Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Covering period of Thursday 3rd – Tuesday 8th July – We’re in the thick of it again today (Thursday), with a slew of Heavy Rain Warnings and Watches, Severe Thunderstorm Watches, Strong Wind Watches, and a Heavy Snow Watch. The hits just keep coming with these quick moving systems, it’s giving us weather whiplash.  

In amongst the widespread rain, the top half of the North Island is on the lookout for downpours with Severe Thunderstorm Watches from this afternoon.  Commute time in Auckland is looking busiest, so it’s a good idea to head home earlier if you can.  

MetService Meteorologist Katie Hillyer advises, “The localised downpours are the real risk we are highlighting with the Severe Thunderstorm Watches; people shouldn’t be fooled by the lack of thunder and lightning. It’s a good time for people to turn on notifications in the app for any Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that may be issued for their area”.  

Damaging winds are also possible for Northland and Auckland, with a background of strong winds as per the Strong Wind Watches, combined with the potential of gusts between 90-110km/hr in any Severe Thunderstorms. As the heavy rain band moves off, these areas are not completely out of the woods, with heavy showers and possible thunderstorms and hail on Friday and Saturday. It will take until Sunday and into Monday for these areas to get some settled weather, even if it’s not for as long as we’re hoping.  

Heavy Rain Watches have also been issued for the Wellington and Kapiti regions for this afternoon and evening.

Rain is setting in the Tasman, Nelson and Marlborough regions as they are under their Heavy Rain Warnings until 7pm today. “While accumulations are not as high as last week, the saturated starting conditions will play a huge part in the impacts we will see, so it is important to not get caught comparing numbers to last week”, says Hillyer. “We advise on the weather, but local emergency management services and councils know their areas best, so people are encouraged to also pay close attention to their messaging and advice”, she continues. After this rainband moves off today, showers, some possibly heavy, continue into Friday and early Saturday before settled weather pushes in.

A different flavour in the south of the country, with a Heavy Snow Watch for Southern Canterbury High Country, Queenstown Lakes District, and Central Otago where down to 600 metres, snow may approach Warning criteria, but those down to 400 metres may get a fresh dusting today. Many road passes have the risk of snow settling, so travellers should keep up with messages from NZTA Waka Kotahi. Dunedin and North Otago are also under a Heavy Rain Watch from 3pm-3am, before gradually settling into the weekend.

Please keep up to date with the most current information from MetService at MetService – Te Ratonga Tirorangi: https://metservice.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=63982abb40666393e6a63259d&id=52c6509eec&e=852c839bf9

3 July 2025 – A surprising trend has been uncovered in a recent survey of New Zealand's real estate landscape: a significant slice of Kiwis are making spontaneous home purchases.

According to a realestate.co.nz study, 24% of participants have found themselves as property owners at some stage, having made the leap without the initial intention to buy. Within this group, 8% ‘accidentally purchased’ in the past year.

Vanessa Williams, spokesperson for realestate.co.nz, said while it may sound unusual for someone to 'accidentally buy a house,' the data suggests it's more common than many would believe:

“Kiwis have a real affinity with property; browsing listings is almost a national pastime. Attending an open home or an auction can quickly turn from casual interest to serious investment when the right property catches your eye and the price feels within reach.”

Williams notes that choosing a home is often choosing a lifestyle, and the emotional connection to a space or location can strongly influence decision-making.

realestate.co.nz has been tracking this data since 2020, which has revealed a cycle not too dissimilar to the property market.

“The 2025 data is a telling sign of growing optimism among property buyers,” says Williams.

“We haven’t seen this level of ‘accidental purchases’ since April 2022, which was coming off the back of a hot market.

The latest data indicates a correlation between these unexpected purchases and increased income. Individuals who bought a house without prior plans in the last 12 months reported a personal income of 54% above the average.

Accidental purchasers are also predominantly male (66% vs. 34% female), with an average age of 30.2 years.

Auckland remains the hot spot for these unplanned acquisitions, with those in the super city more likely to have made an impulse buy (51% compared to 31% of survey respondents overall). Williams says income is likely a factor here as well, but adds that a diverse market with ample choice, like Auckland, may also fuel spur-of-the-moment decisions.

