Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

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EMA – Government energy reforms bring little short-term relief for Kiwi businesses

Source: EMA

The EMA says the government’s response to today’s Frontier Economics report announcement on the electricity market was almost predictably underwhelming, given a number of recommendations in the report were never likely to go ahead.
The government has rejected eight of the 10 recommendations from the much anticipated and delayed release of the report, commissioned in the wake of the significant price spikes in electricity pricing during last winter.
“Options such as selling off the remainder of the government’s share in the gentailers and then investing, owning and running a ThermalCo (combining coal, diesel and gas assets), to provide the firming options to back new wind and solar generation, were never likely to fly,” says EMA Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald.
“Nor was it likely to force the 29 electricity distribution companies to amalgamate into five entities (Three Waters anyone?), although some voluntary consolidation in that sector is often raised but yet to materialise.
“Renewed interest in a liquified natural gas import terminal will provide some relief, if it gets off the ground, but that requires infrastructure investment in a new import terminal and the landed gas will likely be nearly twice the price of what it is now.
“However, possibly providing some government investment or incentives to the existing generators, to provide thermal backing generation investment (most likely diesel and coal in the shorter term), may help underpin and back greater supply of renewables such as wind and solar.
“The theory behind deep-bore geothermal supply sounds very promising, and we should get on with that, but new hydro generation, another renewable option, seems to have been ruled out as too environmentally difficult.”
McDonald says, longer term, the government and the generation sector were already taking steps to address a current generation market that sees the supply v demand equation kept right on the margin, with prices set by the most expensive generation option – Huntly coal.
“That’s one reason for looking at the regulatory regime, also included in the Frontier Report but rejected by government. Consolidating the roles of the Electricity Authority (EA), the gas industry regulator and the involvement of the Commerce Commission in the market could have helped reorient the market dynamics.
“Under the current market settings, we’ve gone from attracting international business with low electricity costs to de-industrialisation and the closure of our own businesses as a result of higher domestic electricity pricing. Internationally, our pricing is reasonable but that’s no help to local businesses experiencing price shocks of 30%, 50% or more, as they seek to renew supply contracts.
“Industry moves to shore up coal supply and keep the ageing Rankine engines on stream at Huntly for another 10 years provides some certainty around ongoing thermal (coal) backing for new renewable supply.
“Elsewhere, the fast-track consenting regime, which probably needs to move faster, will bring more renewables such as solar and wind on-stream. Meanwhile, continually improving battery technology provides better storage for those renewables when there’s no wind or little sun.
“The fast-track regime also needs to apply to connecting new generation to the Transpower-operated national grid and the new RMA is also addressing connection issues. Transpower needs to be more efficient and faster at providing new grid exit points to better connect new generation to growing demand centres.
“At least one new gas find is being brought on-stream, and predictions are a major gas user will exit the market in the next 12 months freeing up more supply. Also, at least one new gas exploration company has applied for access to potential gas reserves for drilling, with another possibly having a closer look.
“The short-sighted ban on gas exploration, without a fully prepared transition plan, continues to bite industry when many other jurisdictions are using gas as the transition fuel of choice.
“New Zealand’s choices seem to be either more coal or diesel, with the opposition stubbornly clinging onto reintroducing the ban if re-elected. This continues to have a cooling effect on gas exploration. It will take time to bring on new supply, if found. But if you don’t look, you certainly won’t find any new gas.”
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Greenpeace – Luxon’s Trump-like energy policy heads down a fossil fuel dead end

