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Deep Sea Mining Campaign – New Briefing Paper Released as TMC Reports $184.5M Loss for Q3 2025

Source: Deep Sea Mining Campaign (DSMC)

The Deep Sea Mining Campaign (DSMC) has today released Shifting Tides, a new briefing paper analysing The Metals Company’s (TMC) plan to mine the Pacific Ocean via the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act (DSHMRA). The paper finds that TMC’s proposed pivot introduces significant regulatory uncertainties, and heightens financial, legal, and regulatory risk for investors. 

Drawing on TMC’s own filings, investor presentations, and pre-feasibility study, the briefing concludes that the U.S. licensing pathway is far more complex than TMC likes to suggest. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the process is likely to take at least 18 months, and could face administrative delays or legal challenges. 

“The regulatory pathway is uncertain, politically exposed, and wholly dependent on support in Washington that cannot be guaranteed over time. Investors should be wary of assuming this shift resolves any of the risks that have dogged the project for years,” said Andy Whitmore, Finance Advocacy Officer at the Deep Sea Mining Campaign. 

Shifting Tides also highlights serious questions about TMC’s own financial viability, including:

  • Over-reliance on untested regulatory processes under DSHMRA 

  • Political dependencies that introduce significant volatility

  • Questionable assumptions in revenue projections 

  • Underestimating costs, including royalties payments 

  • Ongoing uncertainties around the feasibility of commercial-scale nodule extraction and processing.

Rather than stabilising the company’s trajectory, TMC’s U.S. pivot appears to introduce new political, legal, and commercial vulnerabilities. This includes a major red flag whether minerals and metals produced via this pathway could be in breach of international law, affecting a range of non-US partners. 

“TMC’s own filings acknowledge political fragility and the possibility of delays. Investors should understand that this pivot is not the solution Gerard Barron wants you to believe it is,” adds Whitmore. 

Shifting Tides provides a detailed assessment of these risks and analyses what the U.S. pathway might mean for timelines, market confidence, and the deep sea mining industry. 

The briefing paper is available at this link: https://dsm-campaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Shifting-Tides-TMCs-U.S.-Pivot.pdf?utm_source=media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=tmc_us_pivot

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Banking – ASB Investor Confidence Survey: Confidence up 9% for Q3

Source: ASB

  • Net investor confidence is now at 10%, up from 1% last quarter, with Auckland up to 16%.
  • Perceptions of a home as the best returning investment have dropped to their lowest level since first measured in 2015, with under 30s driving the shift to other investments, particularly the share market with confidence jumping to 21%. 
  • Global and domestic issues continue to strongly influence the mood, with perceptions divided among different demographics.

Investor confidence in New Zealand has shown an improvement this quarter, despite the fact that Kiwis continue to navigate a landscape marked by global uncertainty, a flat domestic property market, and evolving expectations for returns.

Across the country, investor confidence is highest in Auckland at +16%, while confidence for the rest of New Zealand is up to 7%, including the South Island at 8% and Lower North Island lowest at just 3%.

ASB Senior Economist Chris Tennent-Brown notes “Investor confidence has improved. Markets have recovered since the volatility we had earlier in the year, and that’s impacting sentiment positively now, but the flat housing market and lower term deposit rates continue to weigh on the mood.”

For a second consecutive quarter, global political instability or uncertainty is the top concern for investors, with 90% citing it as a key factor.

There has been a notable decrease in those saying they are ‘very or extremely concerned’, and fewer investors are making or considering adjustments to their portfolios. In fact, 53% of those with concerns are now choosing not to make any changes – an improvement from last quarter.

Chris says “What we’re seeing is that investors are becoming more accustomed to uncertainty. Based on our customers’ behaviour, most are choosing to stay the course and not make changes to their portfolios, even as global headlines continue to shift.”

When it comes to perception of best returns, Kiwi views are evolving. One’s own home continues to be rated the best investment overall, but this sentiment has dropped to 15%, the lowest level since we started measuring it in 2015.

