Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

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Real Estate – Rental market in abundance as Kiwis flock to Oz in record numbers

Source: RealEstate.co.nz

  • Rental stock up 17.4% compared to November 2024 
  • Record number of new listings hit rental market – 7,253 properties
  • West Coast average rental price hits $500/week bracket for the first time.

Latest data from realestate.co.nz shows New Zealand’s rental market is awash with properties with a record 7,253 new rental listings hitting the market in November 2025, a 12.4% increase on the same time last year.  Total rental stock – 8,801 properties – has also increased by 17.4% year-on-year.

Sarah Wood, CEO of realestate.co.nz, says this significant lift in rental stock is likely a result of mixed factors, landlords opting to re-let their properties as opposed to sell them, and the high number of Kiwis leaving New Zealand for Australia.

“We know New Zealand's net migration loss to Australia has reached a 12-year high, and the majority of those moving have been in the prime tenant demographic – 20-39-year-olds. While this surge in supply of rental properties presents clear opportunities for renters remaining in New Zealand, it’s also creating a market that landlords and investors will need to navigate carefully.”

Record number of rentals available in the regions

The plethora of rental properties could also be found in regional pockets with new rental listings at record highs in Hawke’s Bay, Manawatu/Whanganui, Waikato, and Wairarapa.

  • Hawke’s Bay climbed 176% year-on-year to 127 listings
  • Manawatu/Wanganui had a 32.5% increase in new listings with 363 properties
  • Waikato’s supply of rental listings increased 12.3% to 783 properties
  • Wairarapa recorded a 52.7% increase in new listings in November to 84 properties.

Wood says: “To see all-time highs in new rental listings across four regional markets during the same month is significant.”

Rental rates continue to fall, but West Coast bucks the trend

In November, the national average rental asking price reduced slightly by 3.1% to $626/week, compared to $646/week at the same time last year. However, some regions bucked the trend.

The West Coast recorded an average weekly rental rate in the $500/week bracket for the first time, with the region’s average rent at $518/week in November 2025, an 8.4% increase year-on-year. Southland also recorded an 8.5% increase, with the average rent in the region now $483/week.

“These increases suggest strong local demand and they’re a reminder that not all rental markets move in sync,” says Wood. “Seeing the West Coast cross the $500 mark for the first time is a notable milestone, especially in a market where the national average has declined.”

Defining moment for New Zealand’s rental market

Wood says November’s numbers confirm the market continues to sway in tenants’ favour. “With more rental properties on the market than ever before, alongside policy settings including changes to pet rules coming into effect this week, the dynamic between landlords and tenants is changing. It’s a rental market reset and everyone in the sector will need to adapt.”

 

About realestate.co.nz | New Zealand’s Best Small Workplace (2025)

We’ve been helping people buy, sell, or rent property since 1996.  

Established before Google, realestate.co.nz is New Zealand’s longest-standing property website and the official website of the real estate industry. In 2025, realestate.co.nz was crowned Best Small/Micro Workplace in New Zealand by Great Place to Work.

Dedicated only to property, our mission is to empower people with a property search tool they can use to find the life they want to live. With residential, lifestyle, rural and commercial property listings, realestate.co.nz is the place to start for those looking to buy or sell property.    

Whatever life you’re searching for, it all starts here.   

Want more property insights?  

  • Market insights: Search by suburb to see median sale prices, popular property types and trends over time.  
  • Sold properties: Switch your search to sold to see the latest sale prices and an estimated value in the current market.   

Glossary of terms: 

The average weekly rental rate is an indication of current market sentiment. It is calculated by taking the asking rental rate of every residential property listed during that month and dividing it by the total number of rental properties. The average is a truncated mean. 

New listings are a record of all the new residential dwellings listed for rent on realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. Listings on the site include rental properties listed by Property Managers and private landlords and provide a representative view of the New Zealand rental property market. 

Stock is the total number of residential dwellings that are for rent on realestate.co.nz on the penultimate day of the month. 

