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Economy – OCR on hold at 2.25% with inflation expected to fall – Reserve Bank of NZ

Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

18 February 2026 – Annual consumers price inflation was slightly above the Monetary Policy Committee's 1 to 3 percent target band at the end of 2025. Increases in food and electricity prices and local council rates were the biggest contributors to above-target inflation.

The economy is at an early stage in its recovery. With ongoing strength in commodity prices, economic activity in the agricultural sector and regional New Zealand remains strong. Although residential and business investment is increasing, households remain cautious in their spending. The labour market is stabilising, but unemployment remains elevated. House price growth remains weak, dampening household wealth and inclination to spend.

In response to previous cuts in the OCR, economic growth is broadening across sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, construction and some retail. Economic growth is expected to increase over 2026.

Inflation is most likely returning to within the Committee's 1 to 3 percent target band in the current quarter. The Committee is confident that inflation will fall to the 2 percent midpoint over the next 12 months due to spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth, and core inflation within the target band.

Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced. The global environment remains highly uncertain. Domestically, greater caution by households in their spending decisions could slow the pace of New Zealand's economic recovery, risking inflation falling below the target midpoint. But with demand increasing in the economy, businesses could try to increase prices faster than expected, leaving inflation above the target midpoint.

The Committee agreed to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time. The Committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully. As the recovery strengthens and inflation falls sustainably towards the target midpoint, monetary policy settings will gradually normalise.

Read the full statement and Record of meeting: https://govt.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bd316aa7ee4f5679c56377819&id=cc3fd2de11&e=f3c68946f8

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Gumboot Friday Wraps January in Hope: Giving 1,311 Young Kiwis a Lifeline

Source: Gumboot Friday

In January 2026, Gumboot Friday provided 1,311 young people aged 5–25 with free counselling support, delivering a total of 1,928 sessions nationwide. Every session is no-cost, requires no referral, and is chosen by the young person from a network of registered counsellors on the Gumboot Friday platform.

Breaking it down by age group:

  • 277 young people aged 5–11 (27%)
  • 382 young people aged 12–17 (29%)
  • 652 young people aged 18–25 (50%)

These figures reflect the steady, month-after-month work of getting rangatahi into a safe space to talk and finally get things off their chest when they need to.

“I look at these January numbers and see so many young people—some as little as 5 or 6—who got to sit down with a counsellor who really listened, no rush, no judgement, just letting them be heard for the first time in a while probably. That’s powerful stuff for kids who’ve been carrying heavy things.

“None of this happens without the incredible support from Kiwis who donate to I Am Hope. Government funding covers the counselling sessions themselves, while your donations to I Am Hope keep the Gumboot Friday platform running—onboarding counsellors, maintaining the system, running our Little People Big Feelings programme, and supporting the wider I Am Hope foundation. We’re deeply grateful, from the bottom of my heart. Thank you for believing in our kids and making sure help is there when they need it,” says I Am Hope founder Mike King.

If you or someone you know under 25 needs someone to talk to, visit www.gumbootfriday.com to connect with a counsellor today.

To donate, fundraise, or get involved with I Am Hope and Gumboot Friday, head to www.gumbootfriday.com or text HOPE to 469 for a $3 donation.

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EMA – Employment Law Changes Bring Certainty for Employers and Contractors

Source: EMA

Yesterday’s third reading of the Employment Relations Amendment Bill gives employers long-sought clarity on defining the status of contractors in the workplace, says the Employers and Manufacturers Association (EMA).
The EMA’s Head of Advocacy, Alan McDonald, said that wish for clarity predates the recent Uber court decision and gives employers a four-gateway test that they can apply in determining the status of contractors. In addition, for those working on contracts the new legislation clarifies what they can do within their contract, including the ability to work for other clients.
“The Bill also reverses an unpopular measure imposed by the previous government requiring employers to sign up new employees to union-based collectives and to provide information to new employees about joining unions,” says McDonald.
“In a time of declining union membership, this was seen by many of our employers as a ploy to help unions shore up their memberships, especially when employees then had to choose to opt out of that union membership after 30 days.
“The change to remediation measures is another positive for employers. The idea that reinstatement should be the first priority for remediation – if a hearing in the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) finds in favour of the employee – was anathema to many employers and had been imposed on them by the previous Employment Relations Amendment Bill.
“Generally, if the case has reached the authority, the relationship between the employer and employee is irretrievably broken – and expecting that employee to be amicably re-integrated into the workforce is unrealistic. It’s telling that of all the cases that went before the ERA, only about half a dozen employees were reinstated. They are the anomalies, not the norm.
“It also seems logical that employees who contribute to their own dismissal should have that behaviour taken into account when they later raise claims against the employer. It was counterintuitive that such behaviour was sometimes disregarded by the authority when awards for unjustified dismissal were made.”
“The other major change is that employees earning more than $200,000 will no longer be able to bring an unjustified dismissal claim.
“That threshold has risen from the previous $180,000, and it’s important to remember that it applies only to unjustified dismissal claims. The grounds for any other type of claim remain unchanged.
“These changes will help rebalance some of the current inequities facing employers,” says McDonald.
In today’s competitive and challenging workplace, employers need confidence and certainty that their employment relations practices are correct and within the law.
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Employment Research – Strategic hiring, rising pay pressures and a borderless workforce – Robert Walters