“While property is still on top, it’s with much less conviction than in the past. New Zealanders are still looking for signs of recovery in the housing market, but it’s clear that confidence in this traditional favourite is being challenged.”

Perceptions about housing being the place to generate the most wealth are very low for under 30s, who may still be trying to work out how to get into the property market, a stark but understandable contrast to the over 60 participants, whose wealth may be tied up in property,” explains Chris.

In contrast to the low readings on housing, the under 30s surveyed are clearly focussed on other investments, particularly the share market, where confidence has lifted significantly over the past quarter, jumping to 21% compared to 13% in the previous quarter and making it the area that the predominantly Gen Z generation is most confident in when it comes to returns.

Overall, managed investments have held steady at 14%, just after KiwiSaver, which has now overtaken rental property and term deposits in perceived return. Public shares are also gaining favour, with perceptions increasing to 12%. Other options such as rental property, term deposits, and bank savings accounts remain stable, but are no longer seen as the stand-out choices they once were.

“Looking ahead, the overall message is one of cautious optimism. While confidence has edged up, the underlying drivers of uncertainty, like global events, policy changes, and a sluggish property market, remain. Investors are adapting to a constantly changing global backdrop, and while the mood is more positive than last quarter, it is far from buoyant.” says Chris.

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Education – ERO finds removing cell phones from classrooms improving learning, reducing bullying – but only half of secondary students follow the rules

Source: Education Review Office

ERO finds removing cell phones from the classroom has improved learning and reduced bullying – but only half of secondary students follow the rules.
Education Review Office’s (ERO) independent review has found that removing cell phones from the classroom has improved students’ learning. From Term 2 last year, students were required to keep their phones away during the school day.
“ERO has found that removing cell phones from the classroom has had a really positive impact on students’ learning” says Ruth Shinoda, Head of ERO’s Education Evaluation Centre.
  • Eight in ten secondary teachers report removing phones has improved students’ focus on schoolwork.
  • Two-thirds of secondary teachers report students’ achievement has improved.
“The good news is that removing cell phones from classrooms hasn’t just improved learning, it has also improved behaviour and reduced bullying,” Ms Shinoda says. “This means that teachers can spend more time on teaching and less on managing behaviour.” 
  • Three-quarters of secondary teachers report removing cell phones has improved student behaviour in the classroom.
  • Two-thirds of secondary leaders say bullying has decreased.
  • Teachers report students are now talking more and having good social interactions during breaks now that they aren’t on their phones.
These improvements are despite only half of secondary students following the rules. “Student compliance is an issue in secondary schools,” Ms Shinoda says. “ERO found less than 4 in 10 Year 12 and 13 students follow the rules.”
“School leaders and teachers have put in a lot of time and effort into getting cell phones put away,” says Ms Shinoda. “ERO found that strong teacher enforcement is the key to improving compliance and raising student outcomes.”
  • When schools strongly enforce the rules, students’ compliance doubles and they are nearly twice as likely to improve their behaviour and reduce bullying. 
  • Tougher consequences like notifying parents also increases compliance and confiscating phones doubles students’ likelihood of improved focus in class and achievement.
ERO found parents need to do more to support schools in getting cell phones put away. “What is concerning is that the top reason students break the rules is to connect with their family – 3 in 5 rule-breakers do so for this reason,” says Ms Shinoda.
  • When parents resist phone rules, students are almost twice as likely to break the rules.
There is further to go. Half of secondary teachers report wearable devices as a problem, and students can still use these and other devices to be distracted by social media in class.
ERO is recommending four things:
1.Keep the ‘Phones Away for the Day’ requirement – it is making a positive difference for students.
2.Increase compliance of secondary students by sharing with schools the approaches that work most. 
3.Increase parents’ awareness of the benefits of removing cell phones (and other digital distractions) and how they can help.
4.Consider further action to remove other digital distractions (e.g. smartwatches) and reduce the potential harm of social media at school – learning from the experience of other countries.
NOTES
From Term 2 2024, school boards must prohibit students from using or accessing cell phones during the school day. This includes break times, and off-site school activities or programmes. Schools need to allow exemptions in certain circumstances, including for health or learning support needs:  Education (School Boards) Regulations
2020 (LI 2020/193) (as at 01 October 2024) 22 Duty to prohibit the use or
access of mobile phones – New Zealand Legislation
Education Review Office (ERO) research draws on:
  • 10,700 survey responses from school leaders and teachers, board members, students, and parents and whānau, covering schools and students in Year 7 and above. 
  • Interviewing school leaders and teachers, board members, students, and parents and whānau through interviews and focus groups. 
  • National and international studies.
  • Analysis of Board Assurance Statements. 
  • Insights from ERO school reviews.
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Employment – Kāinga Ora staff get just 9 days to comment on job cuts proposal – PSA