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Human Rights Commission intervention a boost for landmark pay equity legal case

Source: PSA

The PSA welcomes the High Court confirming that the Human Rights Commission can intervene in the landmark High Court action launched by five unions challenging the Government's decision to scrap 33 pay equity claims and gut the Equal Pay Act 1972.
The Human Rights Commission is offering the Court its expertise on pay equity, given it has statutory authority to promote equal employment opportunities and to monitor New Zealand's compliance with international human rights conventions, particularly those covering discrimination against women.
“The intervention of the Human Rights Commission in this litigation is significant and welcome,” said Fleur Fitzsimons, National Secretary for the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi.
“The commission’s statutory role is to promote equal employment opportunities including pay equity so it has a unique perspective to offer the Court.
“The Government rode roughshod over the human rights of New Zealand women when it cancelled pay equity claims and gutted the Equal Pay Act under urgency without consulting the very women impacted by this damaging decision.
“We know that the Commission with its expertise and deep knowledge of human rights will help us hold the Government to account for its outrageous actions to deprive New Zealand women of pay equity.
“We will not let the Government off the hook for its betrayal of New Zealand women.”
The High Court action was launched in August by five unions – the New Zealand Nurses Organisation, the PSA, E tū, the New Zealand Educational Institute and Tertiary Education Union – seeking a declaration that the amended Equal Pay Act 1972 is inconsistent with the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990.
The first stage in the litigation will take place with a 2-hour provision of discovery hearing by the High Court on 8 December 2025 at 10.00am
The unions represent more than 150,000 workers whose pay equity claims were cancelled.
The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.
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Value of building work put in place: September 2025 quarter – Stats NZ information release

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Value of building work put in place: September 2025 quarter – information release

4 December 2025

Value of building work statistics estimate the value and volume of work put in place on construction jobs in New Zealand.

Key facts
In the September 2025 quarter:

  • the seasonally adjusted total building volume rose 1.5 percent compared with the June 2025 quarter – residential rose 2.8 percent, and non-residential fell 1.3 percent
  • total building value was $8.2 billion, down 4.4 percent from the September 2024 quarter.

Visit our website to read this information release and to download CSV files:

For media enquiries contact: Media team, Wellington, media@stats.govt.nz“>media@stats.govt.nz, 021 285 9191

The Government Statistician authorises all statistics and data we publish.

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Employment Disputes – Fire and Emergency welcomes facilitation referral as best option to progress agreement with NZPFU

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand – Statement

The NZPFU should call off continued strikes while facilitation process plays out Fire and Emergency says
Fire and Emergency New Zealand welcomes the Employment Relations Authority’s decision to refer it and the New Zealand Professional Firefighters Union (NZPFU) to facilitation to help make progress in bargaining for a collective employment agreement.
“Attending independent facilitation with the Authority is the next logical step in coming to an agreement and we will participate in good faith with the NZPFU,” Deputy National Commander Megan Stiffler says.
“We ask the NZPFU to call off its strike tomorrow and all planned future strikes while both parties are preparing for facilitation which represents the best opportunity to settle bargaining.
“There is no good reason for continuing to put the community at risk while we go through that process.”
The parties have been in talks for a collective employment agreement for more than 16 months.
“We hope the facilitation process introduces some realism into the discussions.The NZPFU’s most recent settlement proposal was more than three times higher than our last offer, which we believe was fair, sustainable, and reasonable and in line with other settlements across the public service.”
Fire and Emergency’s recent offer amounts to a 6.2 percent average increase over 3 years and compares favourably with equivalent public sector agreements.
“We believe our latest offer represents a fair and sustainable increase for our people. It would’ve taken average senior firefighter salaries from a range of approximately $81,000-$87,000 to $86,000-$93,000 at the end of the period. That excludes overtime and allowances, which currently adds an average of almost $39,000 to annual remuneration.
“We’ve approached talks in good faith with the goal of reaching a fair, sustainable, and reasonable settlement with the NZPFU that keeps our communities safe. Fire and Emergency values the incredible dedication of our people, which is why over the past decade average senior firefighter pay has cumulatively increased by 37 percent, or more than 10 percent above the average total increase for all workers.
“We’re also conscious that approximately 95 percent of Fire and Emergency’s operations are funded by a levy on New Zealanders’ building, contents and vehicle insurance, and the cost-of-living pressures that would arise from pushing those costs up too much,” Megan Stiffler says.
The Authority has indicated it will convene a case management conference to make the necessary arrangements to progress this matter. 
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Weather News – Heat returns to the east – MetService

Source: MetService

Covering period of Thursday 4th – Monday 8th December – Heat returns to the east.
 
Yesterday (Wednesday) the North Island saw wet and wild weather as an active low-pressure system crossed overhead.

The North Island had more than 17,000 lightning strikes overland.
The region with the most was Bay of Plenty with around 3,800 strikes.
The highest intensity rainfalls recorded were 43mm/h in Matamata, 37mm/h near Devonport in Auckland and 31.9mm/h in Gisborne.

