Source: Earth Sciences New Zealand
Earth Sciences New Zealand's Seasonal Climate Outlook for Autumn 2026:
Highlights:
- Seasonal air temperatures for March-May 2026 are most likely to be above average for the north and west of the North Island, near average for the east of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island, and near or above average for the west of the South Island.
- Rainfall totals for March-May are most likely to be above normal in the north and east of the North Island. Near normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the west of the North Island and east of the South Island, while near normal rainfall is expected in the north of the South Island. Below normal rainfall is most likely for the west of the South Island.
- There is an elevated risk of tropical-influenced weather systems bringing significant rainfall to parts of the North Island, especially at intervals in March and April.