Source: PSA

Kāinga Ora, the Government’s social housing agency, has given staff affected just nine days to comment on a change proposal to axe 10 jobs and let workers losing their jobs know in the week before Christmas.
Kāinga Ora released a change proposal to affected staff at 5pm on Tuesday to reduce the Ministerial services team by 10 roles from 22 roles to 12 roles. In May Kāinga Ora cut 620 roles.
Redundancy notices will be issued from Wednesday 17 December with the new structure taking effect from Monday 26 January.
Staff affected by the latest changes have been given only until Thursday 27 November to provide feedback, Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi National Secretary Fleur Fitzsimons says.
The Kāinga Ora change proposal was released to staff the day after the PSA and the Professional Firefighters Union initiated action in the Employment Relations Authority after Fire and Emergency New Zealand gave its non-firefighting staff just two weeks to consult on a 265-page proposal to cut 140 roles.
“The Kāinga Ora time frame is similarly riding roughshod over the rights of workers and treating consultation as a tick box exercise. It makes a mockery of one of the values espoused by Kāinga Ora – ‘Manaakitanga – Putting people first’,” Fitzsimons says.
“This rushed process is another example of the Government’s contempt for working New Zealanders, treating them as disposable commodities rather than people whose views deserve to be taken into account about decisions that will have a significant effect on their lives,” Fitzsimons says.
The proposal is to cut 12 roles in Kāinga Ora’s Ministerial Services team and create two new positions. The team manages core democratic functions such as Ministerial enquiries, Official Information Act requests and responses to Parliamentary Questions.
The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health care and community groups.
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Business price indexes: September 2025 quarter – Stats NZ information release


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Transporting New Zealand says timely delivery of port infrastructure essential for Cook Strait connection

Source: Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

National Road Freight Association Transporting New Zealand has welcomed the certainty provided by Minister Peter’s announcement on the Cook Strait ferry project, saying it will allow the Government to focus on the timely delivery of the supporting port infrastructure by 2029.
Transporting New Zealand Head of Policy and Advocacy Billy Clemens said that it was essential the landside infrastructure, including modifications to the existing Aratere berth in Wellington and a new dual-level linkspan in Picton are delivered before the new vessels arrived.
“Our road freight members want to see the party politics get parked, and a bipartisan focus on delivery”.
“The Cook Strait is an extension of SH1, so having a competitive connection with adequate capacity is essential to our road freight members and the national supply chain. Approximately $30 billion of freight crosses that Cook Strait each year, with Interislander capturing roughly 45% market share and Bluebridge on 55% (according to 2024 MoT estimates).”
“The Government’s focus needs to be avoiding the delays and cost blowouts that have plagued Project iReX and many other major transport and infrastructure developments around the country.”
“The Government’s decision to procure rail-enabled vessels, against the advice of the Government’s Ministerial Advisory Group, presents an additional risk of cost escalations, as the Ministry of Transport notedback in 2023. This risk will have to be closely monitored.”
“Ferry Holdings Limited, and the shareholding Ministers of Transport, Rail and Finance all need to be focussed on prompt delivery of the Cook Strait Ferry Replacement Work Programme. We are reassured to see Ferry Holdings has a clear statement of intent and performance indicators, and look forward to meeting with their CEO shortly.”
Clemens says that freight companies want to see Interislander and Bluebridge taking steps to ensure adequate freight capacity over the next four years, including prioritising time-sensitive freight over passenger transport where necessary.
“With only four ferries currently operating, Interislander and Bluebridge are going to have to carefully manage freight capacity, or we will see price hikes and costly delivery delays for businesses and consumers.” 
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Teen vaping crisis worsens, system ‘truly failed to protect them’, health organisation says