Most regions will see the sun come out this weekend, especially in the North Island as high pressure builds and brings settled weather. The weekend will be more of a rollercoaster for the South Island.

MetService has a Strong Wind Watch for Southland, Otago and Canterbury High Country south of Aoraki / Mount Cook on Friday. Gusts of 100km/h can be expected, especially inland.

These northwesterly winds will also drive up the temperature for eastern regions. Christchurch, Ashburton, and Oamaru will all crack 30°C on Friday, and a MetService Heat Alert will be in place for Oamaru. Saturday will be more temperate in these regions, then the northwesterly returns on Sunday to bring the heat back.

In the North Island, the heat will be more persistent. Gisborne, Napier and Hastings are forecast to exceed 30°C on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

The West Coast will see a sprinkling of showers on Saturday, but more substantial rain arrives in the west and south of the South Island on Sunday. This band of rain moves north on Monday, weakening as it travels. The North Island remains out of reach and dry on Monday.

MetService Meteorologist Michael Pawley details “Saturday will be the pick of the days this weekend in the South Island; perfect timing for runners to complete the Kepler Challenge and be off the mountain before the rain rolls in overnight.”
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Education – Open letter to Education Minister from Tai Tokerau Principals’ Association

Source: NZ Principals Federation

Open letter follows:
Tēnā koe Minister Stanford,
On behalf of the Tai Tokerau Principals’ Association (TTPA), representing 108 primary and intermediate school principals across the six regions of Te Tai Tokerau (Northland), I am writing to express our profound opposition to the government's decision to remove the requirement for school boards to give effect to Te Tiriti o Waitangi within the Education and Training Act 2020.
The TTPA is committed to fostering an education system that is culturally responsive and ensures the success of all ākonga (students). In Te Tai Tokerau, where a significant proportion of our students are Māori, this commitment is not just a professional goal but a moral imperative. We believe that schools must be environments where ākonga Māori and their whānau feel a deep sense of belonging, connection, and cultural affirmation. The proposed amendment to the Act directly undermines this fundamental principle.
We support the vital role of school boards in governance and their focus on core responsibilities such as student achievement, attendance, and well-being. However, we contend that honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi is not a distraction from these responsibilities but is, in fact, integral to achieving them. Our principals and their boards work diligently to ensure that their school's plans, policies, and curriculum reflect local tikanga Māori, mātauranga Māori, and te ao Māori. This work is essential for ensuring that our Māori students, who represent a significant and growing part of our school communities, see themselves and their heritage valued within our education system.
The removal of the explicit obligation to uphold Te Tiriti o Waitangi sends a damaging message that the principles of partnership, participation, and protection are negotiable and can be relegated to a matter of voluntary goodwill. While we are confident that our principals will continue to champion Te Tiriti in their schools, we believe that legislation plays a crucial role in setting clear expectations, protecting progress, and ensuring that all schools in Aotearoa New Zealand are held to the same high standard. A legislative framework that is silent on Te Tiriti creates ambiguity and risks eroding the gains that have been made in creating a more equitable and inclusive education system.
We stand in solidarity with our colleagues in the wider education sector, in opposing this change. We urge you and your government to reconsider this decision and to reaffirm the Crown's commitment to Te Tiriti o Waitangi as a cornerstone of a high-quality, inclusive, and successful education system for all learners in Aotearoa.
We would welcome the opportunity to meet with you to discuss this important matter further.
Nāku noa, nā
Brendon Morrissey (TTPA President)
On behalf of the Tai Tokerau Principals’ Association
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Culture in the Digital Age: Preparing New Zealand for the Future

