MIDDLEMORE HOSPITAL RECEIVES STATE-OF-THE-ART NEONATAL COTS FROM RAPID RELIEF TEAM

Source: Rapid Relief Team NZ

The Rapid Relief Team (RRT) has donated 10 state-of-the-art neonatal cots to Middlemore Hospital, providing a significant boost for one of the country’s busiest neonatal units.

The new cots will provide critical support to the unit, which frequently operates at or beyond its capacity. The donation will help ensure more babies receive the specialist care they need while easing pressure on the service.

The new ‘Tom 2’ cots are replacing equipment that is over 30 years old.

Margi Mellsop, CEO of the Middlemore Foundation, said the Foundation was delighted with the donation.

“We are so thrilled that RRT have been able to help us with 10 of these incredible cots, which are replacing cots that are over 30 years old and will go immediately to our medical and surgical wards,” Ms. Mellsop said.

“This has also been backed by the wider generosity of the whole campaign – donors like Hynds, Kelliher, Rotary and our general donors have contributed to the additional costs of getting these cots installed and ready for our tamariki.”

RRT Director, Jon Renton, said the donation was an example of RRT providing tangible support to make a positive difference in the lives of those in need.

“RRT is honoured to hand over these 10 neonatal cots for Middlemore Hospital. This neonatal unit is one of the busiest in the country, and these much-needed cots represent the kind of tangible, frontline support that RRT, the charitable arm of the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church, is all about.”

“We have enormous respect for the dedicated staff at Middlemore. They work tirelessly to care for people in real moments of need. Many of our own volunteers and their families have been cared for at Middlemore Hospital, so this donation is particularly close to our hearts.”

“We also want to thank our generous donors from the National Assistance Fund whose support has helped make this happen.”

RRT supports communities across New Zealand through emergency relief, support for frontline workers and helping those facing hardship. For further information about RRT, visit www.rrtglobal.org.

Supermarket policies will fail if competition continues on wages

Source: Workers First Union

Workers First, the union for supermarket workers, says that all four policy suites announced by political parties in recent weeks will fail to solve the duopoly’s excess profitability or market dominance without addressing the fundamental competitive “zero-sum” game that remains on wages and conditions in the industry.

Rudd Hughes, Workers First Deputy Secretary, said that in the absence of a sectoral bargaining mechanism like a Fair Pay Agreement, the most meaningful competition between Foodstuffs (Pak’nSave and New World), Woolworths and any new entrant to the market is on wages, not prices.

“The policies announced by National and NZ First will not work because they overstate the effect of market competition and understate the role that low wages play in fuelling the duopoly’s dominance,” said Mr Hughes.

“Wages are a significant spend for supermarkets, and keeping most workers as close to minimum wage as possible is a big factor in enjoying a high margin on their retail price.”

“If companies can continue to compete on wages and conditions but not the price of goods or market share, it will be a race to the bottom to maintain the current margins, and workers are the ones who will be made to pay for the rest of us to enjoy cheaper prices.”

“Changing who owns which bits of Foodstuffs does nothing to solve the issue of excess profitability. Even introducing an Aldi or a Tesco to the mix wouldn’t solve the fundamental problem that the duopoly’s margins are made from underpaying and understaffing their workforce.”

Mr Hughes noted that neither the National nor NZ First policy releases appeared to consider the effect of splitting Foodstuffs on the supermarket workforce or their wages.

“Labour’s price gouging ban could succeed in combination with a Fair Pay Agreement for supermarket workers, but not without a floor on wages and safety expectations, or workers will pay to keep the current margins alive,” said Mr Hughes.

“The Greens’ KiwiMart proposal has some merit, but only if its affordability mandate comes with a genuine sectoral floor on pay and conditions, modelled on something like Australia’s Fair Work Commission modern awards system. Without that, a state-owned supermarket chain becomes just another competitor with the same incentive to beat its rivals on wages.”

Mr Hughes said the union was currently in bargaining with Woolworths and several Foodstuffs stores around the country and the message from supermarket bosses was the same: “They want wages locked in low for two to three years, beneficial conditions cut from collective agreements, and redundancies, in many cases.”