Source: Robert Walters

Robert Walters identifies New Zealand's key labour and salary trends for 2026

Auckland, New Zealand, 18th Feb 2026 - 2026 will be a year of strategic hiring, increased pressure on salaries, and rising workforce mobility across New Zealand, according to new research from global talent solutions partner Robert Walters.  

The findings come from its latest Salary Guide, launching today, which surveyed over 2,300 white-collar New Zealand professionals across 12 different industries.  

Shay Peters, CEO, Robert Walters Australia & New Zealand: ”The New Zealand labour market is showing a renewed sense of optimism, but caution remains. Businesses are hiring again, skills shortages persist, and employees are carefully weighing where they work, what they earn, and whether to relocate. This combination is reshaping the workforce: organisations face pressure to attract and retain talent, address capability gaps, and balance pay with cost-of-living concerns, while employees are increasingly strategic about career moves and mobility. How companies respond now will have a direct impact on productivity, growth, and their ability to secure and retain the talent they need for success in the future.” 

Key labour market trends  

Hiring rebounds, but jobseekers remain cautious after 2025 turmoil

Market confidence is gradual but strengthening, with 76% of New Zealand businesses planning to hire in 2026, up from 66% in 2025. 

Hiring demand varies regionally. Canterbury leads hiring intent at 78%, followed by Auckland (75%) and Wellington (72%). 

Despite this uplift in business confidence, employee mobility has cooled. 53% of New Zealand professionals are considering a role change this year, down from 63% in 2025, suggesting a more cautious workforce. 

Shay comments: ”Hiring intent has increased since last year, signalling that businesses are ready to move forward. However, employees are taking a more considered approach. From conversations we've been having with job seekers, we know the unstable condition of the 2025 labour market is making people concerned about job prospects in 2026. Economic uncertainty over the past year has made many professionals very risk-aware. The labour market is gradually rebalancing, rather than surging.” 

Salary growth remains modest as cost-of-living pressures persist

In 2025, 57% of New Zealand professionals received a pay rise, although most increases fell within the modest 2.5%-5% range, limiting their real impact. 

67% of New Zealand businesses intend to offer salary increases in 2026, while 56% of professionals expect one. 

42% of employees feel underpaid, but 83% of employers believe salaries are keeping pace with the cost of living, highlighting a perception gap. 

Salary dissatisfaction varies regionally. In Canterbury, 46% of professionals do not believe their salary matches the cost of living. In Auckland this stands at 42%, and in Wellington 39%. 

Shay comments: ”As businesses come out of last year's restructures, organisations have an opportunity to reassess remuneration. Where salary increases are not feasible, employers must focus on career progression, flexibility, and skills development. It's no secret the movement of New Zealand talent to Australia is well underway. Dissatisfaction around pay is a high retention risk, especially as overseas markets actively target New Zealand talent.” 

Skills shortages squeeze productivity across key sectors

Skills shortages remain critical, with 81% of New Zealand employers experiencing gaps over the past year. 

Regional pressure varies, with 52% of Auckland employers reporting shortages, followed by Wellington (49%) and Canterbury (39%). 

The most acute gaps are in industry-specific expertise (52%), digital and technology capability (37%), and leadership skills (31%) - these areas closely linked to productivity and organisational performance. 

Hiring challenges are compounded by unsuitable applicants (62%) and a lack of formal qualifications (53%). 

 Shay comments: ”Skills shortages are a severe productivity issue. When capability gaps persist, delivery slows and growth opportunities are missed. 

