Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: ASB Bank

September 2026

Jane Turner
Senior Economist
ASB Economics

Rising interest rates dull housing confidence

ASB Housing Confidence Survey

Net percent who believe (3 months to July 2026) …

Region	Good time to buy a house	House prices will increase	Interest rates will increase
Auckland	26%	4%	54%
Rest of North Island	19%	6%	61%
Canterbury	11%	23%	53%
Rest of South Island	14%	18%	61%
TOTAL NZ	20%	9%	57%
Compare 3 months to April 2026	20%	19%	48%

Source: Camorra

Good Time to Buy (percent)

Series: Unsure; Neither; Good; Bad.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

House price expectations continued to fall in the three months to July, with net 9% of respondents expecting prices to increase. This is down from a summer peak of net 30% expecting prices to increase (three months to January). Although net house price expectations are down, they remain close to average levels and are consistent with relatively balanced housing market conditions – with house prices largely trending sideways. We cannot rule out a small fall in house prices over the coming months but expect house prices to firm from 2027.

Buying sentiment was unchanged in the three months to July, which remains firm with net 20% feeling now is a good time to buy. Buying sentiment has been consistently positive since late 2024. Availability of choice remains a key factor underpinning home buying sentiment.

Interest rate expectations lifted again in the three months to July, with net 57% expecting borrowing rates to rise over the coming year. Respondents have increasingly anticipated that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would commence a tightening cycle this year, following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and subsequent increase in inflation. The breakdown in responses show there is minimal doubt over the direction of interest rates – 62% of respondents expect borrowing rates to be higher in one year’s time, while 14% expect interest rates to remain unchanged.

The RBNZ increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points in early July – and we expect the RBNZ to lift the OCR to 3.25% by the end of the year (although we see the risks skewed to fewer OCR increases if domestic demand indicators remain sluggish). Fixed-term mortgage rates have been lifting since the start of the year in anticipation of the RBNZ’s tightening cycle.

Reserve Bank makes its move

Interest Rate Expectations (net percentage)

Long-term average.

Series: New Zealand, Interest rate expectations Total*100.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Interest rate expectations lifted again in the three months to July with net 57% expecting interest rates to lift, compared to net 48% expecting an increase in the three months to April. The lift in interest rate expectations follows growing anticipation of Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and follows lifts in longer-term fixed mortgage rates over the first half of 2026.

The breakdown in responses show there is minimal doubt over the direction of interest rates – just 5% of respondents expect interest rates to fall over the coming year, confirming most anticipate we are past the lows for interest rates. 62% of respondents expect borrowing rates to be higher in one year’s time, and 14% expect interest rates to remain unchanged.

Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February and the subsequent surge in fuel prices and inflation forecasts, it has largely been a question of when would the RBNZ would start to lift interest rates rather than if.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand commenced its tightening cycle with a 25-basis point lift in the OCR in early July. By hiking in July the RBNZ has demonstrated its focus on keeping inflation expectations anchored. We expect the RBNZ will remain pro-active and hike the OCR 25 basis points at each remaining meeting this year – bringing the OCR to 3.25% by the end of the year (a total of 100bp increase).

With inflation likely to peak lower than initially feared and the RBNZ’s proactive response, we believe the OCR will peak at 3.25% – which is currently less than what financial market participants are expecting. While we have penciled in a 25-basis point OCR hike at each RBNZ meeting for the remainder of this year, we feel risks are skewed to a more gradual pace – with the potential for the RBNZ opting to pause at some point – particularly if domestic demand indicators remain sluggish.

In anticipation of the OCR increasing over 2026, mortgage rates had already started to lift through the first half of 2026 – particularly the longer-term fixed rates. The average 2-year fixed term mortgage rate (as reported by the RBNZ) has increased by 41 basis points since January, while the 1-year mortgage rate has increased by 21 basis points since January. More discussion on mortgage rates can be found in our home loan rate report.
https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-research/home-loan-rate-report.html

Interest rate expectations are at the highest level since April 2023 (net 59%). During the 2021-2023 tightening cycle, net interest rate expectations peaked at 81% – with 84% of respondents expecting an increase (in the three months to July 2022).

House price expectations: optimism wanes

House Price Expectations (net percent)

Long-term average.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

House price expectations continued to fall in the three months to July 2026, with just net 9% expecting house prices to increase. House price expectations have fallen from summer highs – where net 30% of respondents (surveyed three months to January) expected house prices to increase.