“This is how they operate during what we’re supposed to pretend is a ‘tough time’ for them economically.”

Woolworths New Zealand’s profit rose 8.8% to $163 million in the year to June 2026, with half-year earnings up more than 22%. Foodstuffs is doing even better: the Commerce Commission’s latest Annual Grocery Report found both the North Island and South Island operations rank among the most profitable supermarket businesses in the developed world, ahead of Woolworths Australia, Coles, Walmart and Tesco, with duopoly margins holding steady.

Workers First’s recent report on a survey of more than 2,400 supermarket workers revealed that 59 percent had experienced customer abuse or harassment in the past two years, and workers in permanently understaffed stores were more than twice as likely to report a safety incident as those in well-staffed ones.

“It’s a really tough job and the pay supermarket workers get does not reflect the level of danger or difficulty that their jobs entail,” said Mr Hughes.

“We estimate that more than half of Pak’nSaves and New Worlds are paying minimum wage or just above it, so if you see slightly lower prices on some goods in some of those stores, the workers were the ones who paid for them.”

Mr Hughes added that while the ACT Party did not appear to have released any specific policy on supermarkets, their idea of a three-year minimum wage freeze and a new 60% training wage for under 20s were “positively dystopian”.

“I suppose in a way that ACT are the only party who have considered the workforce in this equation and pondered how an employer could extract even more labour for their dollar,” said Mr Hughes.

“Supermarkets would likely be happy to take them up on the offer – but stopping this sort of exploitation is the reason unions like ours exist.”

Workers First is calling on all parties to commit to sectoral bargaining that sets a genuine floor across the grocery sector, taking wages out of competition entirely so supermarkets are left to compete on the things that should actually determine who wins: efficiency, service and genuine value.

Founding Cabinet Minister says National’s Planned Kiwibank Sell-Off Is Plunder of Public Assets

Source: Alliance Party

Thursday 17 September 2026

The Alliance Party has condemned the National-led Government’s moves toward the partial privatization of Kiwibank, calling the plan a brazen sell-off of public wealth for private profit.

Former Alliance Cabinet Minister and 2026 Alliance Party political adviser Hon. Matt Robson was one of four Alliance ministers who originally secured the creation of the bank during the fifth Labour-Alliance coalition Government.

Matt Robson says Kiwibank was established to serve the public good, not financial speculators.

“Kiwibank was established under the leadership of the late Jim Anderton to give New Zealanders a permanent asset to underpin long-term investment for the public good, and provide a genuine Kiwi-owned alternative to the Australian-owned banking cartel.”

“Now National is preparing to hand Kiwibank over to private investors for private profit. This is nothing more than old-fashioned plunder of the public silver – there is nothing new under the sun,” says Matt Robson.

The Alliance Party confirmed that defending Kiwibank and halting all privatization will be a central pillar of its 2026 election campaign.

Under its Public Ownership and Economic Democracy platform, the Alliance opposes any dilution of Crown ownership and instead advocates for expanding public banking capability.

Matt Robson also challenged the Labour Party to take a firm stand.

“Labour previously campaigned on the great success of a publicly owned Kiwibank. They must now state unequivocally where they stand and join us in opposing any planned sale or dilution of this vital state asset.”

Editorial Note – About Hon. Matt Robson

The Hon. Matt Robson is a former MP for the Alliance and Progressive parties, and was a Cabinet minister in the 1999–2002 Labour–Alliance coalition government. Matt is co-producer of the 2026 documentary Last Man Standing, on the life and times of Jim Anderton, screening in New Zealand cinemas. Matt works as an immigration lawyer in Auckland and is actively supporting the relaunched Alliance Party.

GDP resilience points to improving outlook for business

Source: Employers and Manufacturers Association

The EMA (Employers and Manufacturers Association) says today’s GDP figures, showing 0.2% growth in the June quarter, indicate the economic recovery remains on track despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East during the quarter.

“When you consider the massive spike in petrol and diesel prices in April, it’s positive that the economy grew at all during the quarter,” says EMA Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald.