New Zealand organisations must take a long-term view, investing in leadership development, digital capability, and structured workforce planning. Skills gaps directly impact productivity and growth, and with more talent continuing to move to Australia, this challenge will intensify unless decisive action is taken now. Waiting for the market to correct itself is no longer a viable strategy in a competitive global talent landscape.” 

AI adoption accelerates, but concerns remain

AI integration is gaining momentum. 86% of New Zealand businesses are actively promoting AI, and 70% of employers say AI skills are important. 

Adoption at employee level is already high, with 69% using AI in their roles. However, 51% express concern about AI's future impact on their job.

Shay comments: ”New Zealand businesses are embracing AI at pace, but adoption must be matched with transparency and training. The fact that over half of employees are concerned about AI's future impact highlights the importance of clear communication and structured upskilling. 

At the speed AI is developing, it's critical that soft skills like leadership, collaboration, and problem-solving are not lost but actively encouraged alongside new technology. 

Done right, AI can increase efficiency, boost productivity, and complement human talent, supporting the goals outlined in New Zealand's 2025 AI Strategy for a productive, future-ready workforce.” 

Rising relocation trends are creating a borderless workforce

Mobility remains a defining feature of the New Zealand workforce. 58% of professionals are open to relocating for work. 

Interest varies regionally. In Auckland, 64% would consider relocating, compared with 53% in Wellington and 51% in Canterbury. 

Australia is the most attractive destination, with 65% naming it as their top choice. Domestically, 54% would consider relocating within New Zealand. Internationally, 23% would consider moving to the UK and 21% to Europe. 

The primary drivers of relocation are higher salaries (71%), better job opportunities (65%), lifestyle changes (53%), and cost of living (38%). 

Interest in Australians relocating to New Zealand has increased this year to 17% (up from 2% in 2025). 

Shay comments: ”The strength of interest in Australia underscores how interconnected the two labour markets have become. For many professionals, relocation is no longer aspirational, it is a strategic financial and career decision. 

New Zealand employers must recognise that they are competing not just locally, but internationally. Organisations that create compelling career pathways, competitive remuneration and flexible work models will be better positioned to retain talent in an increasingly borderless market.” 

About the Salary Guide: The Robert Walters 2026 Salary Guide provides a comprehensive overview of hiring intentions, salary trends, skills shortages, and workforce mobility across New Zealand. With insights from over 2,300 respondents, the guide highlights how businesses and employees are navigating an evolving labour market shaped by cost-of-living pressures, technological adoption, and mobility opportunities.

About Robert Walters:  

With more than 3,100 people in 30 countries, Robert Walters delivers recruitment consultancy, staffing, recruitment process outsourcing and managed services across the globe. From traditional recruitment and staffing to end-to-end talent management, our consultants are experts at matching highly skilled people to permanent, contract and interim roles across all professional disciplines. 

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Housing Market – Subdued start to 2026 as NZ housing market begins rebuilding confidence – Cotality

Source: Cotality

New Zealand’s property market has started 2026 in a subdued fashion with little movement in prices and lower sales transactions despite improved affordability, more favourable mortgage rates and a gradually strengthening economy.

The Cotality NZ February Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows national median property values fell a modest -0.3% over the three months to January, taking values 17.5% below the 2022 peak. Auckland and Wellington continued to underperform, while markets such as Dunedin and Invercargill were more resilient in January. Parts of Canterbury also remain relatively stronger than elsewhere.

Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the flat performance in property values may disappoint some vendors, but it offers improved opportunities for buyers.

“The predictability of current conditions is reassuring for buyers, who are continuing to adjust to the recent experience of stable prices and lower mortgage rates,” Mr Davidson said.

“With affordability gradually improving and employment conditions set to strengthen slowly this year, there’s a growing sense of cautious optimism, even if the recovery will be measured rather than sharp. Debt to income ratio caps remain important to watch.”
Cotality data shows first home buyers’ market share dipped in January from 28.3% in Q4 to 26.2%, however Mr Davidson said the number of deals occurring remained strong. “This was a slightly smaller share of a bigger pie.”
 
Mortgaged multiple property owners, including ‘Mum and Dad’ investors, were also a steady influence in the market likely due to lower interest rates and reduced cashflow top-ups on rental properties.

