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Climate – Extreme rainfall in New Zealand from future cyclones could rise by up to 35% – Earth Sciences

Source: Earth Sciences New Zealand

Rain from tropical cyclones to increase under warmer climate
New high-resolution modelling predicts that rainfall from tropical cyclones will significantly increase under global warming.
Earth Sciences New Zealand and the University of Waikato found that, under a high emissions scenario, extreme rainfall from cyclones could rise by up to 35% across the southwest Pacific, including for ex-tropical cyclones impacting Aotearoa New Zealand.
Researchers used the latest climate change projections released last year by Earth Sciences NZ (then NIWA) with the Ministry for the Environment. Study lead and climate scientist Dr Peter Gibson says they simulated more than 1,800 years of data from different climate models and levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
“We wanted to assess how the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific may change by the end of the century. Under the full range of climate scenarios examined there was an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall. This was proportional to the rate of emissions, with the most pronounced rise in extreme rainfall occurring under the highest emissions.”
“If that scenario plays out, we can expect around 30 – 35% more extreme rainfall during tropical cyclones than we experience today. Even under the best-case scenario, we will still see an increase proportional to the warming experienced. Extreme windspeeds are also likely to increase, but not to the same extent.”
“The more greenhouse gases that are emitted, the higher temperatures get, with a high emissions scenario representing around a 3°C increase by the end of the century. A warmer atmosphere holds more water, so when storms develop, they have access to more water vapour that can be released as heavier rainfall. And while the model simulations didn’t show an overall increase in the total number of cyclones by the end of the century, there is compelling evidence that the strongest (category 4 and above) will become more frequent.”
“One or two ex-tropical cyclones typically effect New Zealand each year. However, it’s the really big, much rarer events that cause the most damage. And the difference between a river flooding or not can often be small, so any increase in rainfall is significant and potentially very impactful.”
The February 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle, which at its peak reached category 3, and the Auckland Anniversary weekend event, resulted in total estimated costs of $14.5 billion, with the total insured losses for both events totalling $3.8 billion, with $1.8 billion from Cyclone Gabrielle claims, and $2 billion from the Auckland anniversary weekend event. Most the claims were because of widespread flooding.
Until now, most projections of tropical cyclones have relied on global climate models, which have a relatively low spatial resolution. This work refines those models to a regional scale that can zoom in closer and get a much more accurate picture.
“The eye of a cyclone is fairly compact, at only tens of kilometres across. Global climate models are coarse, with each pixel going down to around 100km, meaning they miss much of the crucial detail and small-scale physics of a storm. Our refined regional model goes down to around a 12km resolution, making it a state-of-the-art dataset for assessing ex-tropical cyclones that impact New Zealand.”
These findings, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , are consistent with other studies around the world, highlighting the potential for more intense tropical cyclones and heavier rainfall in the future, said Dr Gibson. This indicates increasing risks for vulnerable communities across the southwest Pacific and New Zealand.
“It’s clear that if we reduce emissions, we reduce warming, and we mitigate the worst impacts of severe weather events. As computing capabilities improve, newer, high-resolution models will become available to create even more accurate and reliable long term climate projections of cyclones and their impacts. More research is being undertaken by Earth Sciences NZ into specific weather and climate hazards in the projections, to provide clarity on the future climate New Zealanders are likely to face in the decades to come.”
Notes
The latest climate projections for New Zealand, available on the Ministry for the Environment’s website , provide detailed information for every 5-kilometre square across the country. They are based on refining the projections from six global climate models in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Development of these updated, high-resolution climate projections involved huge supercomputing power. The dataset is now helping New Zealanders – including councils, companies and communities – to better understand their specific climate-related risks. In turn, this will improve decision-making for climate adaptation and support people to build resilience to extreme weather events.
More research is being undertaken by Earth Sciences NZ into specific weather and climate hazards in the projections, to provide clarity on the future climate New Zealanders are likely to face in the decades to come.
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Energy Supplies – Gas crisis will cost NZ jobs and industry – BusinessNZ