“While it’s important to have a property investment plan that works for you and your personal circumstances, the property market can provide numerous opportunities for those with an open mind – something a fairly significant portion of the population seems to already know well,” says Williams.

The survey, conducted between 9 and 13 June 2025 reflects responses from 1,045 New Zealanders, with the results weighted on age, gender, personal income, ethnicity and region to match the New Zealand adult population. The survey has a maximum margin of error of ±3% overall.

About realestate.co.nz

We’ve been helping people buy, sell, or rent property since 1996.  

Established before Google, realestate.co.nz is New Zealand’s longest-standing property website and the official website of the real estate industry.

Dedicated only to property, our mission is to empower people with a property search tool they can use to find the life they want to live. With residential, lifestyle, rural and commercial property listings, realestate.co.nz is the place to start for those looking to buy or sell property.  

Whatever life you’re searching for, it all starts here.

Want more property insights?

• Market insights: Search by suburb to see median sale prices, popular property types and tr
  

An independent watchdog would shine a light into the shadowy world of security and counterterrorism, says Associate Professor John Ip in a research paper.

Since the 2019 Christchurch mosque attacks, New Zealand has introduced several counterterrorism laws, significantly expanding state power. Now, a legal expert says it’s time to follow the UK, Australia and Ireland in appointing an independent watchdog to keep that power in check.

In his paper, ‘The case for an independent reviewer of counterterrorism legislation in New Zealand,’ University of Auckland Law Associate Professor, John Ip, says although necessary, counterterrorism legislation often lacks provision for ongoing oversight.

Counterterrorism legislation, says Ip, is characterised by a government’s need to react to an incident decisively and quickly, leaving little time for public input, legislative deliberation or scrutiny. Once on the books, counterterrorism legislation is rarely repealed and difficult to ratchet back.

“This makes scrutiny and oversight essential, especially given the potential impact on individual rights and freedoms.”

Since 2019, New Zealand has introduced counterterrorism legislation including the Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Act, the Counter-Terrorism Legislation Act, and the Counter-Terrorism Acts (Designations and Control Orders) Amendment Act. But Ip says this relative flurry of legislation hasn’t been matched by any permanent oversight mechanism.

“It’s important that any unintended consequences, gaps and shortcomings are brought to light and that the public have confidence that the powers conferred by counterterrorism legislation are being used appropriately.”

Ip argues that creating an independent review entity would enhance public understanding, facilitate evidence-based policymaking and augment existing legal and political avenues of scrutiny and oversight.

“Countries around the world quickly react to acts of terrorism, and in this, we see expansion, or at the very least, some consolidation of the power of the state. We see the creation of a stronger national security state. And as this is happening, we should strengthen the oversight and control of those same institutions.”

However, the options for oversight currently available, says Ip, have limitations.
“As is typical of national security matters, secrecy shrouds the operation of counterterrorism law. Secrecy around national security creates a problem – those who might provide oversight often don’t have access to the whole picture.

“In the courts, legal challenges depend on individuals bringing cases, but secrecy can mean a wrong can’t be established because of a lack of publicly available evidence. When they do hear cases, without a comprehensive picture, judges are also likely to be more deferential.”

Temporary review bodies such as public inquiries also have limits, says Ip. For example, the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into the 15 March attacks meant that the Commission was not allowed to look into the police’s initial response.

“These kinds of inquiries and bodies also stop existing once they deliver their final report. If the government chooses not to act on the recommendations, there’s little option in following up or pushing for change later on.

“These limitations, including that more specialised review bodies tend to be either ad hoc or otherwise circumscribed in scope, suggest the need for something different.”

In his paper, Ip examines overseas models, including the UK’s Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation (IRTL). The IRTL is legally qualified, independent of government, and has access to the same classified information as ministers, enabling impartial, informed oversight.

Unlike courts, which look into specific cases, the IRTL has a broad mandate to review counterterrorism legislation as a whole.