Source: Ministry for Culture and Heritage

Manatū Taonga Ministry for Culture and Heritage has released its Long-term Insights Briefing (LTIB) 2025, Culture in the Digital Age, exploring how digital technologies will change the ways New Zealanders create, share and protect their stories in 2040 and beyond.
This work has been informed by cultural sector and industry feedback received during public consultation. The LTIB does not set policy but provides impartial, future-focused insights and policy options to guide long-term decision-making.
By 2040, our cultural landscape will be deeply intertwined with artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies. These changes offer unprecedented opportunities for our cultural system – but they also raise significant ethical, legal, cultural, and governance challenges.
Key insights include:
  • By 2040, the concept of creativity will have changed. While creativity and technology have always been linked, recent developments in generative AI are calling into question what it means to be creative, and who has the power to create.
  • By 2040, we won’t be able to tell which stories are real. The increasing use of AI-generated synthetic content in mis- and disinformation, are making it harder for people to tell what is real and exacerbating existing socioeconomic inequalities.
  • How New Zealanders’ stories are protected will shape our future history. New tools are emerging for the preservation and revitalisation of knowledge, culture, heritage and language. However, the global community continues to grapple with how to best protect cultural heritage and intellectual property.
  • Māori data governance principles and cultural values may help safeguard future stories in New Zealand’s unique context. Emerging frameworks are guiding responsible data governance, empowering communities to control and protect their cultural knowledge.
Secretary for Culture and Heritage Leauanae Laulu Mac Leauanae says: “This briefing explores key trends, risks and opportunities, and presents policy options to ensure our cultural system remains vibrant, inclusive and resilient in the digital age. The insights can guide efforts to grow and harness the potential of digital technologies while safeguarding the values and traditions that define us.”
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Greenpeace – Govt rejects climate advice less than a week after deadly floods in Asia kill over 1400

Source: Greenpeace

The Government has today announced it is rejecting all of the Climate Change Commission's emissions target recommendations and will not include emissions from international shipping and aviation in New Zealand's targets.
Greenpeace has been left speechless by the decision.
“There are no words to describe just how morally bankrupt this decision is,” says Greenpeace campaigner Gen Toop.
“Deadly climate fuelled flooding in Asia last week killed more than 1400 people with hundreds still missing. Instead of stepping up in this moment of global crisis, the Government’s response is to toss out every recommendation from its own climate experts.”
“This Government is acting like climate deniers. Rejecting science, reviving and subsidising fossil fuels and weakening the methane target – every move this Government makes pushes us deeper into the climate crisis.”
This announcement is the latest step in what Greenpeace describes as a systematic dismantling of decades of climate action, which it has documented in an extensive timeline beginning just days after the Luxon Government took office.
“It is clear that the Government has chosen to side with fossil fuel and agribusiness corporations over human life and the survival of nature. History will not be kind to leaders who had every warning, every piece of evidence, and still chose to pour petrol on the fire,” says Toop.
Carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere jumped by the highest amount on record last year, and the Climate Change Commission has warned that the effects of climate change are hitting New Zealand sooner and more severely than expected.
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Legislation – Retirement village reforms – step in right direction to strengthen rights of residents

Source: Retirement Villages' Residents' Council

Long awaited reforms to the retirement village sector will better protect residents and their families who have sometimes waited too long to be paid out for vacated and unsold village units, says the Retirement Villages’ Residents’ Council.
The reforms announced by the Government today include mandatory payment of capital on unsold or vacated units at 12 months, interest payable on capital after six months, clear rules on chattels – ‘you own it, you fix it.’ and a new independent complaints scheme. These are areas the Council has strongly advocated for.
“These changes are a welcome step in the right direction. They strike a better balance, being fairer for residents and village operators alike,” said Council spokesperson Carol Shepherd.
“As representatives of residents of villages across New Zealand, we would have liked the repayment of capital to have been six months, not 12 months.
“We also acknowledge that some residents who are in villages today will be upset that the new regime will not apply to their contracts.
“However, overall, these reforms strengthen protections for residents, particularly future residents, and their families without undermining the ability of operators, large or small, to invest, maintain quality, and provide a range of accommodation options for older Kiwis.
“It’s critical to have a sustainable village industry to meet the needs of our growing elderly population and these reforms recognise that village operators vary from the very large to the very small, run by charities and trusts. We need all kinds of operators that can thrive across New Zealand.
“The reforms also deal with other pain points for residents. For example, interest accruing at six months on capital, clarification of who fixes chattels, and no fees to be paid once units are vacated, coupled with an independent complaints resolution scheme.
“It’s important that residents and their families who make such a significant investment in their twilight years can access a low cost, independent process to resolve issues – this will reduce stress and speed resolution.
“All up the reforms mean residents in the future can look forward to a more consistent approach to how their interests are managed by village operators no matter where they live – that’s a good thing.
“Residents tell us what they need so we encourage the Minister and officials to work with the Council to co-design the complaints scheme, a standard ORA template, and a chattel-ownership framework.
“We need a regime that is fairer for residents and one that also ensures we have a sustainable industry – the quicker the law changes pass through Parliament the better for all,” said Shepherd.
About the Retirement Villages’ Residents’ Council
Who does the Council represent?
The Council is a fresh independent voice to advocate on behalf of retirement village residents.
Who are the Council members?
The Council currently has 7 members who were nominated by their villages and / or residents and selected by the independent chair. They reside in various retirement villages, both large and small, throughout the country and bring significant experience to the council, many having served or are serving on the residents committees of villages.
Why was the Council formed?
The Council aims to act as an independent body representing the interests of retirement village residents.
How is the Council independent when funded by operators?
The Council is funded by the Retirement Villages Association (RVA), which represents most of the operators, developers and managers of retirement villages throughout New Zealand. However, the RVA has no say in anything that the Council does, including its views on policies or how it spends its budget. It does not attend meetings, does not receive agendas or minutes and has no influence over how the Council’s budget is applied. This independence is underpinned by the Council’s terms of reference.
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Property values still in a holding pattern – Cotality