Source: BusinessNZ

BusinessNZ says urgent and coordinated action is needed to avoid what gas users describe as a ‘devastating’ disruption to New Zealand jobs, services and manufacturing.
Chief Executive Katherine Rich says New Zealand’s dwindling natural gas supply is an issue that must be taken seriously.
“The assumption that industry can quickly switch to electricity is incorrect. I recently met with food producers across the country, who say transition to electric on local networks lack the capacity to support their industrial needs.
“Businesses reliant on natural gas include those who brew beer, produce infant formula, process meat and vegetables – all processes that require industrial heat and a continuous, dependable supply.
“Without gas, some of these operations will either relocate overseas or shut their doors. That means job losses, reduced exports, and the erosion of our manufacturing capability.”
Rich says the scale and urgency of New Zealand’s gas production problem demands a bipartisan approach.
“This is not a problem that can be solved by one government term or one political party. Without bipartisan agreement on the role of gas in our energy mix and a clear long-term plan, businesses will continue to face uncertainty and investment will stall.
“We must act now. Every year we delay brings us closer to a wave of de-industrialisation – and the loss of skilled jobs, regional investment, and domestic production capacity. The cost of inaction will be far greater than the cost of getting this right.”
Notes to the editor:
A survey of 66 commercial gas users reveals:
  • Almost  half have already reduced operations, increased prices, or cut staff due to rising gas costs or unreliable supply.
  • Prices have surged over 100% in the past five years, with a quarter of businesses paying $25 or more per gigajoule.
  • Eighty  percent have gas contracts expiring by 2027, leaving a narrow window to secure alternative energy solutions.
BusinessNZ and BEC are calling for:
  • A  joint industry-government plan for a managed reduction in industrial gas supply, including targeted support for industries able to transition and contingency planning where no viable alternative exists.
  • Immediate  action to free up supply, including responsible development of known reserves and streamlining consenting processes.
  • Government  funding and infrastructure planning to enable realistic transitions to alternative energy sources.
The BusinessNZ Network including BusinessNZ, EMA, Business Central, Business Canterbury and Business South, represents and provides services to thousands of businesses, small and large, throughout New Zealand.
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GAZA: 100 children starved to death: A needless tragedy that should shame the world – Save the Children

Source: Save the Children

The reported deaths of 100 children due to starvation in Gaza [1] since October 2023 is a devastating milestone that shames the world and demands long overdue urgent action, Save the Children said.
Ahmad Alhendawi, Save the Children’s Regional Director for the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe, said:
“What kind of a world have we built to let at least 100 children be starved to death while the food, water and medical supplies to save them wait just miles away at a border crossing? Children in Gaza are being starved by design by Israeli authorities. This was a wholly predictable and avoidable tragedy that humanitarian organisations have been warning about for months. We knew this would happen; no one can say they didn’t.
“With the Ministry of Health only able to provide data from what's left of Gaza’s health facilities, we know these figures are just the tip of the iceberg. Who knows how many more young lives have been needlessly destroyed?
“We also know that, for children, conditions like malnutrition can lead to lifelong health issues like stunting, weakened immune systems and organ failure. The effects of malnutrition can span generations, with its impacts on children making learning and development harder, creating a cycle of poverty for the entire population. Even those who survive this could be condemned to a lifetime of suffering unless the Government of Israel urgently allows the full, immediate, unfettered access of life-saving food, clean water, medical supplies and staff.
“While these unbearable figures climb ever higher, we must not lose sight of the fact that these are not just numbers but young lives, full of potential. Elsewhere, these children could have grown up healthily, with a roof over their heads, a family to care for them, an education and opportunities for the future. But in Gaza, nearly two years of war and a chokehold on lifesaving aid have condemned children to mass deaths, suffering, and shattered futures – all of which are entirely preventable.
“All available evidence indicates that the Government of Israel is using starvation as a method of warfare – a war crime under international law. Israeli authorities are obliged to provide aid to and protect civilians, and the international community is obliged to ensure that and enforce international law across the board. This dereliction of legal duty is on all of us. This is a moral scar on our shared humanity and shames the world.”
About Save the Children 
Save the Children has been working in Gaza for decades. We are running two primary healthcare centres in Gaza, providing essential services to children, mothers, and families, including screening and treatment for malnutrition. We are running mother and baby areas with support for infant and young child feeding and community management of acute malnutrition.
We are ready to scale-up lifesaving aid alongside our partners. Our teams deliver water, run child-friendly spaces and mother and baby areas where pregnant and breastfeeding women can receive support on nutrition and infant feeding and psychosocial care. We also set up temporary learning centres to help children continue their education.
We have trucks waiting to move to the border once approved, loaded with lifesaving items ready to enter, including nutrition and care items for mothers and babies and medical supplies, as well as tents and tarpaulins.
[1] Ministry of Health figures
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Property Market – Home ownership dream remains alive despite gloomy survey results – (FAMNZ)

Source: Finance and Mortgage Advisers Association of New Zealand (FAMNZ)

New Zealanders are being urged not to abandon their dreams of home ownership, despite a survey* revealing 72 percent of non-homeowners believe buying a property is beyond their reach.