While the UK model is interesting, Ip says New Zealand might more closely follow the formal statutory approach exemplified by Australia’s Independent National Security Legislation Monitor, and to a lesser extent Ireland’s Independent Examiner of Security Legislation (IESL). Both are created by legislation with clearly defined powers and responsibilities.

“A permanent independent office, with comprehensive access to information, could review the operation of counterterrorism legislation here and publish reports with findings and recommendations,” says Ip.

“Independent review bodies play a crucial role in shining a light into the shadowy corners of the world of security and counterterrorism.”

Read the paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5265484#:~:text=Drawing%20on%20models%20from%20the,with%20its%20findings%20and%20recommendations.

AUCKLAND, 3 July, 2025 — Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC) and a global leader in helping clients realise their investment objectives, shape the future of work and enhance health and retirement outcomes for their people, today announced the appointment of Anna Scott as Mercer’s New Zealand CEO.

In her new role, Ms Scott will be responsible for leading Mercer’s operations across New Zealand, working closely with local and regional teams to further develop Mercer’s capabilities in superannuation, health and benefits, workforce solutions and investment services for the benefit of clients and members.

“Anna has the right breadth of experience to lead Mercer’s trajectory in New Zealand,” said Toni Ferrier, Marsh McLennan’s New Zealand CEO. “Through her deep understanding of our market, combined with her international experience, she will draw on the best of Mercer’s global expertise and capabilities to serve the needs of clients and members and deliver business growth. We look forward to welcoming her to the business.”

Ms Scott brings over 20 years of experience in the financial services and consulting sectors, both in New Zealand and internationally, to the role. She has demonstrated a capacity to identify business opportunities and align strategy with customer outcomes in her prior roles as Chief Executive Officer of New Zealand fund manager Smart and Chief Operating Officer for Hobson Wealth.

Ms Scott said, “I have long admired Mercer for its investment and consulting capabilities. I’m excited to work with Mercer’s local Board and leadership team, to continue to support clients’ and members’ investment and retirement needs and deliver strategic workforce solutions to New Zealand’s businesses.”

Ms Scott will be based in Auckland and will report to Ms Ferrier and is expected to start her new role on 1 October 2025.

About Mercer

Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), is a global leader in helping clients realize their investment objectives, shape the future of work and enhance health and retirement outcomes for their people. Marsh McLennan is a global leader in risk, strategy and people, advising clients in 130 countries across four businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Oliver Wyman.

With annual revenue of over $24 billion and more than 90,000 colleagues, Marsh McLennan helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit mercer.com

Hotspots for the conservation of maire tawake or swamp maire in the Wellington region have been identified by researchers hoping to save this threatened native tree from the deadly myrtle rust disease.

Swamp maire is thought to have been common in the wetlands that once covered the Wellington region. However, farming and urban development have significantly reduced its numbers. The arrival of myrtle rust in 2017 added a new threat and the tree has a conservation status of “nationally vulnerable”.

Priority areas for its conservation have now been mapped in the western suburbs of Lower and Upper Hutt and in the towns of Paraparaumu, Waikanae, Ōtaki, Masterton, Carterton, and Featherston. These priority areas comprise up to 52 km2.

“We've identified sites that are likely to have the highest abundance of swamp maire and the lowest risk of myrtle rust. They're also easy to access so we think focusing on these sites offers the most cost-effective conservation strategy,” said Dr Sarah Herbert, a researcher in biological sciences at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington.

Dr Herbert said the sites could act as refuges for swamp maire, with additional planting undertaken to help maintain the tree's population as myrtle rust spreads.

“Myrtle rust is a fungal plant pathogen that is primarily spread by the wind. It has a devastating effect on swamp maire, causing an almost complete loss of flowers, fruits, and new leaves. There's an urgent need to identify sites where conservation and wetland restoration can take place to help ensure this treasured tree's survival,” she said.

In addition to the priority sites for conservation, the researchers identified other areas that could act as refuges for the tree but these areas would require more intensive management.

“We mapped up to 233 km2 where swamp maire is present in relatively high abundance but where there is a higher risk of myrtle rust, so more effort would be needed to manage the sites. On the plus side, these areas are easy to access and existing community conservation efforts could be supported to allow more intensive control of myrtle rust.”