House price expectations have returned to their lowest level since July 2023 (when net 8% expected house prices to decline). During 2022 and 2023, as the RBNZ lifted interest rates to combat post-COVID inflation pressures, house price expectations reached a low of net 43% expecting house prices to fall.

Although net house price expectations are down, they remain close to average levels and remain consistent with relatively balanced housing market conditions – with house prices largely trending sideways.

A closer look at the breakdown of responses highlights the high degree of uncertainty around the housing market over the coming year. 15% replied don’t know – which is the highest since 2019 (when the housing market was also relatively flat). Uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, and the implications for fuel prices and interest rates have likely spilled over into housing confidence.

Most respondents expect house prices to remain largely unchanged over the next year (39%) while the next largest group were still optimistic of house prices increasing (27%). Only 19% of respondents are expecting outright declines in house prices.

House price expectations fell across the country over the three months to July, but falls were largest in Auckland and the rest of the North Island. Net house price expectations for Auckland and the rest of the North Island sit at 4% and 6% respectively, while the South Island’s housing market remains warmer with net house price expectations for Canterbury and the Rest of the South Island at 23% and 18% respectively. For more discussion on the South Island’s strong economic performance – see our latest regional scoreboard.
https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-research/regional-economic-scoreboard.html

We expect the housing market to remain subdued over the rest of 2026. The Reserve Bank’s OCR hike in July demonstrated its resolve to keep inflation pressures in check. Rising mortgage rates, ongoing cost of living pressures and a weak labour market will generate headwinds for the housing market through the rest of 2026. We cannot rule out a fall in house prices over the coming months. However, we expect economic conditions to improve toward the end of the year and we have penciled in recovery in house prices through 2027 – supported by a recovery in disposable income and a lift in population growth.

Still a buyers market

Good Time to Buy (net percentage)

Long-term average.

Series: New Zealand, Good time to buy Total.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Net 20% felt it was a good time to buy in the three months to July – unchanged from the previous quarter’s results. Buying sentiment has been consistently positive since late 2024, with 2025 seeing the strongest buying sentiment since the period following the Global Financial Crisis. While higher mortgage rates and the higher cost of living are expected to impact affordability – it appears that availability of choice remains a key factor underpinning home buying sentiment.

Housing demand has dropped since March, with house sales falling to the lowest level in 2 years in July (on a seasonally-adjusted basis). With the drop in demand, inventory (the number of houses available on the market) has edged higher (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) despite some offset from a pull back in new listings. The ample choice continues to allow buyers to take their time.

Buying sentiment remains the strongest in Auckland – where housing market conditions remain subdued. Over the past three months, sentiment improved in Auckland – with net 23% seeing it as a good time to buy in the three months to July, compared to net 20% in the previous survey.

Indeed, buying sentiment improved in all areas of NZ, except North Island excluding Auckland. Without further regional breakdown from the survey it is difficult to say why this was the case. However, looking at trends in days to sell there has been a fall in Northland (albeit from very high levels). Also looking at trends in total houses available for sale, housing inventory has not increased in Northland or Waikato – suggesting market conditions have not slowed as much in these regions and as a result, we have not seen an improvement in buyer choice in these regions.

48% of respondents were neutral on housing market buying conditions, feeling it was neither a good or bad time to buy in the three months to July. This was a slight tick down from the previous survey (50%) while the number who felt it was a good time to buy lifted to 29% from 27%.

Looking ahead, we expect the housing market to remain skewed in favour of buyers through the second half of 2026. Demand is likely to remain muted due to rising mortgage rates, cost of living pressures and a slow recovery in the labour market. Furthermore, residential consents have lifted strongly over the past 6 months which suggests there could be a strong pipeline of new housing construction adding to buyer choice. Looking beyond 2026, we are expecting to see a recovery in net immigration as departures to Australia slow. Stronger population growth and an improvement in labour market conditions will likely support a recovery in buyer demand and potentially tighten housing market conditions.

The Details

House Price Expectations (percent)

Series: Unsure; Unchanged; Increase; Decrease.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

House Price Expectations Regional Split (net expectations)

Series: NZ; Rest of South Island; Rest of North Island; Canterbury; Auckland.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Interest Rate Expectations Regional Split (net expectations)

Series: Rest of South Island; Rest of North Island; Canterbury; Auckland.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Good Time to Buy Regional Split (net percentage)

Series: Rest of South Island; Rest of North Island; Canterbury; Auckland.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Interest Rate Expectations and House Price Expectations (net expectations)

Series: House price expectations, lhs; Interest rate expectations, rhs.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Interest Rate Expectations (percent)

Series: Unsure; Unchanged; Increase; Decrease.