Source: Cotality

Property values in Aotearoa New Zealand were flat in November, a slightly softer result after a modest 0.1% lift in October, according to Cotality NZ’s latest hedonic Home Value Index (HVI).

The national median now sits at $806,551, which is 17.4% below the early 2022 peak and only a modest 1.1% higher than June 2023’s trough.

Across the main centres, Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland remained sluggish in November (down by -0.2%), with Ōtepoti Dunedin and Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington edging up by 0.1%. Ōtautahi Christchurch recorded a 0.3% rise, while Tauranga was up by 0.6% in November and Kirikiriroa Hamilton by 0.7%.

Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson, said that although wider sentiment about the economy and property market seems to be turning upwards, values themselves are proving slow to shift.

“Property values across the country were patchy over May to August as households and firms remained in a cautious mood. September and October brought a few signs of life for values, but November just eased off a little bit again.”

“Clearly, the falls in mortgage rates we’ve seen lately would point to a bit more upside for property values as we get into 2026, not least because a range of housing affordability measures have also improved back closer to their long-term averages.”

“But the subdued November property value data suggests that this process continues to take a bit of time to get started.”

“On that point, it’s also worth keeping in mind that the stock of listings on the market remains higher than its normal level for the time of year, and many buyers will still be feeling that they’re in the box-seat when it comes to price negotiations.”

“At the same time, while the economy is showing some encouraging signs, the unemployment rate is still a concern and jobs growth is yet to kick into gear.”

“On balance, the fundamentals seem to be moving towards growth in property values next year. But right now, we remain in a holding pattern.”


Index results for November 2025
Change in dwelling values
Month
Quarter
Annual
From peak
Median value
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
-0.2%
-0.4%
-2.2%
-22.9%
$1,048,423
Kirikiriroa Hamilton
0.7%
1.7%
0.3%
-11.4%
$731,952
Tauranga
0.6%
1.3%
1.2%
-15.2%
$926,377
Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington*
0.1%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-25.1%
$778,148
Ōtautahi Christchurch
0.3%
1.0%
2.6%
-3.8%
$705,030
Ōtepoti Dunedin
0.1%
0.9%
0.2%
-10.8%
$616,911
Aotearoa New Zealand
0.0%
0.0%
-0.7%
-17.4%
$806,551

Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland

Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland’s various sub-markets generally weakened again in November, with only Waitakere bucking the trend, edging up by 0.2%. Elsewhere, the falls ranged from a modest -0.1% in North Shore down to -0.8% in Papakura.

Papakura has also been a weaker area over the past three months too (down by -1.2%), whereas Rodney has been flat since August, and North Shore up by 0.8%.

Compared to the previous peak, the falls across Tāmaki Makaurau continue to range from around -19% down to -25%.

“Across the super-city as a whole, November was the eighth monthly decline in a row, totalling -3.1%. That’s after a smaller, cumulative rise of 1.6% in the seven months to March this year. In other words, Tāmaki Makaurau continues to lag many other parts of the country, and this is weighing on the national median. Buyer caution and a relatively high supply of property are relevant factors here,” Mr Davidson noted.

 Region
Change in dwelling values
Month
Quarter
Annual
From peak
Median value
Rodney
-0.4%
0.0%
-1.1%
-20.8%
$1,201,060
Te Raki Paewhenua North Shore
-0.1%
0.8%
-2.1%
-18.9%
$1,273,877
Waitakere
0.2%
-0.3%
-1.6%
-24.4%
$921,268
Auckland City
-0.4%
-0.7%
-2.5%
-23.9%
$1,118,156
Manukau
-0.3%
-1.0%
-2.8%
-24.7%
$966,047
Papakura
-0.8%
-1.2%
-2.2%
-24.3%
$810,862
Franklin
-0.3%
-0.7%
-1.3%
-22.4%
$927,972
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
-0.2%
-0.4%
-2.2%
-22.9%
$1,048,423

Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington

It was also a mixed bag for the wider Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington area in November, with Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt seeing property values fall by -0.5%, and Kāpiti Coast edging down by -0.1%. However, the other sub-markets rose, with Wellington City itself seeing a 0.4% increase.