Pockets of less accessible land in the wider Wellington region could also be considered as refuges for the tree's conservation, she says.

“We identified up to 134 km2, mostly within indigenous forest in the eastern Tararua range and in farmland in the Wairarapa, with potential for swamp maire conservation. Wetland restoration and swamp maire planting programmes by landowners and communities may be possible in places that can be accessed by off-road vehicles or on foot.”

The researchers were able to identify areas for swamp maire conversation by using models of the Wellington region's soil moisture and plant distribution to pinpoint sites where swamp maire was likely to be growing. They then mapped the risk of myrtle rust infection in these areas and graded sites by how easy they were to access.

Results of the research are published in the journal Conversation Biology: https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.70088

The Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the eleven months ended 31 May 2025 were released by the Treasury today. The May results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (BEFU 2025), published on 22 May 2025, and the results for the same period for the previous year.

The majority of the key fiscal indicators for the eleven months ended 31 May 2025 were slightly better than forecast. The Government’s main operating indicator, the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx), showed a deficit of $7.9 billion. This was $0.2 billion smaller than forecast. While the core Crown results were favourable to forecast this was largely offset by weaker results from State-owned Enterprises. Net core Crown debt was close to forecast at $180.3 billion, or 41.8% of GDP.

Core Crown tax revenue, at $111.2 billion, was $0.6 billion (0.6%) higher than forecast. The largest variances related to corporate tax at $0.7 billion (4.4%) above forecast and other individuals’ tax at $0.3 billion (3.2%) higher than forecast, which were partially offset by lower than forecast GST revenue of $0.2 billion (0.6%) and other direct tax revenue of $0.1 billion (3.0%).

Core Crown expenses, at $128.7 billion, were $0.3 billion (0.2%) above forecast.

The OBEGALx was a deficit of $7.9 billion, $0.2 billion less than the forecast deficit. When including the revenue and expenses of ACC, the OBEGAL deficit was $12.3 billion, $0.2 billion lower than the forecast deficit.

The operating balance deficit of $3.9 billion was close to the $4.1 billion forecast deficit. This reflected both the slightly favourable OBEGAL result, and offsetting valuation movements. Net gains on financial instruments were $1.8 billion lower than forecast, driven by New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZS Fund) and ACC’s investment portfolio. The majority of this unfavourable variance was offset by net gains on non-financial instruments being $1.6 billion higher than the forecast loss. This was largely owing to the net actuarial gain on the ACC outstanding claims liability being $1.3 billion higher than forecast.

The core Crown residual cash deficit of $4.9 billion was $0.4 billion lower than forecast. While net operating cash outflows were $0.5 billion higher than forecast, net core Crown capital cash outflows were $0.9 billion lower than forecast.

Net core Crown debt at $180.3 billion (41.8% of GDP) was broadly in line with forecast. The favourable residual cash position was partially offset by non-cash items, contributing to the net core Crown debt result.

Gross debt at $202.5 billion (47.0% of GDP) was $7.2 billion lower than forecast, largely owing to lower than forecast derivatives in loss and issuances of Euro Commercial Paper.

Net worth at $184.3 billion (42.7% of GDP) was broadly in line with forecast largely reflecting the year-to-date operating balance result as well as movements in reserves.

1. Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 March 2025) of $431,038 million (Source: Stats NZ).
2. Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
3. Using BEFU 2025 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2025 of $435,148 million (Source: The Treasury).
4. Net core Crown debt excludes the NZS Fund and core Crown advances. Net core Crown debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.

Economic snapshot: March 2025 quarter – media release

3 July 2025

Our economic snapshot summarises important economic statistics for the March 2025 quarter.

It uses statistics drawn from key Stats NZ datasets to provide insights into New Zealand’s overall economic performance.

The economy grew in the March 2025 quarter, but contracted over the year.

• New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter, following a 0.5 percent increase in the December 2024 quarter.
• GDP fell 1.1 percent over the year ended March 2025, compared with the year ended March 2024.

Visit our website to read this news story:

• Economic snapshot: March 2025 quarter