Source: Macrobond, ASB

Appendix

Housing Confidence Survey is conducted every three months by ASB Bank since July 1996.

We ask respondents about their expectations for house prices and interest rates over the next 12 months, and if it is a good time to buy a property.

This quarter, from May to July 2026, 2929 respondents from Auckland, other parts of North Island, Canterbury, and other parts of South Island participated in our survey.

Important Disclaimer

This document is published solely for informational purposes. It has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting on the information in this document, you should consider the appropriateness and suitability of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs, and, if necessary seek appropriate professional or financial advice.

We believe that the information in this document is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of its compilation, but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this document. Any opinions, conclusions or recommendations set forth in this document are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed elsewhere by ASB or Commonwealth Bank. We are under no obligation to, and do not, update or keep current the information contained in this document. No person involved in the preparation of this document accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this document.

Any valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this document are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Different assumptions and estimates could result in materially different results. No representation or warranty is made that any of these valuations, projections or forecasts, or any of the underlying assumptions or estimates, will be met. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Source: Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi

Public servants across the country will strike from 1pm on 9 September, sending a clear message to their employers and the Government that they won’t back down in their bargaining for better pay and service delivery.

Almost 10,000 public service workers will go on strike over bargaining for their respective collective agreements, including those working at the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA), the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), and the Ministry for Ethnic Communities (MEC); the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE); and the Ministry of Social Development (MSD).

“These public servants are facing pay offers well below inflation while working amid the devastating consequences of the Government’s public service cuts,” said Duane Leo, National Secretary of the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi.

Pickets and rallies will be held around the country. The PSA will make details availaible on its website once they're confirmed.

The DIA, NEMA, and MEC strike finishes at 6pm, the MBIE strike finishes at 5.30pm, and the MSD strike finishes at 3pm. Public servants at DIA, NEMA, and MEC went previously went on strike on 6 July. Public servants at MBIE held a stop-work meeting on 21 July, while public servants at MSD held one on 10 August.

“Despite months of bargaining for their respective collective agreements, these employers and the Government still refuse to hear concerns about the state of public services,” said Leo.

“These pay offers would send public servants backwards. And these public servants are telling us that their agencies’ ability to deliver is getting worse. We need to see commitments to fair pay and proper resourcing.”

“Tension has been building for months, and now it’s at breaking point: public servants are fed up with a government that overworks and undervalues them.”

Previous industrial action leading up to these strikes

MSD stop-work meeting: Over 5,000 public servants at MSD the latest to hold stop-work meetings amid bargaining for better pay and service delivery

MBIE stop-work meeting: Thousands of MBIE workers hold stop-work meetings over pay dispute

DIA, NEMA, & MEC strike: PSA members at Department of Internal Affairs vote to strike as pay lags behind cost of living

The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.

Source: deVere Group

August 31 2026

A Fed rate rise in September would be a costly overreaction to a story the numbers no longer support, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group’s warning come as swaps traders push the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike above 50%, up from around 35% before Kevin Warsh’s hawkish address in Jackson Hole, in which the Fed chairman vowed to keep pressing until inflation is “clearly” moving back to the 2% target ahead of the central bank’s meeting on 15 and 16 September.

The chief executive comments: “Warsh gave a tough speech in Jackson Hole, and markets reacted exactly as tough speeches make them react.

“But a warning isn’t a decision, and investors racing to price in a hike are getting ahead of a Fed chairman who left himself every route to hold.”

Inflation, Nigel Green notes, is easing rather than accelerating. July’s consumer price index rose 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June, with the monthly gain slowing to just 0.1%.

“Warsh talked about underlying pressure, and there is some.

“But the trend line is cooling, not running away. It’s hard to justify a hike in September on a data set that’s moving in the direction the Fed wants, even if it isn’t moving fast enough for his taste.”

The bigger complication, he argues, sits in the labour market. July’s jobs report showed the US economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 positions, while unemployment climbed to 4.2%.

“You don’t tighten policy into a labour market that just turned negative,” notes Nigel Green.

“A reversal like this changes the calculation entirely. Warsh knows a hike now risks turning a soft patch into something a great deal harder to reverse.”

Politics adds another layer to the standoff. Warsh was appointed by President Trump, who has pushed relentlessly for cheaper borrowing and openly criticised Warsh’s predecessor for moving too slowly on cuts, with November’s midterms only weeks after the September decision.

“Nobody at the Fed wants to look like they’re taking orders from the White House, and Warsh least of all after the credibility questions raised by his July press conference.