Source: Asthma and Respiratory Foundation

Vaping is far from under control, with new figures showing a worrying rise in use among teens.
The Asthma and Respiratory Foundation NZ warns that the latest Health Survey -showing daily vaping among 15-17-year-olds has climbed from 10.3 per cent to 13.6 per cent in a year – highlights a serious issue.
Foundation Chief Executive Ms Letitia Harding says this escalation raises serious questions about whether current measures are anywhere close to adequate.
“An increase like this doesn’t happen by accident.
“It tells us the protections in place simply aren’t enough.”
The survey also showed that vaping among 18-24-year-olds is also unacceptably high at 23 per cent, Ms Harding says.
These new figures echoed those from the Foundation’s latest nationwide youth survey – the 2024 ARFNZ/SPANZ/NZAIMS Vaping in New Zealand Youth Survey.
It found high vaping use among older secondary students.
In 2021, 17% of Year 12s and 13% of Year 13s reported vaping in the last seven days. In 2024, those figures have risen to 20% for Year 12s and a striking 26% for Year 13s.
Foundation Māori Community Liaison and youth vaping educator Ms Sharon Pihema says the new figures are a clear sign that things are still heading in the wrong direction.
“A rise from 10.3% to 13.6% daily vaping in just one year shows how easily these products are still reaching our teenagers.
“The fact is 15-17 year olds aren’t legally old enough to purchase vapes, so this big increase shows the system has truly failed to protect them,” she says.
“If access was genuinely under control, we wouldn’t be seeing increases like this.”
The lack of adequate resourcing for prevention and education is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, Ms Pihema says.
“The Foundation is doing everything it can with the capacity it has – all with no support from government.”
The Foundation has been running vaping education workshops in schools for years, Ms Pihema says.
“We even met with Associate Health Minister Casey Costello asking for financial support to run these workshops, but we are always turned down.
This year, the Foundation strengthened prevention through a new community Train-the-Trainer programme endorsed by the NZ College of Respiratory Nurses.
The initiative equips educators, youth workers and whānau advocates with the tools to teach rangatahi about the harms of vaping.
The Foundation wants to see the Government halt the establishment of further Specialist Vape Retailers (SVRs), ban the sale of vapes in general retailer stores, limit the nicotine content of all vape products to 20 mg/mL, and re-examine the prescription model.
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Health – Horrifying but Predictable: Māori Smoking Decrease Stalled After Protections Stripped Away

