Liaison Officer on Thursday morning capped more than two months of deployments with 59 personnel assisting the Canadian wildfire response in Alberta and Manitoba.
Fire and Emergency also welcomed back its fourth deployment of Incident Management Team specialists on Wednesday.

Fire and Emergency Deputy National Commander Brendan Nally says he is immensely proud of the effort put in by all involved.

“Everyone who went over to Canada represented New Zealand very well.

“They’re bringing back invaluable experience of responding to large-scale wildfires which will enhance our wildfire response capability as we head into our wildfire season.”

Since 2000, Fire and Emergency has deployed more than 1600 personnel internationally to wildfire emergencies.

“We support other countries in their time of need and know that we will be able to call on them should we ever require assistance,” Brendan Nally says.

The deployment was also a big effort for those back home in New Zealand.

“I want to give thanks to the friends and family of those who deployed during this time,” he says.

“It is a big burden to take on back home to have your loved one away for five weeks at short notice, but we’ve heard countless stories of thanks from the people of Alberta and Canada for helping them in their time of need.

“I would also like to shout out to our National Coordination Centre team members and Region Deployment Coordinators and teams, who step out of their normal roles to fill the engine room behind these deployments to ensure they go as smoothly as possible.”
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GDP decreases 0.9 percent in the June 2025 quarter – Gross domestic product: June 2025 quarter – Stats NZ news story and information release

Source: Statistics New Zealand

GDP decreases 0.9 percent in the June 2025 quarter

18 September 2025

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.9 percent in the June 2025 quarter, following a 0.9 percent increase in the March 2025 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

Activity decreased in the June 2025 quarter across 2 out of 3 high-level industry groups: goods-producing industries fell 2.3 percent, and primary industries fell 0.7 percent. Service industries were flat.

“The 0.9 percent fall in economic activity in the June 2025 quarter was broad-based with falls in 10 out of 16 industries,” economic growth spokesperson Jason Attewell said. “GDP has now fallen in 3 of the last 5 quarters.”

Visit our website to read this news story and information release and to download CSV files:

We are continuing to experience technical issues with Infoshare that may mean data from Gross domestic product: June 2025 quarter will not be available via Infoshare Browse.

You can access the data in the Excel tables and CSV files in Download data, and via Infoshare Export Direct.

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Property Market – House price downturn fuels first home buyer momentum – Cotality

Source: Cotality

Property sales volumes fell for only the second time in 28 months in August, dropping by 5.2% compared to the same period a year ago, according to Cotality NZ’s Monthly Housing Chart Pack. (ref. https://www.cotality.com/nz/resources/downloads/monthly-housing-chart-pack )

It reveals that while the market is treading water, softening prices and improved affordability are creating valuable opportunities, particularly for first home buyers.

The Cotality Home Value Index recorded a further drop of -0.2% in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly fall. While this may signal ongoing weakness, it also means a given deposit can stretch further for prospective buyers.

“The recent property value downturn, while a reminder of market caution, is creating a more favourable landscape for buyers,” said Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist for Cotality NZ.

“We're seeing a clear shift in market composition, with first home buyers in their strongest position in two decades.”

First home buyers accounted for 27.5% of purchases over July and August combined, a testament to their resilience in the current climate.

Mortgaged multiple property owners also remained active, making up 24.6% of the market during the same period. Meanwhile, movers were quieter than usual.

A key factor in this trend is improved affordability.

Low-deposit lending to all owner-occupiers remained subdued at just 12.9% in July, well below the 20% allowance. This indicates that with house prices softening, a larger number of buyers are able to enter the market with a more substantial deposit, reducing their reliance on high-LVR loans.

“What might be discouraging for some property owners is beneficial for those on the other side of the coin,” Davidson added.

“With affordability better, listings starting to fall, and more existing borrowers repricing loans down to market interest rates, 2026 may look stronger for both property sales volumes and values.”

“The market is largely tracking sideways for now, but there are clear signs that momentum could build into next year.”