“But raising rates just as the labour market cracks and heading into an election would be reckless, whatever the optics of holding firm. He’ll want distance from both accusations, and holding gives him that.”

August’s CPI report, due 11 September, lands just days before the vote and could still move the needle either way, he acknowledges.

“A genuinely hot inflation print changes my view instantly, and I’d be watching energy costs and AI-driven demand as closely as anyone,” explains the deVere CEO.

“But barring a real shock in that report, the case for standing pat is far stronger than the swaps market currently believes.”

Nigel Green adds that Warsh’s insistence on a fixed 2% target, and his refusal to offer forward guidance, points to a chairman building room to manoeuvre rather than one locking in a decision.

“He deliberately didn’t commit to timing, and that matters more than the tone,” he says. “It seems that too many investors latched onto the warning and skipped past the caution built into it.”

Asked for his final call, Nigel Green is direct.

“Cooling inflation, a labour market that just rolled over, and an election-season Fed chairman under political pressure from both sides is not the backdrop for a surprise hike,” he concludes

“We can’t see him raising rates in September.”

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Source: Exercise New Zealand

31 August 2026

“When household budgets are tight, investing in your health shouldn't be the thing that has to go.”

“Last year, around 1,700 Kiwis took advantage of this initiative. This September, we want to help thousands more take that first step.”

“Sometimes people don't need more motivation, they just need one barrier removed.”

Thousands of New Zealanders could pay 40-70% less for a gym membership this September, as a nationwide initiative that helped around 1,700 Kiwis get into gyms and exercise facilities last year opens its latest allocation of subsidised memberships.

ExerciseNZ's Subsidised Gym Membership Programme is available through more than 350 participating exercise facilities nationwide and is designed specifically to help people who are not currently gym members overcome one of the most immediate barriers to getting started: cost.

September is the key rollover period where participating facilities receive a fresh allocation of subsidised memberships. Numbers at each facility are limited.

Feedback from people who utilised the initiative in 2025 suggests that reducing the financial barrier can be enough to turn an intention to exercise into action. Testimonials described the subsidy as the prompt they needed to “invest in my health”, a “great opportunity to join a gym in these expensive times”, and an incentive that helped them find a facility, sign up and get started.

ExerciseNZ CEO Richard Beddie says those experiences demonstrate why the programme is particularly relevant while household budgets remain under pressure.

“For a lot of people, motivation isn't the problem. They want to exercise and they know they'll feel better for it. But when every dollar counts, a gym membership can be one of the first things people decide they can't afford.”

“In the last 12 months, around 1,700 people took advantage of this initiative, and we received fantastic feedback. One comment in particular stood out: the discount had prompted them to invest in their health. That really captures what this programme is about, making exercise more affordable so more people can take that first step. This September, we want to give thousands more New Zealanders that same opportunity.”

Cost Is Becoming a Bigger Barrier to Being Active

The programme comes at a time when the latest national data is highlighting the impact affordability is having on participation.

Sport New Zealand's latest Active NZ 2024/25 report identifies time, cost and confidence as barriers to physical activity and highlights increasing affordability pressures. The report specifically identifies fee subsidies, alongside equipment and transport support, as ways of addressing affordability and access barriers.

Beddie says the findings reinforce why reducing the upfront cost of exercise matters.

“When people are having to make difficult decisions about groceries, power, rent, mortgages and other household costs, paying full price for a gym membership can understandably fall down the priority list.”

“But physical activity isn't a luxury. It's one of the most effective things people can do for their physical and mental wellbeing. If cost is the thing preventing someone from getting started, that's a barrier we should be looking for practical ways to remove.”

From Gym Subsidies to Prevention

The initiative's rollover period follows ExerciseNZ's presentation of its Physical Activity and Prevention in Aotearoa New Zealand White Paper to the Government, calling for physical activity and the exercise sector to play a greater role in preventative health.

Beddie says these subsidies demonstrate what removing one practical barrier can look like.

“The subsidy addresses one barrier immediately: cost. The bigger opportunity is ensuring physical activity and prevention become a much more deliberate part of New Zealand's health strategy.”

“We already have facilities and qualified exercise professionals throughout the country. The opportunity is to make better use of that infrastructure to help people stay healthy before they require more costly health interventions.”

September Subsidies Are Limited

The subsidised memberships are available to people who are new to gyms or have not been a gym member within the past 12 months and have not previously received the subsidy.