Source: Greenpeace

The energy policy initiatives announced by the Luxon Government today are a desperate attempt to revive fossil fuels, which have spectacularly failed to provide New Zealand with cheap or reliable energy, and which are destroying the climate.
The Luxon Government today announced its long awaited energy initiatives, which included Government subsidies for a fossil gas (LNG) import facility, subsidies for new fossil fuel generation, and re-announced subsidies for fossil fuel exploration.
“While China and much of the world embraces low cost solar and wind energy, Luxon and Trump are doubling down on government subsidised ‘drill baby drill’ policies to support fossil fuel companies,” says Greenpeace Aotearoa Executive Director Dr Russel Norman.
“New Zealanders will pay the price for Luxon’s Trumpian energy policy with higher electricity bills, less energy security, higher taxes, and more climate pollution.
“We have the opportunity to embrace cheaper renewable generation with low carbon emissions. Generating our own energy from renewables is not only good for the climate, it is also necessary to save our economy from a wave of deindustrialisation driven by high priced fossil fuel energy.
“Fossil fuel dependence is expensive, with the gas industry’s own study finding LNG-fuelled electricity costs more than renewables, and it locks us into endlessly paying for more imported fossil fuels with volatile prices. And of course it would take years if it was ever built.
“The Luxon Government has systematically undermined New Zealand’s transition away from unreliable, expensive fossil gas. It abandoned the NZ Battery Project designed to provide long term storage and security to our energy system. It closed the Government Investment in Decarbonisation Industry fund which was helping industry cut its fossil gas use. It stopped work on the Gas Transition Plan which was specifically designed to move on from fossil gas. And it blocked huge offshore wind generation by fast tracking seabed mining.
“The decision to give $200m in government subsidies for more gas exploration, while weakening the laws regulating end-of-life decommissioning costs for oil fields, are subsidies to oil and gas companies. These subsidies will cost New Zealanders dearly.
“Luxon’s War on Nature is not only terrible for the planet, it is expensive. Greenpeace will continue to defend nature – bring on the sun!”
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Northland News – Consents for three experimental ‘ocean gardens’ granted

Source: Northland Regional Council

Resource consent has been granted for three experimental Northland ‘ocean gardens’ that will be used for research that ultimately aims to feed whanau and repopulate local fish and seafood stocks.
Applicants NgātiWai Ki Whangaruru Whenua Topu Trust, Kaingahoa Marae and the Otetao Reti Marae applied as a group to the Northland Regional Council for each to use one hectare of marine space to undertake non-commercial, marae-based aquaculture activities.
The council processed the non-notified applications for the initiatives dubbed ‘māra moana’ (ocean gardens) together and consents were granted today (subs: Wednesday 01 October) for a term of a 35-years.
One of the māra moana is proposed for Whapukapirau Bay in the outer Bay of Islands and is associated with the Kaingahoa Marae (Patukeha), another is proposed for Bland Bay, associated with NgātiWai Ki Whangaruru Whenua Topu Trust (Ngātiwai), while a third at Kauri Point in the Whangaruru Harbour is associated with the Otetao Reti Marae (Ngātiwai).
The aquaculture structures initially proposed for the māra moana are similar to conventional mussel farming backbone lines that will be secured in place with two-ton concrete mooring blocks. The backbones will have two surface lines separated by mussel buoys at regular intervals.
“These backbone longlines will act as a base structure to attach and support cultivation ropes and various equipment for research and spat collecting and grow out of mahinga kai species which may include various gastropod, bivalve crustacean and seaweed species.”
Each area will be progressively established by respective marae with the ultimate aim of improving traditional customary kaimoana provision for marae and developing methods for repopulating local fish and seafood stocks.
In its consent decision the council said the māra moana were within areas mapped in its Proposed Regional Plan (PRP) maps as ‘Aquaculture Exclusion Areas’ and ‘Significant Ecological Areas’. The proposed māra moana in Whapukapirau Bay was also located within a mapped Te Hā o Tangaroa Protection Area known as te Rākaumangamanga Rāhui Tapu.
However, the council says the PRP provides a rule for marae-based aquaculture in significant and development areas and the Te Hā o Tangaroa Protection Area rules did not apply to aquaculture activities.
It says the adverse effects on the environment of the māra moana had been determined to be no more than minor.
The proposed māra moana in Bland Bay and Kauri Bay are not located within an area identified in PRP maps as having either outstanding natural character or high natural character values. The māra moana in Whapukapirau Bay is located within an area mapped in the PRP as having high natural character.
The council says due to the small area to be occupied by the structures and the limited number of lines likely to be established, the effects on visual amenity and natural character at each location is likely to be low.
The māra moana structures and layout have also been specifically designed to be as open, passive and subsurface as possible in order to allow currents and waves to pass through.
The stocking densities of any species will not be high enough to have a more than minor impact on the quantity of nutrients and plankton consumed, and the quantity of waste generated will be low. Routine inspections of the māra moana by kaimahi will help ensure marine mammals are not caught in structures.
The council noted structures imported into the māra moana had the potential to act as a vector for marine pests. To ensure that these risks are minimised a Biosecurity Risk Management Plan for the establishment and operation of each māra moana has also been required as a condition of consent.
“The applicant has advised that the vessels will be launched and retrieved from the beach, (and) regularly inspected and cleaned.” “All equipment related to the farm, including spat devices or buoys to be deployed or retrieved from the farm will be transported by a local vessel.”
The council says Ngātiwai Trust Board, Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Hine and Ngāti Kuta each had an iwi/hapū environmental management plan relevant to the locations of this activity.
“These plans have been taken into account during the processing of the application and the granting of this consent is not considered to be contrary to the objectives and policies contained within these plans.”
The council says the presence and operation of the māra moana would not have adverse effects on any taiāpure, mātaitai or Māori non-commercial fisheries.
Their potential undue effects on commercial, recreational and customary fishing had also been separately considered by the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) which had not amended the areas or conditions imposed by the council. 
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Health – Hāpai Te Hauora Launches "Blocktober" – Aotearoa’s First VapeFree Month