Softer sales in January likely a blip in upwards trend

January sales volumes, measured across both private deals and real estate agents, were -10.7% below the same month in 2025, marking only the third fall in the past 33 months.
Mr Davidson was unconcerned about the sluggish start to the year, because there’s a suspicion that some deals may have been rushed through into December (which saw strong growth), artificially subduing the figures for January.
“If you take December and January together, the upwards trend remained in place. We’d expect to see more sales growth activity in 2026 on the back of reduced mortgage rates and a recovering economy,” he said.
“Our Buyer Classification data also showed hints of more activity from relocating owner-occupiers, or movers. It’s early days and not a trend yet. But a slowly recovering economy could lift movers’ confidence to trade up, reinforcing the prospect of more housing activity this year.”

Rents reset after years of growth

New Zealand’s rental market has softened as net migration has fallen sharply and the number of properties available to rent remains elevated. With rents already stretched relative to incomes and wage growth easing, Mr Davidson said there is limited scope for further increases and that recent falls, while rare, reflect a reset after a period of very strong growth.

The MBIE bonds data shows in the three months to December the median national rent was 0.8% lower than the same period a year earlier. Wellington recorded one of the most significant changes in median rent, down about 10% to $582 a week. Hamilton and Tauranga have also recorded declines, while Auckland has edged slightly lower. Christchurch and Dunedin have held up better with modest growth recorded.
“Rents rose quickly when migration was surging and supply was tight. Now there are more listings, population growth has slowed, and tenants simply don’t have the capacity to keep absorbing large increases,” he said.
“It’s hard to see a sharp rebound from here. The more likely path is a period of flat or only very modest growth while the market adjusts.”

Confidence slowly rebuilding

As lower mortgage rates and improved affordability begin to provide some confidence for both buyers and sellers, Mr Davidson said it was likely behaviour would shift, activity would improve and 2026 would be a year of gradual growth for sales and prices.
“Affordability has improved to its best position in several years, mortgage rates have eased, and listings are gradually drifting lower. Those factors combined are helping to steady the market and should support a lift in sales activity through 2026,” he said.
“Other considerations include borrowers who are rolling off higher fixed rates onto cheaper loans, which will help free up cashflow for some households and should the labour market slowly gather steam as expected, that sets the scene for modest price growth rather than a sharp rebound.”
The Cotality NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack, February 2025 provides the latest breakdown of sales, listings, mortgage lending activity, buyer classification, property values, rental trends, and economic indicators.

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Home Finance – ASB announces Kāinga Ora First Home Loan offering to help Kiwi into their first home

Source: ASB

ASB Bank will now offer the Kāinga Ora First Home Loan, marking another step in the bank’s commitment to making home ownership accessible for more New Zealanders.

The First Home Loan is designed for people who can afford regular mortgage repayments but are finding it difficult to save a 20% deposit. Instead of the standard deposit, eligible buyers can purchase their first home with just 5%, with the loan underwritten by Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities.

ASB Executive General Manager Personal Banking Adam Boyd says “Home ownership is a cornerstone of financial wellbeing and security for many New Zealanders. This loan helps to get more people into their own homes without the challenge of saving a large deposit while managing everyday expenses, like rent.”

“By offering the First Home Loan, we’re helping to break down one of the biggest barriers to homeownership and opening doors for more New Zealanders to create their future and put down roots in their communities.”

“We’re committed to walking alongside our customers through one of the biggest financial decisions they’ll make. As well as the Kainga Ora First Home Loan, we have a team of trained specialist lenders to help customers on their journey,” says Adam Boyd.  

Eligible customers who have been contributing to KiwiSaver for at least three years may also be able to withdraw their savings to put towards their home purchase and will be eligible for ASB’s First Home Buyer cashback offer.

For more information about ASB’s First Home Loan offering and full eligibility criteria, visit here: https://www.asb.co.nz/home-loans-mortgages/buying-first-home/first-home-loan.html

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BusinessNZ – Better employment law will support job growth