• 40-70% off standard gym membership fees
• Available through 350+ participating facilities nationwide
• Around 1,700 New Zealanders accessed the programme in 2025
• Designed for people new to gyms or who have not been a member in the past 12 months
• Available to people who have not previously received the subsidy
• Simple online application and voucher process
• Limited allocations available at individual facilities

Those eligible are encouraged to apply early while September allocations remain available.

To check your eligibility and apply for a subsidised membership, visit ExerciseNZ's Subsidised Gym Membership Programme.

Source: World Vision New Zealand

World Vision New Zealand welcomes the Education and Workforce Select Committee’s report on the Modern Slavery Bill and urges Parliament to pass the legislation before the election with strong cross-party support.

More than 340 groups and individuals submitted on the draft Bill, with significant support from businesses, advocacy organisations, and more than 900 handwritten submissions from children who attended World Vision Youth Conferences.

World Vision New Zealand’s Head of Advocacy and Justice, Rebekah Armstrong, says the strong showing of support sends a clear message.

“New Zealanders want this law. Businesses, investors, charities, children and communities have all said it is time for stronger measures to combat modern slavery, for greater accountability in our supply chains, and for stronger protection for people, especially children, who are harmed by exploitation.

“We are pleased the Select Committee has made some important improvements to the Bill and, crucially, that it’s retained a clear pathway for the Bill to become stronger over time.

“Now we need our politicians to heed the voices of New Zealanders and pass this Bill with support from across the house before the election,” she says.

World Vision welcomes several important features of the bill that have been retained, including:

• The public reporting framework
• The creation of a modern slavery register
• A three-year review that keeps further reform including an Anti-slavery Commissioner and enhanced victim-survivor provisions on the table

The organisation also welcomes stronger transparency requirements, including for businesses to report on due diligence actions to identify, address, prevent, mitigate and remediate modern slavery risks, as well as statutory functions requiring guidance to support implementation.

Armstrong says the Bill will help improve supply-chain visibility, encourage better governance, and give investors, consumers and the public detailed information about how organisations are responding to exploitation and slavery risks.

“Reporting and transparency can change business behaviour. They create expectations, improve internal systems, and make it much harder for modern slavery risks to remain invisible.

“Importantly, businesses will have to report not only on the modern slavery risks they face, but on the due diligence actions they are taking and whether those actions are effective.

“That creates much greater transparency about what businesses are actually doing to prevent modern slavery which matters, especially for children who remain highly vulnerable to exploitation and hazardous child labour in global supply chains,” Armstrong says

World Vision is pleased to see a statutory review within three years included in the legislation because it provides an opportunity to assess whether business behaviour and supply-chain practices are changing.

“Internationally, modern slavery laws are moving beyond disclosure and transparency alone towards mandatory due diligence, stronger enforcement, and clearer expectations for businesses to prevent harm. It’s important for New Zealand to keep in step with these developments.

“This Bill does not yet require mandatory due diligence, but this is an important and long-awaited step forward.

“New Zealand will finally have a dedicated framework requiring greater transparency about modern slavery risks and what businesses are doing about them,” Armstrong says.

Source: Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

Road freight association Transporting New Zealand says that decreasing investment in the road network will lead to transport issues that fuel the cost-of-living crisis.

The Government announced today that, if re-elected, the previously planned increase of 12 cents per litre in January 2027, followed by a further 6 cents per litre increase in January 2028 and annual 4 cent increases from 2029, will not go ahead. Instead, there will be an increase of 5c a litre from January 2028, followed by three 5-cent increases every six months until 2030. This is despite the fact fuel excise duty (FED) and road user charges (RUC) have not increased since 2020.

“Flatlining revenue from fuel tax and RUC alongside a significant increase in road construction costs means the actual purchasing power of our National Land Transport Fund has plummeted,” says the group’s chief executive, Dom Kalasih.

“New Zealand's road network is a national asset. Keeping it in good shape is essential for moving freight, growing the economy, and keeping communities connected,” he continued.

The announcement comes days after the Labour Party announced their promise to not increase FED or RUC for the next three years, as a measure to address the cost-of-living crisis.

“An inefficient transport network imposes extra costs on everyone,” Kalasih said. “Therefore, we welcome Minister Willis and Bishop’s acknowledgement that pausing fuel excise and RUC increases would result in a funding shortfall, and that this gap will be bridged with $1.476 billion in funds from alternative sources.”

“Poor roads increase freight times, spike vehicle maintenance costs, and waste fuel. These costs are inevitably passed down to consumers – for example, on supermarket shelves. Chronic underinvestment is a hidden tax on every single good moved in this country.”