Source: Hapai Te Hauora

Vaping is a growing public-health issue across Aotearoa-particularly for Māori-with the rapid uptake among rangatahi the biggest concern. To confront this challenge, Hāpai Te Hauora is launching Blocktober. This is the first dedicated vapefree month in Aotearoa with a rangatahi-focused campaign tackling the issue head on. The campaign will tour six regions this October, combining dance, tikanga Māori, and education to empower young people with knowledge about the harms of vaping and the tools to support informed hauora decisions.
Recent studies show an alarming 480,000 adults in Aotearoa now vape daily.[1] To prevent this number from climbing further, we must invest in educating the next generation. This means equipping rangatahi with the knowledge and support to make healthier choices for their future.
At the heart of Blocktober is the idea that every choice we make shapes our hauora. BLOCK is an acronym guiding this kaupapa:
Who do our choices BENEFIT?
Does it enhance LIFE?
Does it align with ORANGA WHENUA/ORANGA TANGATA?
Am I making informed CHOICES?
What is my KAUPAPA that supports my wellbeing?
Blocktober 2025 marks the beginning of an annual national campaign to promote healthier, vapefree future in Aotearoa.
References
[1] Nip, Janine, Richard Edwards, Janet Hoek, Andrew Waa, Jude Ball, and Michaela Pettie. “Vaping prevalence and trends: Important findings from 2023-24 NZ Health Survey.” Public Health Communication Centre Aotearoa. Accessed November 29, 2024.
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Health – Spotlight on the truth about alcohol and cancer in new digital campaign

Source: Alcohol Healthwatch

New Alcohol Healthwatch campaign launching in October highlights the link between alcohol and cancer during Breast Cancer Awareness Month. This digital campaign will share content across a range of platforms (including Tiktok and Reddit) and partner with influencers to talk about the issue.
“We have a simple goal,” says campaign lead Sarah Sneyd. “To shine a light on the truth about alcohol so people can make informed decisions about how much to drink.”
The alcohol industry work hard to keep us in the dark about this truth. They cast doubt on the research, spend millions on linking drinking to friendship, sports, and glamour, and lobby our politicians and officials to maintain favourable regulatory settings.
Associate Professor Andy Towers from Massey University agrees. “Evidence is clear that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption. It’s important that the public have the truth of how alcohol harms our health, including causing hard to treat cancer like oesophageal and common cancers like breast and bowel.”
The campaign also seeks to highlight how the alcohol industry put our kids under a constant spotlight that’s hard for them to escape. Even small amounts can damage young people’s DNA and lead to cancer over time.
Despite this, alcohol is everywhere – in our neighbourhoods, at our local sports clubs, near our children’s school – being constantly advertised, making it hard for any of us to avoid its harms.
“It’s important for people to make their own, informed choices, but when we’re kept in the dark and our neighbourhoods are swimming in alcohol, our choices are diminished,” says Sneyd.
The campaign, launching 1 October, will feature across Alcohol Healthwatch’s Meta, Tiktok, X, and LinkedIn accounts.
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Energy Resources Aotearoa backs pragmatic energy security package