“Annual GDP growth for the year ended June 2026 was 1.7%, which is a solid result given the pressures businesses have faced over the past 12 months.

“The June quarter was particularly testing, with energy costs weighing on business confidence. Against that backdrop, even modest growth demonstrates a level of resilience that can’t be overlooked.”

McDonald says many businesses developed contingency plans amid concerns about potential fuel shortages and supply chain disruption following developments in the Middle East.

“There was genuine concern across the business community about how severe the impacts might be. While prices rose sharply and continue to place pressure on businesses, the worst-case scenarios did not eventuate.

“The Government provided reassurance about fuel availability and managed the situation effectively. This helped businesses avoid widespread disruption and supported a faster-than-expected recovery in confidence.”

Recent inflation data shows fuel costs adding to existing pressures and creating challenges for firms already operating on tight margins. Inflation has risen to 4.1%, driven in part by a 71% increase in diesel prices and a 27% increase in petrol prices. The fact that the economy continued to grow highlights the recovery is coming.

McDonald said business feedback from the EMA’s recent regional briefing round suggests a more optimistic outlook is emerging.

“While many businesses are telling us it’s still tough, there is increasing evidence that firms are beginning to look ahead with greater confidence than they were six months ago.”

“Much of the current strength is being driven by the success of our primary industries, but we’re also seeing a growing strength in the performance of the manufacturing sector.

“We’ve now seen growth in three successive quarters, albeit cautious growth. Businesses now need certainty, stability and confidence for growth to continue and to start hiring and investing.”

One of New Zealand’s longer-term economic challenges remains ensuring workers have the skills required by employers, McDonald says.

“We need to remain focused on preparing young people for work and helping more New Zealanders successfully enter the workforce.”

“We also need to think about how we continue upskilling and retraining workers throughout their careers. Strong economic growth ultimately depends on having the skilled workforce businesses need to succeed.”

The EMA expects economic conditions during the September quarter to provide a clearer picture of the strength of the recovery and remains cautiously optimistic about the outlook for growth over the coming year.

2300 more hospital nurses? Yeah, nah Nicola Willis

Source: New Zealand Nurses Organisation

Claims by National deputy leader Nicola Willis that 2300 more hospital nurses will be hired by the end of this year have been revealed by Te Whatu Ora as more smoke and mirrors on nursing numbers from the Government, NZNO says.

Nicola Willis told RNZ yesterday that 2300 nurses are being recruited “right now” and would be working in hospitals by Christmas.

However, Tōpūtanga Tapuhi Kaitiaki o Aotearoa NZNO President Anne Daniels says the numbers don’t stack up.

Te Whatu Ora chief nurse Nadine Gray told RNZ today that just over 300 nurses have been recently hired and are going through the recruitment process and 1800 graduates will be hired. Te Whatu Ora is currently advertising for another 300 odd nursing roles

“National is trying to dress business up as usual recruitment as a success story. With a current workforce to March 2026 of 29,458 FTE nursing positions, this is just replacing attrition, not growing the workforce. Nursing numbers have actually fallen by 120 FTE since March 2025.

“Te Whatu Ora has had a recruitment freeze. The Government has been keeping 1,300 nursing roles vacant over the past two years as a deliberate tactic to save millions of dollars,” Anne Daniels says.

“Up to 90% of nursing graduates used to be hired in our hospitals but despite these vacancies, just 45% of registered nursing graduates were matched to supported-entry roles at Te Whatu Ora after mid-year final exams.

“The Government has promised to hire 1800 graduates before the end of the government financial year, which is 30 June 2027. Is Te Whatu Ora now promising to move this recruitment forward?

“National also continually claims to have hired 2,100 more nurses, but we now know just 54 new nursing FTE has been added to the hospitals since they came to office.

“Nicola Willis says nurse retention is important and legislated culturally-safe nurse to patient ratios will make that happen.”

Anne Daniels says NZNO welcomes Labour’s policy to hire all nursing graduates, but it needs to turn around the third of students who drop out of training before completing their studies.

“Nursing students are living in cars and tents on their 12-week final placement. They are unable to support themselves for the three months they are doing full-time shift work and often away from their hometown and whānau support.