Kalasih added that the next Government will have some very difficult decisions to make without an increase to FED or RUC.

“There will be trade-offs, and it’s all road users who will pay the price,” he said. “We will be seeking clarification from whoever forms the next Government on how it intends to deliver on the commitments in the current National Land Transport Programme.”

Ensuring road investment keeps pace with rising costs is a key call in Transporting New Zealand's 2026 Election Platform, being released on Tuesday the 8th of September.

Transporting New Zealand will be sharing its recommendations to the next Government on where action is needed to strengthen productivity and long-term economic growth, in the priority areas of:

1. Fuel and supply chain resilience
2. Infrastructure
3. Safer roads through smarter enforcement
4. Supporting the future workforce
5. Efficiency and lower-emission road freight

The Election Platform launch will be held online and at venues in Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin, Hamilton, and Hastings. These events are open to all attendees, not just Transporting New Zealand members, and more information can be found on the Transporting New Zealand website.

About Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand is the peak national membership association representing the road freight transport industry. Our members operate urban, rural and inter-regional commercial freight transport services throughout the country.

Road is the dominant freight mode in New Zealand, transporting 93% of the freight task on a tonnage basis, and 75% on a tonne-km basis. The road freight transport industry employs over 34,000 people across more than 4,700 businesses, with an annual turnover of $6 billion.

Source: United Liberation Movement for West Papua

31 August 2026

A West Papan leader in exile in Australia who is one of the Executive of the ULMWP group is calling on Pacific leaders at the Melanesian Spearhead Group and the Pacific Island Forum to condemn the recent increased military violence and to call for an immediate end to this violence in civilian areas and address other urgent issues related to land the environment. Her call is being supported by several Pacific based organisations.

“The letter sent today to Pacific leaders calls for immediate action because the humanitarian situation has reached a critical juncture, underscored by devastating casualties reported in recent weeks” Ms Makabory said,

She listed the following recent incidents as examples of many since mid 2025 until this day in 2026 which show escalation of extra judicial killings and use of drones and land mines in by the Indonesian military in civilian areas.

• The Drone Strike in Intan Jaya (Thursday, 18 June 2026): At approximately 1:00 PM local time, an elderly Papuan woman was killed, and two other women were severely injured in an attack involving explosive materials deployed by Indonesian military drones. Local sources indicate an alarming escalation in military tactics, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and landmines placed along civilian footpaths.
• The Fatal Shooting in Dekai, Yahukimo (Wednesday, 17 June 2026): At 4:05 PM local time, a young Papuan man was shot and killed in Yahukimo Regency, Papua Pegunungan. Eyewitness accounts from the victim's family directly implicate members of the Indonesian Marine Task Force.

She also noted the incident on 2 July 2026, American pilot Nicholas F. Gosselin of Associated Mission Aviation (AMA) was killed after landing in Yahukimo. The West Papua Liberation Army (TPNPB) claimed responsibility, alleging the aircraft was supporting Indonesian military operations, while Indonesian authorities stated it was conducting a civilian humanitarian mission.

“Regardless of the competing accounts, this tragic incident demonstrates the urgent need for independent international monitoring, transparent investigations, and renewed efforts to de-escalate the conflict and promote human rights.” Paula Makabory said,

“Under the internationally recognized doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), the global community—and neighbouring sovereign states in particular—has a duty to step in when a state fails to protect its population from systematic human rights violations.

The continuous deployment of heavy tactical forces has turned residential areas into active conflict zones, where indigenous Papuans are treated with inherent suspicion and lethal force. There have been 24 extra judicial killings in 2026 so far.

Severe human rights violations are rarely met with independent investigations or genuine justice, leaving civilian populations entirely defenceless and more than 125,00 people displaced and homeless in the Highlands.

The indigenous people of West Papua are an integral part of the Melanesian family. Their ongoing suffering directly weakens the security and solidarity of the entire Pacific region.”

She urged Pacific Island Forum Leaders to break the silence and take collective diplomatic action by issuing a formal condemnation of recent killings in Intan Jaya and Yahukimo, issue a collective call an immediate cessation of military operations in civilian areas, and demand a unimpeded United Nations access to investigate human rights abuses. She also called for condemnation of drone strikes, the establishment of a humanitarian corridor for aid for displaced people in the Highlands, a moratorium on mega projects in West Papua and an independent evaluation of Special Autonomy in terms of pathways to indigenous West Papuan self determination.

“The report also calls on the PIF leadership to challenge the crushing of peaceful dissent and the widespread destruction of indigenous land with resulting acceleration of deforestation and regional climate change risks.” Said Catherine Delahunty, spokesperson for “West Papua Action Aotearoa”.