That said, the falls from peak remain significant across the region, ranging from around   -23% in Kāpiti Coast and Porirua, down to -27% in Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt.

“There are a few patchy signs of life around some of these areas, with Wellington City, for example, now rising for two months in a row. But the general story for Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington’s property market still looks fairly sluggish, reflecting the subdued state of the underlying economy and muted sentiment.”

 Region
Change in dwelling values
Month
Quarter
Annual
From peak
Median value
Kāpiti Coast
-0.1%
-0.6%
-2.4%
-22.7%
$788,814
Porirua
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.5%
-23.3%
$765,230
Te Awa Kairangi ki Uta Upper Hutt
0.2%
-0.5%
-3.1%
-25.2%
$700,544
Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt
-0.5%
-1.8%
-2.2%
-26.8%
$672,741
Wellington City
0.4%
0.7%
-1.4%
-24.7%
$865,060
Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
0.1%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-25.1%
$778,148

Regional results
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland remains the laggard among the main centres, but some provincial markets were also soft in November.

In particular, Ahuriri Napier dipped by -0.3%, Heretaunga Hastings by -0.2%, and Tāhuna Queenstown by -0.6%. That said, Tāhuna Queenstown has still shown a bit of growth over a broader three-month horizon.

There was also a cluster of provincial markets that were either flat or only edged higher in November, but Whangārei with a 0.5% monthly rise and Waihōpai Invercargill at 0.8% stood out to a clearer degree. The latter is one of only four districts where property values were at a new peak in November – including Gore, Ashburton, and Kaikoura.

“If you take a step back, the broad trend among many of the country’s regional markets has been for property value falls to become less widespread in recent months. That seems consistent with better results from the primary sector of our economy, including dairying, which will be creating a bit more cashflow in those areas and rising sentiment.”

 Region
Change in dwelling values
Month
Quarter
Annual
From peak
Median value
Whangārei
0.5%
-1.0%
0.3%
-19.5%
$710,813
Ahuriri Napier
-0.3%
-0.8%
0.3%
-19.4%
$686,169
Te Papaioea Palmerston North
0.3%
0.8%
-0.5%
-18.6%
$606,986
Heretaunga Hastings
-0.2%
0.4%
2.4%
-16.9%
$712,260
Tairāwhiti Gisborne
0.3%
0.6%
1.8%
-15.9%
$595,257
Whanganui
0.1%
-0.2%
-1.7%
-13.6%
$488,990
Whakatū Nelson
0.0%
0.1%
-1.8%
-13.2%
$722,258
Rotorua
0.1%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-13.0%
$616,578
Ngāmotu New Plymouth
0.0%
-0.7%
-0.1%
-6.4%
$695,531
Tāhuna Queenstown
-0.6%
0.4%
-0.8%
-4.8%
$1,561,310
Waihōpai Invercargill
0.8%
2.1%
3.9%
At peak
$503,847

Property market outlook

In summing up, Mr Davidson noted: “there’s a sense that it’s one step forward and one step back for property values right now, especially in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland.”

“That said, although there may not be much direct impact on the housing market from last week’s OCR drop, mortgage rates have already fallen a long way in the past year or so and as current fixed terms roll over more existing borrowers will enjoy the benefits.”

“Clearly, new borrowers are already accessing those lower rates, with first home buyers remaining a very strong presence in the market, and mortgaged multiple property owners, including ‘Mum and Dad’ investors, also steadily returning.”

“On top of the falls in mortgage rates, a rise in sales volumes may erode the stock of listings on the market in 2026, alongside a probable upturn in the economy and jobs market. In this environment, property values look poised to grow more consistently.”

“However, a recent rise in the stock of property relative to population, as well as the presence of debt-to-income ratio caps, suggests that any house price growth in 2026 is likely to be controlled rather than crazy,” Mr Davidson concluded.

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Notes:

The Cotality Hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property into its various formational and locational attributes, observed sales values for each property can be distinguished between those attributed to the property’s attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Additionally, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the entire residential property stock can be accurately tracked through time.