“If Labour is serious about helping new nurses, they need to pay them for this placement period, as nursing students in Australia are,” Anne Daniels says.

Passing Shower or Gathering Storm? Rising Bond Yield Implications for Financial Institutions

Source: Morningstar DBRS

September 8, 2026

Overview

For financial institutions, the implications of rising global bond yields are mixed. Firstly, banks with capital markets businesses are clear winners as they benefit from robust underwriting and trading results. Typically, higher yields would slow debt issuance, but hyperscalers and others appear to be less price sensitive, contributing to very high levels of issuance. 

Conversely, noninvestment-grade financial institutions issuers will likely see higher spreads and an increase in overall funding costs, as investors can be more selective while earning an attractive yield on less risky fixed income securities. 

Higher rates are also likely to slow originations as the cost of borrowing increases, which may also pressure asset quality, especially for borrowers with floating-rate loans. Subsequently, earnings will be pressured by lower originations, increased credit costs, and a higher cost of funds. 

Bank and insurance fixed income securities portfolios will also suffer from unrealized losses, whose effects on earnings and capital can, however, be offset by proper asset-liability matching or interest rate hedging in the short to medium term. Moreover, higher yields will also allow banks and insurers to reinvest their maturing securities at better yields going forward. While there will clearly be some winners and losers, we expect the vast majority of our financial institutions coverage universe to remain resilient and maintain credit profiles commensurate with their current credit ratings.

Key Highlights

  • Clear winners are those banks with capital markets businesses that are benefiting from robust underwriting and trading results.
  • Conversely, non-investment grade financial institutions issuers will likely see higher spreads and overall funding costs, as investors can be more selective while already earning a nice yield on less risky fixed income securities.
  • While there will clearly be some winners and losers, we expect the vast majority of our financial institutions coverage universe to remain resilient and maintain credit profiles commensurate with their current credit ratings.

Exhibit 1: 10-Year Government Bond Yields 2026 Year to Date

Series: U.S.; Germany; United Kingdom; France; Japan.

Source: Morningstar, Inc.

Inflation Expectations and Plenty of Debt Financing Needs Result in Rising Yields

The Iran conflict has added inflationary fears over higher rates for longer. Meanwhile, global debt issuance has grown materially, which is also causing yields to rise. According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), U.S. corporate debt issuance year-to-date through July 2026 was $1,681.0 billion, an increase of 26.9% year over year, with 2025 being a higher-than-average issuance year to begin with. Including treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, municipals, agency, and asset-backed securities, this total jumps to $7,400.6 billion, an increase of 10.8% (see Exhibit 2). With higher costs, businesses typically pull back on issuance. However, hyperscalers have thus far proven somewhat insensitive to yields as they race to be leaders in artificial intelligence. Issuance is likely to stay elevated for a longer period of time—especially if we layer in other needs for investment such as military spending—with the potential to continue putting upward pressure on yields.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Fixed-Income Securities Issuance (USD billions)

Category H1 2025 H1 2026
U.S. Corporates 1,228.8 1,681.0
U.S. Fixed Income 6,601.3 7,400.6

Source: SIFMA.

Financial Institutions Asset Quality Performing Better Than Expected

Financial institutions globally continue to demonstrate resiliency despite inflation, trade wars, and heightened geopolitical risk. While some jurisdictions have seen increasing levels of delinquencies, nonperforming loans, and net charge-offs, they generally remain very manageable. Overall, asset quality performance has held up better than we anticipated.

Higher interest rates do affect consumers and businesses, especially those with floating-rate loans. Real estate valuations typically suffer as rates increase, but commercial real estate appears to have stabilized, with minimal issues, and home values in many geographies are stable to increasing. Leveraged corporates are most susceptible to higher rates, as well as lower-income households. Additionally, higher rates will likely also subdue demand for loans, especially residential real estate. Nonetheless, we currently view banks globally as adequately reserved with sound capital if their economies do deteriorate. Similarly, most insurance and non-bank financials continue to manage their balance sheet fundamentals appropriately in the current operating environment.