Highlights from the September 2025 Housing Chart Pack include:

  • New Zealand’s residential real estate market is worth a combined $1.65 trillion.
  • The Cotality Home Value Index shows property values across New Zealand edged down by -0.2% in August. This was the fifth modest fall in a row.
  • The total sales count over the 12 months to August is 87,875.
  • There are around 26,100 total listings on the market. The total number of properties listed on the market remains elevated, but a slow rise in sales volumes is gradually eroding stock levels.
  • The pace of rental growth remains weak, with net migration having fallen a long way from its peak, and the stock of available rental listings on the market still elevated.
  • Buyer Classification data shows first home buyers made up more than 27% of purchases over July and August combined, while smaller investors (‘Mums and Dads’) are having a comeback, targeting cheaper, existing dwellings.
  • Mortgage lending activity continues to rise, with bank switching still popular as more borrowers roll off a series of short-term fixed loans.
  • Gross rental yields now stand at 3.8%, which is the highest level since mid-2016.
  • Inflation is back in the 1–3% target range and the economy is subdued. The Reserve Bank looks set to cut the official cash rate again in the coming months, possibly reaching 2.5% by year-end.
  • The Chart of the Month for September highlights a controlled share of mortgage lending being done at a low deposit or high loan to value ratio. The falls in house prices mean that a given dollar deposit goes further, and reduces the need for higher LVR lending.
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Gross domestic product: June 2025 quarter – update


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Quarterly current account deficit $3.4 billion – Balance of payments and international investment position: June 2025 quarter – Stats NZ news story and information release


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Balance of payments and international investment position: June 2025 quarter – update


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Women’s Day of Action for Pay Equity – NZCTU

Source: NZCTU

This Saturday 20 September, 132 years after women secured the right to vote, thousands of women and allies across the country are taking to the streets to rise up against the Government’s gutting of the pay equity system.

Unions, women’s organisations, and community groups have come together to organise the Women’s Day of Action for Pay Equity, a nationwide celebration of working women whose rights are under attack.

More than 20 events are being held from Whāngarei to Invercargill including marches, rallies, family friendly events, and community gatherings.

“132 years after women secured the right to vote in Aotearoa, we gather again in strength and solidarity,” said NZCTU Secretary Melissa Ansell-Bridges.

“Government has cancelled pay equity claims that would have eased the cost of living and lifted pay for more than 180,000 people. These are the people who provide the services that make life possible, such as schools, libraries, hospitals, aged care, and disability support.

“On Saturday we will make it clear that pay equity will be a central issue at the next election. No government can dismantle pay equity – we have won it before, and we will win it again.

“This is more than a protest – it is a celebration of the women who nurture, lead, and resist. It honours the suffrage legacy and amplifies our collective power to shape the future,” said Ansell-Bridges.

Details of nationwide events:

Whāngarei

Laurie Hall Park

11.30am

Auckland

AUT to Britomart

11.30am

Thames

Cnr Pollen St & Pahau St

10.30am

Tauranga

Mt Drury Reserve

10.30am

Hamilton

Te Kura Nui O Rototuna High School

11.00am

Whakatāne

The Gap – Whakatane Town Centre

11am

Gisborne

Gladstone Road at the town clock

10.30am

New Plymouth

Puke Ariki Landing

12pm

Napier

Napier Soundshell

11am

Whanganui

Whanganui Market Stall

10am

Palmerston North

Clocktower in the Square

1pm

Levin

Cnr Queen St & Salisbury St

11am

Masterton

Town Hall Square

11.30am

Porirua

Te Rauparaha Arena

10am

Wellington

Midland Park to Parliament, followed by Wellington Cathedral

10.30am

Nelson

Carpark between Burger King & Library

11am

Greymouth

Dixon Park

12pm

Christchurch

Victoria Square

10am

Timaru

Artisan Market

9.30am

Dunedin

Market Reserve 

11am

Gore

Eccles Street Playground

12pm

Invercargill

Gala Street Reserve

11am.