She said that New Zealand and Australian Government were failing in their critical leadership roles by their silence on all these of the issues.

“The Pacific Island Forum has called or years for the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to be granted immediate, unrestricted access to West Papua to conduct an independent investigation, but this has been ignored and the PIF needs to ensure Indonesia can’t expect status at Pacific meetings while ignoring the PIF requests. The PIF Special Envoys Prime Minister of Fiji Sitiveni Rabuka and Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea James Merape, (whether at the Palau meeting or not) need to negotiate a firm timeline for a UN fact finding mission with Indonesia.” Paula Makabory said.

“The PIF and MSG must bring the West Papuan human rights crisis and land crisis to the forefront of the upcoming United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and relevant international human rights forums to ensure global oversight. The survival of our Melanesian brothers and sisters depends on leaders who are willing to champion human rights and regional stability over political convenience” Ms Makabory said.

Paula Makabory
Executive Member Of United Liberation Movement for West Papua
Head of Pacific Islands Mission

Undersigned by

Teanau Tuiono Green MP for Pacific Affairs Aotearoa /NZ
Catherine Delahunty National Spokesperson for West Papua Action Aotearoa
James Bhagwan – Pacific Council of Churches

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand

As we enter spring, forecasts from Earth Sciences New Zealand and Fire and Emergency New Zealand indicate El Niño conditions are likely to develop and strengthen over the coming months, with some guidance suggesting the event could become one of the stronger El Niño events on record.

Historically, stronger El Niño events have been associated with more frequent westerly winds, warmer temperatures, and below-normal rainfall in eastern parts of both the North and South Islands. However, the timing, severity, and extent of these impacts can vary considerably from one event to another.

Fire and Emergency Deputy Chief Executive Prevention, Stephen Hunt, says Fire and Emergency will continue to monitor conditions, communicate fire risk and provide advice on keeping safe.

“Despite the uncertainty of when and how El Niño will impact on New Zealand, it’s time for Kiwis to start preparing,” Stephen Hunt says.

“There are some simple steps people can take now to reduce wildfire risk around their properties. Clear dead and dry vegetation from around buildings, make sure emergency vehicles can easily access your property, ensure water supplies are available if firefighters need them, and keep spring grass growth under control. These actions can make a real difference if fire threatens your home or community,” he says.

“A fast-moving fire in Wanaka recently showed the speed at which a fire can grow and threaten homes, so we’re also asking people to consider what they will do should a wildfire occur in their community.

“We encourage people to get to know their neighbours, talk with their whānau about what they would do during a wildfire, plan evacuation routes, and prepare essential supplies in case they need to leave quickly. Taking these simple steps now can make a significant difference if conditions deteriorate over summer.”

You can create a wildfire plan for your home and community now using Fire and Emergency’s free tool at checkitsalright.nz/prepare-for-wildfire.

Deputy National Commander Megan Stiffler is calling on all New Zealanders to do their part to reduce the risk of fires starting this summer.

“Around 98 percent of wildfires in New Zealand are caused by people and their activities. We urge people to use fire safely and to always check the conditions and fire season status in their area before lighting an outdoor fire. They can do this and find more safety advice at checkitsalright.nz.

And while we’re asking New Zealanders to do their bit, we’re doing ours. Fire and Emergency is ensuring we’re operationally ready to protect communities this summer.

“We are working hard preparing for a potentially busy upcoming season by reviewing operational readiness, identifying emerging risk areas early, and working closely with local authorities, iwi, land managers, industry partners, communities and partner agencies from Department of Conservation, New Zealand Defence Force and the forestry sector.

“Our national coordination centre is ready to provide oversight during periods of heightened fire risk, and we can move personnel, appliances, and specialist resources between districts, including pre-positioning them in higher-risk areas if the conditions call for that.

“Over the past few months Fire and Emergency has provided personnel to support responses to wildfires across North America, a deployment which will help bring valuable knowledge and experience back for the upcoming season,” Megan Stiffler says.

Source: Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA)

 

The absence of a New Zealand government signature on a 22-member joint statement, which is condemning the E1 Israeli settlement in the Occupied West Bank, can only be interpreted as a ‘moral collapse’ in our foreign policy, according to the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa.

 

The recent joint statement was issued by the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the European Commission.

 

The statement condemned the decision by the Israeli Higher Planning Committee to approve plans for settlement construction in the E1 area, East of Jerusalem, as ‘unacceptable and a violation of international law’.