The Impact on Bond Portfolios of Financial Institutions

Higher yields mean lower prices for bonds, which will lead to higher unrealized losses in bond portfolios. Insurers, which often use fixed-income assets to match future claims and benefits cash flows, typically have the largest fixed-income securities portfolios as a percentage of assets, followed by banks. We note that many banks have reduced exposures in recent years by repositioning their portfolios, especially in the U.S.

Since financial institutions typically have some level of interest rate hedges in place, it is hard to generalize the potential impacts. However, higher yields and interest rates did show some weakness in interest rate management in 2023 when there were several high-profile U.S. regional bank failures. Most banks in our coverage universe, however, do incorporate unrealized losses on securities into their capital ratios. On the positive side, financial institutions can reinvest maturing securities into higher yielding ones, as well as put new premiums to work into higher yielding assets that otherwise would have similar risk profiles.

Leverage and Asset Values

Higher interest rates typically make fixed income securities look more attractive relative to stocks, but stocks have remained at near-record highs. Strong earnings growth has been supportive, but there have been plenty of discussions in the media about a potential bubble. Regardless, investors remain exuberant with markets at or near all-time highs, as evidenced by near-record levels of leverage. The Financial Regulatory Authority reported margin balances of $1.417 trillion at the end of July 2026. As a cautionary note, we believe margin calls can lead to heavy forced selling exacerbating losses, as seen recently with Situational Awareness and the South Korean stock market.

Lastly, the wealth and asset management businesses of financial institutions globally have benefitted from rising global markets. If it holds true that higher yields eventually lead to a correction, we expect earnings for these business lines would be hit from lower fees.

Related Research

  • Global P&C Reinsurers H1 2026: Solid Earnings Driven by Lower Cat Losses and Resilient Investment Income, August 13, 2026.
  • Key Takeaways from European Banks’ Q2 2026 Earnings Season, August 10, 2026.
  • U.S. Banks Deliver Another Strong Quarter in Q2 2026 as Credit Fundamentals Remain Resilient, August 4, 2026.
  • European Banking Midyear Outlook: Middle East Conflict Not Derailing Positive Earnings Dynamics, July 20, 2026.
  • Finance Company Debt Issuance Holds Steady in H1 2026 Despite Turbulent Environment, July 16, 2026.
  • Japanese Mega Banks’ Record F2025 Earnings Reflect a Tailwind from Rising Domestic Rates, July 12, 2026.
  • Major Australia Banks H1 2026 Results: Strong Fundamentals Amid Slower Growth and Heightened Uncertainty, July 7, 2026.
  • 2026 U.S. Bank Federal Reserve Stress Test Results: Key Takeaways, June 26, 2026.
  • Middle East Conflict is Leading to Higher Provisions for Some Global Banks, June 2, 2026.
  • Japanese Life Insurers are Managing Mark-to-Market Losses on Bonds While Showcasing Earnings Resilience, May 10, 2026.
  • Geopolitical Shock in the Gulf Raises Underwriting Volatility Across Insurance Lines, March 2, 2026.

About Morningstar DBRS

Morningstar DBRS is a leading provider of independent credit rating services and opinions for corporate and sovereign entities, financial institutions, and project and structured finance instruments globally. Rating more than 4,500 issuers and 68,000 securities, we are one of the top four credit rating agencies in the world and a market leader in Canada, the U.S., and Europe in multiple asset classes.

For 50 years, Morningstar DBRS has been committed to bringing greater transparency and a much-needed diversity of opinion in the credit rating industry. Our nimble approach combined with Morningstar’s global scale and resources enable us to respond to customers’ needs in their local markets while also empowering investor success worldwide. Learn more at dbrs.morningstar.com.

The Morningstar DBRS group of companies consists of DBRS, Inc. (Delaware, U.S.) (NRSRO, DRO affiliate); DBRS Limited (Ontario, Canada) (DRO, NRSRO affiliate); DBRS Ratings GmbH (Frankfurt, Germany) (EU CRA, NRSRO affiliate, DRO affiliate); DBRS Ratings Limited (England and Wales) (UK CRA, NRSRO affiliate, DRO affiliate); and DBRS Ratings Pty Limited (Australia) (AFSL No. 569400). DBRS Ratings Pty Limited holds an Australian financial services license under the Australian Corporations Act 2001 to only provide credit ratings to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Act. For more information on regulatory registrations, recognitions, and approvals of the Morningstar DBRS group of companies, please see: regulatory registrations, recognitions, and approvals.