Source: Energy Resources Aotearoa

Energy Resources Aotearoa acknowledges the Government’s response to the electricity market review conducted by Frontier Economics, calling it a measured and pragmatic package that strikes the right balance between stability and action.
Chief Executive John Carnegie says the decision not to embark on wholesale reform will provide the sector with the predictability it requires to invest with confidence.
“The Government has rightly avoided plunging the sector into uncertainty by focusing on surgical, targeted changes. You don’t rebuild investor confidence by smashing market settings and starting again. For a sector building billions in new generation, stability matters.”
Carnegie says the real test of the package will be whether it delivers the firming capacity needed to keep the lights on.
“Frontier’s report made it clear: the market by itself won’t deliver the dry-year backup New Zealand needs. Households and businesses already know this after two shaky winters and a run of industrial closures.
Making firming the cornerstone of the response is the right call. New Zealand can double renewable generation by 2050, but without ensuring secure firming, we risk blackouts and higher costs.”
Carnegie cautiously supports the decision to run a competitive procurement process for a liquefied natural gas import facility.
“LNG is the oxygen mask for our energy system-life support that gives us breathing room while domestic gas supply recovers and new generation is built.
It may well be a vital insurance policy that could keep the wider energy system up and running in dry years, but LNG will come with risks that require careful management.
That’s why it’s essential we also create the right regulatory and cost conditions to ensure economic production of domestic natural gas for as long as possible. This will deliver security at a lower cost to consumers and smooth the transition as New Zealand moves towards a lower-carbon future.”
Carnegie also welcomed moves to reduce policy risk for investors and lift capital constraints on the Mixed Ownership Model companies.
“With sovereign risk reduced and the generator retailers now freer to raise and deploy capital, Ministers have made it clear they expect these companies to seek out and bring forward commercially sound opportunities for new generation and, critically, new firming capacity.
With that expectation backed by the prospect of Crown support for credible projects, mixed-ownership companies are now in a stronger position to move forward more quickly.”
Carnegie says the Government was wise to reject some of the more disruptive recommendations from Frontier, including creating a centralised ‘Thermalco’, removing electricity from the Emissions Trading Scheme, or forcing amalgamations of electricity distribution businesses.
“Maintaining the market architecture while sharpening incentives strikes the right balance. The sector is now on notice to deliver the affordable and reliable energy New Zealanders need.”
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Balance of payments and international investment position: Year ended 31 March 2025 – Stats NZ information release


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Climate – Warming oceans prompt major overhaul of how we monitor El Niño and La Niña

Source: Earth Sciences New Zealand

Global warming is changing how we monitor one of the world’s biggest climate drivers, says Earth Sciences New Zealand.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a fluctuation of ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the Pacific. It is made up of opposite phases – El Niño and La Niña – and has a considerable impact on global weather, including here in New Zealand.
Earth Sciences NZ meteorologist Chris Brandolino says as our climate and seas warm, they’re interfering with the long-standing method used to monitor the ocean component of ENSO.
“Traditionally, ENSO is tracked by measuring how unusually warm or cool sea surface temperatures are in certain areas of the Pacific. However, as the climate warms, so do our oceans, which can muddy the ENSO waters. As ocean temperatures increase, we can overstate the frequency of the warm phase of ENSO, or El Niño, and understate the cool La Niña phase,” said Chris.
For example, during summer 2024-25, the traditional Niño index (TONI) did not reach the threshold of -0.7°C to classify La Niña. However, La Niña-like conditions were still observed across New Zealand, with above average air temperatures, widespread marine heatwave conditions, and rainfall totals that were above normal in eastern areas and below normal in western areas.
“In response, we’re updating the way we calculate the sea surface temperatures anomalies, or difference from average, that help us track and forecast ENSO” says Chris.
The move follows a similar announcement by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology last month.
The new approach uses a method that assesses how unusually warm or cool ocean temperatures are in specific locations compared to the current tropical mean temperature (averaged between 20° south and 20° north).
“Had this been applied during summer 2024-25, the La Niña classification threshold would have been met, demonstrating how the updated methodology better reflects ENSO impacts in a warming climate,” says Chris.
While ENSO remains a key driver of climate variability in New Zealand, it is only one part of a complex system.
For the most reliable guidance on expected rainfall and temperature patterns in the coming season, refer to our Seasonal Climate Outlook, which is due out tomorrow.
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Northland News – Madagascar ragwort MOU signed