Finance and Mortgage Advisers Association of New Zealand (FAMNZ) managing director Peter White AM says while the results of the survey by market research agency Perceptive aren’t surprising, many would-be owners have more options than they realise.

Mr White said research by FAMNZ revealed that many Kiwis directly approach a bank to enquire about finance, and when rejected, falsely believe there are no other options.

“Banks provide great facilities and products but the misconception that a bank is the sole source of lending is preventing many aspiring homeowners from realising their dreams,” he said.

“There have been many cases when an adviser has arranged financing or refinancing after a bank has said no,” Mr White continued.

“There are other lenders outside the traditional banks with different lending criteria, so I would urge aspiring homeowners to see a mortgage adviser first, but also if they’re knocked back by a bank.”

He said mortgage advisers also had access to non-bank lenders, and consider each borrower's unique situation, taking this into account to find the most suitable loan.

Mr White said each borrower has different needs and often a bank product may not be the best fit, but this doesn’t mean there is no path to home ownership.

“For example, self-employed people who can’t show a regular wage may not fit the criteria for some traditional bank products, so a mortgage adviser may in some situations recommend a non-bank lender as the most suitable option.

“Many of these non-bank lenders are not accessible to the public and only available through a mortgage adviser.”

He said as good as many bank products are, “a bank can only offer you the products they have, and these often don’t consider the unique financial circumstances of the borrower.”

With interest rates predicted to continue their downward trajectory, Mr White urged those who want to enter the market or refinance, “not to give up hope but to ask a mortgage adviser to provide options.”

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Business – Industrial gas users almost out of options

Source: EMA

A lack of available gas supply will force price increases and some very tough decisions across multiple business sectors as today’s release of the Industrial and Consumers Gas Survey highlights .
“We’ve got several members struggling to source supply beyond September or the back end of this year, then they are facing increases of 20%, 30%, 40%, or even more – if they can even source a supply contract,” says EMA Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald.
“Multiple respondents to the survey, and many of the 150 attendees of the Gas Users Forum last week, said that supply issues are already leading to increased prices, reduced production and decreases in the workforce.
“This at a time when the manufacturing sector in New Zealand is under real pressure and, as a country, we are facing current and increasing de-industrialisation of the economy. For a number of businesses, their energy options are limited and their ability to transition to other energy sources is constrained either by cost or geography.
“For example, greenhouse growers of vegetables would face huge transition costs, as would milk powder and baby formula producers for their dryers.
“Another forum attendee, who already has to truck gas to his site, would face the cost of building 50km of lines and poles to the nearest substation capable of supplying the required energy levels for his plant.”
New Zealand’s problem is not unique as the country heads down a path of more renewable energy to mitigate climate changes and shift away from fossil fuels. But other countries have recognised the need to retain gas, in particular, as a transition fuel to achieve and support the shift to renewables.
“The long-term shift to mainly renewables is the right pathway and a laudable goal,” says McDonald.
“But it’s laughable when we’re facing importing more coal than ever and forcing more businesses to switch to either coal or diesel or potentially shut down because of their higher energy prices.
“In the short term, we’re asking big users such as Methanex and others to reduce production to make more gas available, but that’s hardly sustainable.
“Changes to the RMA and fast-track legislation will encourage the building of new renewable generation in the next few years. But wind and solar farms need the backing of thermal generation, building new hydro dams would take a decade or more – if they could be consented at all – and it will also take time to develop more geothermal or the still-theoretical deep-bore geothermal options.”
The survey highlights that many businesses are unable to afford the transition to renewables in the short term, with most requiring 15-20 years or more to be economically viable. The survey also shows that most of those gas users are disillusioned about the long-term future of gas, despite the recent announcement of the $200 million government co-investment fund for exploration announced in the recent Budget.
At the Gas Users Forum, that gloomy future was predicated on the previous government’s decision to ban oil and gas exploration and the opposition’s ongoing rhetoric about reinstating the ban when re-elected.
“Elsewhere around the world, economies have recognised that gas is the optimal, viable transition fuel while renewables are scaled up,” says McDonald.
“Labour’s MPs continue to say there is no gas there to find. Well, there won’t be if you're not looking.
“In the meantime, it’s likely we’ll see further de-industrialisation of the economy, more factory closures and more job losses.”
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Advocacy – International Youth Day Highlights the Resilience and Hope of Palestinian Youth

Source: Palestine Forum of New Zealand

On the occasion of International Youth Day, organizations and advocates worldwide unite to celebrate Palestinian youth. Despite the ongoing challenges of conflict, limited resources, and restrictions on movement, Palestinian young people demonstrate outstanding resilience, creativity, and leadership.