Source: BusinessNZ

The Employment Relations Amendment Bill will help restore balance, certainty and common sense to New Zealand’s employment framework, BusinessNZ says.
Director of Advocacy Catherine Beard says the Bill, which passed its third reading last night, addresses real-world issues facing employers and workers, and supports a more flexible and confident economy.
“Clear and workable employment settings are essential to business confidence and job growth. The amendments address areas of employment law which have been caught up in recent debate – including the status of contractors in platform-based work arrangements.
“For example, recent court cases have found that four Uber drivers are in-fact full time employees – due to their individual circumstances. The issue is platform work opportunities like the ones we have now wouldn’t have come about if the platform operators were made to shoulder all the costs and commitments associated with full time employment.
“If we want to keep new enterprise and the ensuing benefits consumers enjoy, we must make sure the model can continue to work. We hope the Government has done enough with this legislation to make it clear to the courts and potential claimants that they can’t keep trying to break the model.”
The Bill also amends situations where workers dismissed for serious misconduct have up until now been able to receive financial compensation through the personal grievance process.
“Most New Zealanders understand that serious wrongdoing at work comes with consequences. Removing automatic financial rewards, for instance by penalising the employer for small procedural errors, restores fairness and reinforces accountability.
“Overall, The Bill moves employment law closer to the realities of modern work, while maintaining core protections. This is something BusinessNZ has been advocating for, for a long time. These changes will reduce administrative requirements and provide greater flexibility for employers and employees when agreeing employment terms.”
The BusinessNZ Network including BusinessNZ, EMA, Business Central and Business South, represents and provides services to thousands of businesses, small and large, throughout New Zealand.
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Annual food prices increase 4.6 percent – Selected price indexes: January 2026 – Stats NZ news story and information release

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Births to under-25s decline to record low proportion – Births and deaths: Year ended December 2025 (including abridged period life table) – Stats NZ news story and information release

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Legislation – Dark day for workers as Parliament passes bill that strips away job security – PSA

Source: PSA

Parliament has just passed the most extreme anti-worker legislation since the notorious Employment Contracts Act of 1991, stripping away protections that have been the foundation of fair employment for decades.
“The Employment Relations Amendment Bill effectively introduces fire at will, leaving New Zealand workers more vulnerable than at any time in the past 30 years,” said Fleur Fitzsimons, National Secretary for the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi.
“This is a disgraceful power grab by employers that will pile more pressure on families already struggling with the cost-of-living crisis this Government promised to fix.
“Workers can now be sacked at will with employers able to undermine personal grievance protections even when their own conduct is clearly unreasonable.
“This law change will radically change every workplace in New Zealand. Workers can be unjustifiably dismissed and walk away with nothing.
“How does threatening people's jobs help families cope with higher prices and a weak job market? It shows how heartless this Government is – prioritising the profits of business over the wellbeing of working New Zealanders and their families.”
The changes will also affect the quality of public services New Zealanders rely on.
“Insecure workers means insecure services. When teachers, health workers, and other public servants face constant job insecurity, it undermines their ability to deliver the quality services New Zealanders deserve.
“This law will drive down wages and accelerate the exodus of skilled workers offshore to countries that value their expertise and provide job security.”
“Supporters of this law change talk about 'labour market flexibility.' But flexibility is not evenly shared.
“For large employers, it means more power. For workers, it means uncertainty – wondering whether a minor mistake could cost them their job, or whether a new contract quietly removes protections they once relied on.
“Just like in 1991, with the Employment Contracts Act, business lobby groups are the strongest supporters of these reforms while workers face losing their jobs, reduced protections and weaker bargaining power.”
Latest attack in Government's war on workers
The bill is the latest in a series of attacks on working New Zealanders by the Coalition Government:
– Axed Fair Pay Agreements
– Reinstated 90-day fire at will
– Scrapped pay equity for more than150,000 women workers
– Suppressed minimum wage increases
– Proposing to cut back sick leave for part-time workers
“The changes made today continue the shift of power in one direction only – strengthening the hand of large employers while leaving workers more exposed in an already fragile economy,” said Fitzsimons.
“This Government's priorities are clear: landlords and big business are in but working New Zealanders and their families are out.
“Come the election in November, the PSA will be reminding voters of the choices the Coalition parties have made to put the interests of business ahead of working families.”
ENDS
Background Employment Relations Amendment Bill
In summary, the changes will:
– mean workers who are legally unfairly dismissed will have no proper remedies if they have contributed to the situation, however minor.
– allow employers to fire at will workers who are unjustifiably dismissed and earn more than $200,000 – they cannot access a personal grievance process for unjustified dismissal.
– remove the provision that automatically enrols new employees in collective agreements for 30 days. This means new workers will risk being exposed to 90-day fire-at-will trials before understanding the protections offered by collective agreements.
– allow employers to deem workers contractors removing their right to holiday and sick pay and means they can be fired at will – the law change written by multi-national ride share company Uber.
The Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi is Aotearoa New Zealand's largest trade union, representing and supporting more than 95,000 workers across central government, state-owned enterprises, local councils, health boards and community groups.