New Zealand leaders favour small incremental changes in response to escalating climate impacts rather than the bold changes needed to make a real difference, according to research by University of Auckland academic Dr Sasha Maher and Professor Brad Jackson (University of Waikato). 

The study finds current leadership practices insufficient, encouraging small, fragmented steps that weaken climate policy.

Maher and Jackson say responsibility-focused leadership that builds relationships and collective action, is needed.

“New Zealand is in the process of designing a national adaptation framework, and questions regarding leadership are being actively debated,” says Maher.

“Our paper examines leadership responses to climate change, particularly climate adaptation. We explore whether leadership in this area is enabling transformative adaptation, or whether it’s just reaffirming the incrementalist, status quo approach.” 

Adaptation, the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change, aims to mitigate risks and protect communities. However, the paper, published in the journal Leadership, suggests that the country’s current approach could exacerbate inequities and perpetuate long-term risks.

Interviews with stakeholders, and an analysis of public documents from 2021 to 2024, found that current climate adaptation practices fall short, favouring piecemeal responses.

“Although we found evidence that key stakeholders, from government and non-government groups, agreed on the purpose of adaptation leadership, there was considerable divergence about who adaptation leadership should benefit,” says Maher. “Also concerning was the avoidance of any particular group to take an explicit responsible leadership position.”

Under the current government, a major reason for adaptation is to minimise fiscal costs, says Maher. This was also a concern for the previous government, but it sat alongside other considerations, including equity and justice, particularly for Māori and vulnerable communities.

Now, she says, political narratives take a much stronger pro-market approach, signalling that climate adaptation leadership should be devolved to individual homeowners and the market.
“This has encouraged actions such as the construction of personal sea walls; it has also provided the insurance sector with a governance role to direct behaviour via pricing risk.”

By shifting responsibility onto individual homeowners and insurers, climate leadership has narrowed to protecting property rather than addressing inequities or broader environmental impacts, say the researchers.

“New Zealand’s emerging form of adaptation leadership leans towards incrementalism, cutting off recognition of our collective ties and obligation to others,” says Maher.

“Central government should place equity and relationships at the centre of adaptation, ensuring that responses to floods, storms, and rising seas are not only about protecting property, but about strengthening and safeguarding vulnerable communities.”

The study began following severe floods in the West Coast, Buller, Tasman and Marlborough regions in 2021. These flood events raised questions about adaptation costs, whether insurers would withdraw from high-risk areas, and whether some communities might need to relocate permanently.
 
Maher and Jackson analysed documents including parliamentary reports, policy briefs, submissions, ministerial advice, annual reports, and media articles. Sources included the Ministry for the Environment, Treasury, MBIE, the Reserve Bank, the Climate Change Commission, insurers, banks, planners, the property sector, Forest and Bird, the Environmental Defence Society, and news outlets.
 
They also interviewed experts and stakeholders, asking them what leadership should look like in a future of more frequent events, such as floods and storms, and who they thought should take responsibility.
 
In light of their findings, the researchers say climate adaptation leadership should be responsibility-focused, led by central government and put equity and community first.

Source: ASB

ASB’s latest Economic Forecast Update signals a cautiously optimistic outlook for New Zealand, as the country navigates a steady – if uneven – recovery from the past few years’ economic challenges. While the June quarter saw a sharp contraction, recent data point to stabilising conditions and the early signs of a turnaround.

The latest ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast report, released today, highlights that while the recovery is taking longer than hoped, resilient export performance and improving consumer spending are providing a strong foundation for cautious optimism. The housing and labour markets continue to face headwinds, but lower interest rates and easing inflation are expected to support a gradual lift in activity over the coming year.

“The road to recovery is proving bumpy, but there are encouraging signs that New Zealand is finding its footing,” says Chief Economist Nick Tuffley. “While the June quarter took a hit, we’re seeing the seeds of a domestically driven recovery, with lower interest rates and resilient export performance providing a foundation for growth.”

Economic Outlook

ASB expects the Reserve Bank to deliver a 50-basis point cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in October, with a further 25bp cut likely in November – potentially bringing the OCR down to 2.25% before Christmas. This is expected to provide relief for mortgage holders and support a gradual recovery in house prices.

“The economy feels like it needs a bit of a circuit-breaker to overcome uncertainty and create courage for households to spend and businesses to invest,” says Nick. “The onus is now on the Reserve Bank to work to overcome the effects of its post-COVID tightening cycle.

“However, a structurally higher cost environment, a lacklustre wealth effect from a sluggish housing market, and a lower spending propensity given the erosion of savings buffers make it harder to convince us that this will be a ‘rockstar’ recovery – perhaps more indie pop/soft rock star,” says Nick.

Sector Highlights 

• Primary exports: Dairy, beef, and kiwifruit continue to perform strongly, supporting rural balance sheets and helping buffer the wider economy. 
• Consumer spending: Volumes are recovering, especially for durable goods, as lower mortgage rates begin to flow through household budgets. 
• Housing market: Demand is picking up, but excess supply and cautious buyers mean price growth remains modest. 
• Labour market: Unemployment is at a five-year high, with wage growth subdued and cost pressures easing for households. 

Looking ahead

New Zealand’s path to recovery is likely to remain bumpy, with progress shaped by ongoing changes in global trade, domestic demand, and the housing and labour markets. While stabilisation in key sectors and the prospect of lower interest rates offer reasons for cautious optimism, challenges and economic ‘potholes’ are no doubt expected along the way.

The coming year will be crucial in determining whether these early signs of improvement can develop into sustained growth and renewed confidence for households and businesses as the country continues to navigate the speed bumps of recovery.

The latest ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast, along with other recent ASB reports covering a range of commentary, can be accessed at the ASB Economic Insights page: https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-insights.html

A new real estate brand has launched to meet the modern needs of property vendors and buyers in the Southern Lakes.

The new agency – Aspire Realty – is a future-focused brand that combines deep market knowledge with modern marketing strategies and a personalised, relationship-driven approach. Founded by respected real estate professional, Craig Myles, the agency is based in Wānaka but will represent select properties in the wider Lakes region.
 
“Aspire Realty is about freedom: the freedom to adapt our marketing to our values and our clients’ needs,” Myles says. “We’re creating a bespoke experience without the limits of corporate brands. Even in a high-tech world, people still want genuine relationships and trusted expertise. At the end of the day, it’s the agent who sells the property, not the brand.”
 
With a career sales record exceeding $500 million since 2014, Myles brings extensive local experience and a commitment to transparency. He has spent more than a decade working in the region’s property sector, earning multiple industry awards and building strong relationships across the Southern Lakes.
 
Joining Myles as partner in Aspire Realty is skilled salesman, leader and negotiator George Wallis, who brings high-level expertise from the corporate and automotive sectors.
 
“We’re looking forward to providing an elevated real estate experience that has not been presented in the Southern Lakes before,” Wallis says. “Aspire Realty is about aspiration – not just owning a home but embracing the lifestyle this region offers. We’re proud to bring a modern brand to life that reflects our experience and gives us creative freedom.”
 
The Aspire Realty team also encompasses Emma Pledger, Robyn Myles and Mandy Myles, who have extensive cross-industry experience. While the agency specialises in premium property, Aspire Realty represents a broader range of properties across the region and is launching with a range of high quality listings both on and off market.

Myles says the Southern Lakes remains one of the country's most desirable places to live and invest.

“Buyer behaviour and marketing methods are shifting, but demand here remains strong,” he says. “The investment opportunities and lifestyle here attract buyers from offshore – particularly Australians and ex-pat Kiwis – as well as purchasers from throughout NZ.”