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The Morningstar DBRS group of companies are wholly owned subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc.

ASB raises select term deposit rates

Source: ASB

17 September 2026

ASB has today made increases to its 12-month, 24-month and 5-year term deposit rates. Lending rates remain unchanged.

  • 12-month Term Deposit increasing 10 bps to 4.00%
  • 24-month Term Deposit increasing 10 bps to 4.50%
  • 5-year Term Deposit increasing 25 bps to 5.00%

ASB regularly reviews its interest rates to reflect market conditions and ensure it continues to offer competitive saving and borrowing options for customers.

The updated rates will be available from today.

GDP increases 0.2 percent in the June 2026 quarter – Gross domestic product: June 2026 quarter – Stats NZ news story and information release

Source: Statistics New Zealand

GDP increases 0.2 percent in the June 2026 quarter – news story

17 September 2026

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2 percent in the June 2026 quarter, following a 0.9 percent increase in the March 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

“The 0.2 percent growth in economic activity in the June 2026 quarter reflects mixed results, with increases in nine out of 16 industries,” general manager and macroeconomic spokesperson Jason Attewell said.

Construction up 2.7 percent in the quarter
Construction was the largest upward contributor to the overall increase in GDP, up 2.7 percent in the quarter. This was the largest increase in construction activity since the June 2023 quarter.

“An increase in residential building activity contributed to the overall growth in the construction industry in the June 2026 quarter,” Attewell said.

Visit Statistics New Zealand website to read the full news story and information release and to download CSV files:

Advocacy – PFNZ calls on New Zealand trade unions to follow UK movement and take action for Palestine

Source: Palestine Forum of New Zealand

Palestine Forum of New Zealand (PFNZ) is calling on the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi (NZCTU) to follow the lead of the UK trade union movement and take meaningful action in support of Palestinian rights.

The call follows a significant decision by the UK's Trades Union Congress (TUC), representing more than 5.3 million workers, which has unanimously backed a motion supporting the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement.

The motion calls for action to oppose what it describes as the catastrophic destruction of Gaza and Israeli settler violence in the occupied West Bank. It includes calls for an end to military cooperation and arms deals with Israel, wide-ranging sanctions, divestment from companies complicit in violations of international law, and support for trade union-led workplace action.

PFNZ believes the New Zealand trade union movement should now have the same conversation.

“New Zealand workers and trade unions have a long history of standing up for justice, human rights and workers' rights internationally,” said Maher Nazzal, Founder and Spokesperson of Palestine Forum of New Zealand.

“The UK trade union movement has taken a clear position that solidarity with Palestinian workers cannot stop at statements. It is calling for collective action against complicity.

“We are asking NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi to consider what meaningful action New Zealand's trade union movement can take.

“This is not about asking one organisation to speak for everyone. It is about opening a serious conversation within the New Zealand labour movement about what solidarity with Palestinian workers and the Palestinian people should look like in practice.”

PFNZ is calling on NZCTU to:

  • publicly consider and support Palestinian-led BDS initiatives;
  • review trade union investments, procurement and relationships to identify links with companies involved in or benefiting from violations of Palestinian rights;
  • support measures to end military and economic complicity with violations of international law;
  • strengthen solidarity with Palestinian trade unions and workers;
  • support workplace and union-led initiatives for Palestinian rights; and
  • raise these issues with the New Zealand Government, including the need for stronger action concerning the occupation, settlements and settler violence.

New Zealand has already joined international partners in sanctions targeting individuals and entities involved in financing and enabling settler violence in the occupied West Bank.

PFNZ says the question now is whether New Zealand's civil society and trade union movements are prepared to build on that position.

“Workers' solidarity has always crossed borders,” Nazzal said.