Source: Hapai Te Hauora

Hāpai Te Hauora is devastated by the latest New Zealand Health Survey, which shows Māori smoking progress has stalled for the first time in more than ten years. Māori leadership and tireless advocacy have saved countless lives, yet this year’s results show another barrier placed in front of that progress.
Only days after the sector gathered to honour the people who have carried the smokefree kaupapa for decades, today’s data tells a very different story.
“This doesn’t come as a surprise. Last week we stood together celebrating generations of advocates who fought to protect our people. Today we are met with data that feels like a slap in the face,” says Jacqui Harema, CEO of Hāpai Te Hauora.
The survey shows Māori daily smoking has increased from 14.8% to 15% (around 99,000 adults). This rise highlights worsening tobacco harm that is felt most sharply in poorer communities, where smoking rates remain higher and tobacco outlets are heavily concentrated. Māori women living in the poorest areas are now more than six times more likely to smoke daily than those in the wealthiest areas.
For Hāpai, the concern is not the small shift in numbers, but the fact that Māori smoking is no longer declining after a decade of progress.
“Tobacco still kills thousands every year in Aotearoa, and Māori bear the heaviest burden of that harm,” says Jasmine Graham, General Manager of Hāpai Te Hauora. “The issue here is the loss of momentum. Māori smoking has stopped falling. That tells us the environment around our whānau has become harder, not easier.”
Hāpai says the stall in progress did not happen by accident. It reflects the conditions Māori communities have been pushed into – shaped by recent political decisions, weakened protections, and growing commercial pressure from the tobacco industry. Aotearoa has also dropped from 2nd to 53rd in the global ranking for protection against tobacco industry interference, the largest fall recorded in recent years.
“This is what happens when policies prioritise profit over people,” says Graham. “When protections are removed and industry interests are given space to grow, Māori communities feel the impact first and feel it the hardest.”
The consequences of stalled progress are immediate and real: more preventable illness, more deaths caused by tobacco-related disease, more rangatahi exposed to nicotine, increased pressure on already stretched Māori health providers, and a greater risk of intergenerational harm becoming entrenched again.
Hāpai Te Hauora is calling for urgent, equity-focused action. This includes restoring proven smokefree protections – such as reducing the number of tobacco retailers and cutting nicotine levels in cigarettes so they are no longer addictive. Hāpai is also calling for tobacco to be removed from dairies, a major reduction in tobacco and vape retailers in poorer areas and raising the legal purchase age to at least 20.
Finally, Hāpai te Hauora says long-term, stable funding for Māori-led solutions is essential to rebuild momentum.
“Our communities and services on the ground have done everything asked of them,” says Harema. “The halt in Māori smoking progress is a warning sign that cannot be ignored. It shows that when protections are removed, Māori carry the heaviest consequences. This can still be a turning point – but only if decision-makers centre Māori health, restore strong protections, and invest in solutions that already work for our communities.”
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Amnesty International agrees with Minister Stanford on her comment re social media

Source: Amnesty International Aotearoa New Zealand


19 November 2025 – As reported by Radio New Zealand on 18 November at the handover of the B416 petition at Parliament, Education Minister Erica Stanford said, “Social media companies love bans, because they know that kids will get around the bans and continue using it anyway, and they don't have to change their behaviour. What we're working on is how do we make social media companies change their behaviours?”
In response, Amnesty International Aotearoa New Zealand’s Executive Director, Jacqui Dillon, said:
“It’s not something that we say every day, but Amnesty International agrees with Minister Stanford here. We tautoko the focus on making social media companies change their behaviours.
“Tech giants and their algorithm-driven, surveillance-based business model have created toxic digital environments that many of us find ourselves in. It’s not human, and it’s not right.
“That’s why Amnesty International has joined forces with Tahono Trust, an organisation that supports and delivers social cohesion, on the No Harmware campaign. We all need more inclusive and safer online platforms.
“We fully support Minister Stanford in being bold.
“A focus on tech companies is important because we need changes in how these systems are designed. There must be requirements for transparency and accountability. That’s the way to make these platforms safer for everyone, just as we expect for other products we use.”
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Employment and Law – New law unfairly punishes civilian Defence workers – PSA

Source: PSA

Civilian Defence workers are being penalised by the Government for daring to ask for more than a 0% pay rise by legislation passed by Parliament today, the PSA says.
The Defence (Workforce) Amendment Bill makes it easier for the Minister of Defence to order military personnel to do the work of New Zealand Defence Force civilians workers taking strike action.
In November 2024, Defence Minister Judith Collins took the unusual step of instructing the armed forces to use military staff to do the work of civilian staff who were to strike in response to a 0% pay offer.
Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi National Secretary Fleur Fitzsimons says the new law makes it too easy for the Government to use armed force staff to undercut legal, justified strikes.
“The new law severely loosens democratic Parliamentary oversight of what should be extraordinary powers to have the military intervene in the legitimate actions of New Zealand workers.
“The problem the Government is trying to fix is entirely of its own making. It made an insulting and dismissive pay offer of 0% to civilian Defence workers because it completely undervalued the work they did.
“It’s only when the civilian staff went on strike that the Minister woke up and realised how critical they were to New Zealand’s defence and security.
“Rather than this disturbing law change the Minister should focus on ensuring the value of the civilian Defence workers is reflected in pay offers that are made to them,” Fitzsimons says.
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The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health care and community groups.