Palestinian youth are at the forefront of efforts to promote peace, justice, and human rights in their communities. Their drive for education, innovation, and social change continues to inspire hope for a brighter future. The global community recognizes not only the obstacles these young people confront but also their unwavering spirit, courage, and commitment to building inclusive societies.

On this International Youth Day, organizations reaffirm their commitment to support Palestinian youth as they strive for dignity, equality, and opportunity. “Palestinian youth are our greatest assets,” said a spokesperson. “Their vision is essential for shaping a future where all can thrive in peace and freedom.”

Stakeholders and supporters call for increased investment in education, employment opportunities, and initiatives that empower Palestinian youth to fully realise their potential. The international community stands in solidarity with Palestinian youth, championing their rights and amplifying their voices for positive change.

Maher Nazzal
Palestine Forum of New Zealand

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Energy Sector – Gas market crisis: Industry warns of ‘devastating consequences’ ahead

Source: BusinessNZ

New data confirms that New Zealand’s industrial gas market is in crisis, with immediate action required to save jobs, services and manufacturing in New Zealand.
Businesses large and small recently shared their concerns with the Minister for Resources and discussed support strategies to manage the declining gas supply at this year’s Gas User Forum, hosted by the BusinessNZ Energy Council (BEC) and Optima.
Optima Managing Director Martin Gummer says natural gas is used for much more than electricity generation.
“Natural gas is a crucial fuel for New Zealand industry. It’s used in the creation of everyday products and services for New Zealanders. Things like coffee roasting, beer brewing, infant formula, meat and vegetable production, all harness natural gas as part of their process.”
Industrial and commercial gas users were surveyed ahead of the forum. Results reveal a critical and deteriorating situation in New Zealand's natural gas market.
“Almost half of the surveyed businesses (31 of 66) have reduced operations, increased prices, or cut staff due to rising gas costs or unreliable supply. The average level of concern regarding future gas availability and pricing is 4 out of 10, with uncertainty about the availability of contracts going forward,” Gummer says.
BEC Executive Director Tina Schirr says survey results paint an alarming picture, with significant cost pressures for users.
“On average, prices have surged more than 100% in the past five years, with a quarter of businesses surveyed now paying $25 or more per gigajoule. Most businesses surveyed (80%) have contracts expiring by 2027, creating a narrow window for necessary transitions to alternative energy sources.
“If we do nothing, a major de-industrialisation crisis could escalate in the next two years, having serious and devastating consequences for suppliers and customers of gas-using businesses.”
Schirr says while some businesses can transition to alternatives, it’s not an easy fix.
“More than 40% of businesses surveyed say transitioning to alternative fuels is not commercially viable within the next five years, with a further 20% uncertain. Even with a phase-out period of 15 years, only 75% of all respondents were confident of being able to transition.
“The remainder say that switching may be possible if barriers are removed – including the prohibitive cost of conversion, lack of proven alternative technologies, uncertainty about commercial viability, and the high cost or difficulty of upgrading on-site supply infrastructure.
BEC and Optima believe that for industries able to transition, a joint industry and government plan for a managed reduction and transition away from industrial gas supply is needed, aiding industries in adopting alternative technologies. Government funding and clear long-term energy strategies are critical to support these transitions.
“We urge the government to use all the levers at its disposal to help free up gas supplies and get more gas out of the ground. Minister Jones has been doing good work in this regard, but we’re only scratching the surface.
“Increased investment in developing gas fields short-term is desperately needed to reduce the shortfall in supply. For investors to feel confident there needs to be bipartisan agreement, providing important stability and certainty.”
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Advocacy – Government delay on recognising Palestinian state weak and deeply embarrassing – PSNA

Source: Palestinian Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA)

 

The government decision to delay till September considering whether to recognise a Palestinian state is weak and deeply embarrassing. 

 

Recognising a Palestinian state is decades overdue and the government could even delay it further.

 

There was a time when New Zealand would have been a leader in standing up for human rights and international law but we are now the slowest follower in the western world – a shameful place to be.

 

But recognising Palestine is NOT a substitute for sanctions against Israel. 

 

“Sanctions against Israel is the only way to force this apartheid state to end the genocide in Gaza” says PSNA Co-Chair John Minto. “This is the urgent priority.” 

Israel continues with the mass killing and mass starvation of Palestinians in Gaza because it has never been held to account by western countries such as New Zealand. 

 

“This impunity for genocide must end”

 

 

This Saturday 16 August the Palestine Solidarity movement has a National Day of Action for Palestine. 