 

The E1 settlement would divide the Occupied West Bank into two regions – northern and southern.

 

PSNA spokesperson, Rinad Tamimi says the New Zealand’s government’s absence from the statement is even worse, in the context of the statement specifically citing UN Security Council Resolution 2334, describing the settlements as a “flagrant breach of international law.”

 

“The Key/English National Party government co-sponsored this resolution at the UN Security Council in 2016.  But the Luxon National Party, even after the genocide in Gaza in the past three years, can’t even bother to put its name to this recent condemnation,” Tamimi says.

 

“In the nuanced world of world of international diplomacy, Israel will be taking favourable note of New Zealand’s slide into not caring what atrocities Israel is committing.”

 

“Without taking any other action, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has always made of point of saying he often ‘made his concerns known’ to Israel.  Now he’s even given up on that.”

 

Tamimi is also concerned that none of New Zealand’s political parties have specific policies to support Palestine in their election manifestos.

 

Tamimi says Israel’s genocide in Gaza is the worst atrocity of the 21^st century.  

 

“While there is meant to be a functioning ceasefire, the latest news from Gaza is that Israel has reoccupied more than 70 percent of Gaza, Israeli forces have resumed their assault because children in Gaza were flying kites.  And on the Occupied West Bank Israeli settlers are openly beating up foreign network journalists with impunity.”

 

New Zealand has practical and significant symbolic leverage against Israel which it deliberately has decided not to use.”

 

“As you would expect, all three coalition parties, pretend there is no such thing as foreign policy.”

 

“Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori have expressed support for Palestine, including imposing sanctions.”

 

“But they need to clearly state what type and level of sanctions.  Even the present government can say its immigration bans on West Bank terrorist settlers constitutes a sanction.”

 

“It all amounts to just election rhetoric, without announcing specific and meaningful sanctions in all areas; trade, investment, diplomatic, military and immigration,” Tamimi says.

 

“Without sanctions, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the Greater Israel project, are all still licenced for Israel to action.” 

 

Rinad Tamimi

National Spokesperson

Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa

Source: Aged Care Association

The Aged Care Association says Labour's commitment to guarantee jobs for graduate nurses is welcome recognition that New Zealand needs to secure and grow its nursing workforce but warns the policy must not unintentionally make it even harder for aged residential care to recruit nurses.

“Aged care is health care. Any workforce policy designed to strengthen New Zealand's health system must recognise the 40,000 aged residential care beds that are providing healthcare to older New Zealanders every day,” Aged Care Association Chief Executive Hon Tracey Martin says.

“We absolutely support getting our graduate nurses into jobs. But if the guarantee directs those nurses predominantly into Health New Zealand while aged residential care continues to compete with different pay and employment conditions, the Government will simply shift the workforce pressure from one part of the health system to another.”

The Association says the proposed increase in recruitment subsidies for primary and community care could help aged care providers recruit graduates, provided aged residential care remains fully included. But recruitment incentives alone will not solve the longstanding pay disparity between Health New Zealand and aged residential care.

“We have already seen what happens when the pay gap between hospitals and aged care grows. Nurses understandably move to where the pay and conditions are better. Unless aged care funding moves alongside public hospital nursing remuneration, that gap will simply open up again.”

Ms Martin says the consequences extend well beyond the aged care sector.

“New Zealand's public hospitals have around 10,000 beds. Aged residential care has around 40,000. We are also going to need another 9,000 to 12,000 aged residential care beds as our population ages.

“You can put more nurses into hospitals, but you still only have one person in each hospital bed. If there is nowhere appropriate for an older person to go once, they no longer need acute hospital care, that bed remains occupied and the next patient cannot get into it.

“That is why aged residential care is such an important part of hospital capacity. Our sector provides 24-hour nursing and care, takes people out of hospitals, prevents avoidable hospital admissions and provides the long-term care that hospitals were never designed to provide.

“Anything that reduces our access to nurses ultimately reduces our ability to take pressure off hospitals.”

The Aged Care Association is calling on Labour to confirm that aged residential care providers will be fully included in its graduate nurse employment pathway and eligible for the increased recruitment subsidies.

It is also seeking a commitment that government funding for aged residential care will maintain nursing pay relativity with Health New Zealand, rather than allowing another significant pay gap to develop.

“If the objective is to strengthen the health workforce, then we need to think about where nurses are needed across the whole health system.

“We cannot solve the hospital workforce problem by creating a bigger aged care workforce problem.

“Aged care is health care, and workforce policy needs to reflect that.”