“Palestinian workers and trade unionists are part of the global labour movement. When workers elsewhere face injustice, trade unions have historically understood that solidarity means more than words.

“We encourage NZCTU to engage with its affiliated unions, Palestinian representatives and civil society organisations and consider following the example now being set by the UK trade union movement.

The UK has shown that trade unions can act collectively. We are asking New Zealand's trade union movement to consider doing the same.”

Property Market – NZ buyer breakdown: Which groups are behind the sales volume decline?

Source: Cotality

In this Pulse article, Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson looks at the actual purchase figures that underpin the normal Buyer Classification % market shares. It shows that:

  • The key group behind the overall drop in sales volumes this year has been movers, with many would-be relocating owner occupiers just choosing to stay put instead
  • Debt-backed investors have also reduced their activity a little, but haven’t abandoned the market either, despite some challenges.
  • First home buyers are genuinely a strong presence, by % share or number of deals – even under the current lower income caps for First Home Loans.

A switch to number of deals

Typically we use our Cotality Buyer Classification framework to look at market shares for each different group, with first home buyers (FHBs) for example hitting a new monthly record high of 29% of activity in August. By contrast, movers (i.e. relocating owner-occupiers) have recently been more cautious than usual, while mortgaged multiple property owners also dipped back again in August, after a small bounce up in June and July.

Of course, market shares must always add up to 100% and sometimes one group can see their percentage figure go up just because other purchasers have pulled back a bit in terms of raw numbers. As such, this article switches the focus to look at the numbers of transactions taking place which underpin our usual market share analysis.

Movers are where the weakness lies

After a consistent run of growth from mid-2023 to late last year, overall property sales volumes have shown a year-on-year decline each month so far in 2026. This has resulted in the annual running total dropping from 91,973 in December to 89,043 now (as at August).

The group that’s made the largest contribution to the slowdown has been movers – or relocating owner-occupiers – with their annual running deal total dropping from 25,044 in December to 23,398 now. Granted, this isn’t a huge collapse, but it does show a degree of caution.

Now, it’s important to note that movers can only relocate if there’s another property to buy. But a lack of available listings is clearly not an issue at the moment. Instead, this is buyer caution, against a backdrop of economic uncertainty – with the unemployment rate above average and job security somewhat diminished, movers are simply tending to stay where they are more often than usual, rather than trade up (or down).

A more pronounced comeback by movers may not be on the cards for a while yet, with economic growth not really anticipated to strengthen on a sustained basis until perhaps the second half of next year.

Multiple property owners haven’t abandoned the market

Turning to mortgaged multiple property owners, including ‘Mum and Dad’ investors – despite the challenges they currently face, such as subdued rental growth, higher operating costs, and political uncertainty (e.g. possible capital gains tax in 2027), it’s worth noting there are still quite a few of them out there. The debt-backed investors have made almost 20,800 purchases in the past 12 months, with cash MPOs taking around 9,400*. These totals have also dropped recently, but not as much as the fall for movers.

This is important, because although first home buyers are strong at the moment (and hence not needing as many rental properties), there is always a structural need or want for rental accommodation, and the government cannot cater for all or much of that.

First home buyers are showing genuine strength

And just to touch on first home buyers briefly, this group has already been getting a lot of attention lately, and for good reason – with their market share rising because they’re simply doing more deals. Over the past 12 months they’ve purchased around 24,950 properties, up from a cyclical low of 14,523 in early 2023. To be fair, the number of FHBs has been slightly higher at certain points in the past – such as the boom in 2021 and the pre-GFC period in 2006-07 – but the latest figures are still pretty impressive against a backdrop of economic uncertainty.

As we’ve noted many times before, they have several factors in their favour – including reduced property values (partly reflecting an abundance of listings/choice available on the market), lower mortgage rates than at the peak, access to KiwiSaver for at least part of the deposit, and really taking advantage of the banks’ allowances for low-deposit lending under the RBNZ’s LVR rules.

Of course, FHBs don’t sell anything, so where is the property coming from for them to buy? Sources here include new-builds (which are plentiful at the moment), investors reducing their portfolios, and existing owner-occupiers who are leaving the market.