 

People in more than 30 centres will be rallying and marching and demanding the NZ government recognise Palestine and impose government sanctions against Israel’s genocidal attacks on Palestine. 

 

John Minto

Co-Chair PSNA

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Renewable Energy – Offshore Wind Developer JERA Nex bp Launched

Source: JERA Nex bp

11 August 2025 – Parkwind, the company looking to develop a large-scale wind farm off the coast of South Taranaki, is now part of one of the world’s largest offshore wind developers, JERA Nex bp.

The formation of the 50:50 joint venture – which combines the offshore wind assets of bp with those of Parkwind’s former owner, Japan’s JERA – was completed on August 1.

Peter Spencer, formerly Country Manager New Zealand, Parkwind and now Country Manager New Zealand, JERA Nex bp, welcomed the move.

He said the company was investigating the development of a large-scale wind farm which, if delivered, would establish the foundations for offshore wind in New Zealand and become one of the country’s largest power stations.

Such a project would bring significant energy security benefits by protecting water storage in the existing hydro schemes for when it’s needed most in dry years.

JERA Nex bp CEO Nathalie Oosterlinck said: “JERA Nex bp begins life with a strong operating portfolio and an extensive development pipeline. We bring together two highly capable teams with the experience, relationships, purchasing power and unique global access of two of the East and West’s pre-eminent energy companies. This gives us the expertise and experience to find new ways to create value from offshore wind and become one of the world’s leading companies in the sector.”

Spencer said offshore wind was a proven, scalable technology that could diversify New Zealand’s energy mix, boost resilience, and advance the country’s environmental goals.

“But for this to happen, our regulatory environment needs some fine tuning.
 
“The Government deserves credit for advancing a regulatory regime to facilitate renewable energy development, and a new offshore renewable energy act will represent a significant milestone. However, we need to ensure that the legislative framework is fit for purpose and gives certainty to help build a compelling investment case that draws capital to New Zealand over competing countries
.
“For example, to attract capital to New Zealand we need to consider how our regime can reassure long-term investors and offer synergies to investors also interested in Australia.
 
“JERA Nex bp is a significant global scale investor, builder and operator of offshore wind. Without fit-for-purpose regulation, investors will simply look elsewhere, and New Zealand will miss an excellent opportunity to secure its resilient clean energy future.”
 
About JERA Nex bp

JERA Nex bp is a purpose-built offshore wind company committed to unlocking the power of offshore wind by developing high-quality, competitive projects. A 50:50 joint venture between JERA Co. and bp, JERA Nex bp is an end-to-end developer, owner and operator with more than fifteen years of experience in operating offshore wind projects.
Headquartered in London, with offices across Europe, Asia, US and Australasia, JERA Nex bp has a portfolio of operational and development projects across nine countries, and draws on a rich heritage of pioneering offshore wind in Asia Pacific and the North Sea.  
www.jnbp.com
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Advisory: ACC workers to continue strike action tomorrow – PSA

Source: PSA

Tomorrow morning, PSA members at ACC will picket in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin as part of strike action.
This is the second strike in as many months at ACC, as members continue to oppose an unacceptable pay offer while the effects of low wages continue to bite.
“Since the last strike in July, ACC has failed to make a pay offer that values their workers and helps them keep up with the cost of living. Many are still earning less than the living wage,” said PSA National Secretary Fleur Fitzsimons.
A recent survey of PSA members at ACC found that the cost of living over the last six months has had a significant impact on almost all respondents. More than half (58%) have been looking for other jobs outside of ACC with better pay.
Over 90% have had to reduce spending on non-essential items; 78% have found it harder to afford basic necessities such as food, housing and utilities; and 80% feel less financially secure than 6 months ago. 37% have had to seek additional income including by taking a second job or borrowing, and 3% (14 people) have had to rely on foodbanks.
“Everybody deserves to be paid fairly for their work and have enough to care for themselves and their whānau. With this strike, our members are showing ACC they won’t stand for being paid less than what they need to live with dignity,” said Fitzsimons.
Picket times and locations
– Auckland – Manukau: 11:15-11:45am, corner of Cavendish Drive and Plunket Avenue.
– Auckland – New Market: 11.15-11.45am, outside ACC office, 73 Remuera Road .
– Wellington: 11.15-11.45am, outside Shamrock House, 81/83 Molesworth Street, Thorndon.
– Christchurch: 11.10-11.45am, Bridge of Remembrance.
– Dunedin: 11.10-11.45am Outside Ōtepoti Building facing Queens Gardens.
Additionally, at 11am, members in Nelson are staging a walkout from their office at 47 Collingwood Street.
The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.