Source: Northland Regional Council

Northland Regional Council, DairyNZ Limited, Beef + Lamb New Zealand.and Pāmu have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to fund the development of a business case and options analysis for the management of the pasture invader Madagascar ragwort.
Council Chair Geoff Crawford says the unwanted plant is widespread in parts of Northland, including the Aupōuri and Karikari Peninsulas, Victoria Valley (south of Kaitaia), and areas around Doubtless Bay, Kapiro, Kerikeri, and Kaikohe.
“Infestations are rapidly increasing in both scale and density; Madagascar ragwort is not just another weed – it is a ‘next level’ threat to pastoral farming in New Zealand that will have severe consequences.”
Chair Crawford says the weed – which can cover about 80 percent of an area once established – has the potential to spread throughout New Zealand, with climate modelling showing that as well as the North Island, large parts of the South Island could also be susceptible.
He says the MOU aims to demonstrate the potential economic impact for New Zealand and the case for investment, as well as outline the priorities for awareness actions, regulation, and control and biocontrol research.
The council and Pāmu recently prepared a submission and appeared before the Primary Production Committee to continue to advocate for central government support for research and a national awareness programme.
Pāmu CEO Mark Lelsie says the MOU reflects a shared commitment to collaborative action on the invasive species, which poses serious risks to farm productivity.
“Working alongside government and industry partners, we’re focused on practical, science-based solutions that protect the land and support our farming communities.”
Chair Crawford says stock avoid grazing near the plant due to its toxicity, but while this toxicity is a serious concern, the plant’s most significant impact lies in the associated loss of pasture productivity.
“In the worst case – if nothing is done about the weed – the resulting productivity losses are likely to drive primary producers off the land.”
Pāmu estimates lost production associated with the weed at $300 per hectare annually on livestock farms while current herbicide treatments are both financially and environmentally costly and not sustainable in the medium to long term.
Chair Crawford says while the actual arrival date of the weed in New Zealand is unknown, it’s suspected it may have been here for about 20 years.
“However, given its windborne seed dispersal mechanism its actual distribution is likely to be significantly underestimated.”
Chair Crawford says once present on a farm, the rate of spread and intensification of the infestation is rapid.
In Northland, individual plants can survive for multiple years, and without significant intervention pastures rapidly become dominated by the weed.
“Northland farmers report that infestations can progress from initial detection to a major problem within two years.” “Plants can flower in as little as six weeks after emergence and a single plant may produce up to 30,000 seeds annually.”
He says there is a risk of seeds leaving the region via machinery, hay, stock hooves, and through activities such as horse events where hay is taken as feed into other regions.
Chair Crawford says anyone managing land for stock production, cropping and other similar land uses should familiarise themselves with what Madagascar ragwort looks like before it becomes an issue.
“Keep searching for it before it becomes fully established and know how best to control it.”
He says further information on Madagascar ragwort can be found at: www.nrc.govt.nz/MadagascarRagwort
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UNCTAD – When trade deals expire: What’s at stake for Africa and the US?

Source: UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, Geneva

29 September 2025 – Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.

 
AGOA) is a non-reciprocal US trade preference programme introduced in May 2000 to support sub-Saharan African economies. The programme grants duty-free access to the US market to over 1800 products from many African economies.

Currently, 32 countries are eligible for preferential treatment under AGOA, of which 21 “lesser developed countries”, as defined by the US, also receive special textiles/apparel preferential treatment.

In 2023, US imports under AGOA totalled nearly $10 billion. While this accounted for only a small fraction of overall US merchandise imports, it represented a substantial share of exports from eligible countries, such as Lesotho and Madagascar.

African economies and the US have both benefited

AGOA preferences have boosted the competitiveness of African exporters and their importance has been substantial for certain countries and sectors, notably apparel. However, not all African countries have managed to successfully harness AGOA to diversify their exports away from primary commodities, and the rate of utilization of AGOA preferences remains uneven across beneficiaries and products.

With most US imports under AGOA consisting of fuels, metals and apparel products, US firms enjoyed greater choice and lower prices on imported raw material and intermediates, which enhances competitiveness in downstream industries.

The programme has also been instrumental in fostering US foreign direct investment in the African region, contributing to the establishment of more resilient supply chains.