Covering period of Monday 9th – Friday 13th February
– Largely settled start to the week for northern and central New Zealand, but rain for the West Coast and far south
– Swing to warmer-than-average temperatures for many on Thursday
– Widespread rain arriving at the end of the working week
It’s looking like a classic summer setup for much of the country this week, with largely settled weather for northern and central parts, and a swing to hotter than average temperatures later in the week. Friday brings a change, however, with widespread rain arriving to dampen things before the weekend.
Dry days are set to dominate from Northland down to Christchurch to start the week. Summer heating brings the odd shower popping up inland in the afternoons, and we might even see a lightning spark or two up in the ranges of Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, but for most people there will be plenty of chances to get out and about.
MetService meteorologist Silvia Martino says, “With sea-surface temperatures around much of the North Island’s coastline warmer than average, it’s the perfect time to take advantage of the long summer evenings and squeeze in a swim after school or work.”
Things aren’t quite so sunny for western and southern parts of the South Island, though, with rain sweeping through on Tuesday, and lingering into Wednesday for the West Coast. MetService has issued a Heavy Rain Watch for Tuesday’s rain in Fiordland, with a moderate chance of being upgraded to a Warning.
Summer returns mid-week, with sunny skies, hot days, and humid nights for much of the country. Afternoon temperatures in the high twenties are expected on Thursday, and some places in Wairarapa and Canterbury might even crack 30°C, 6 or 7°C above average for this time of year.
“It could get uncomfortably hot later in the week, with several spots in the lower North Island set to approach or exceed their heat alert thresholds, and overnight temperatures in the high teens not allowing time for recovery. Now’s the time to make a plan: think about timing outdoor activities away from the hottest parts of the day, or shifting under cover if you have to be outside, and leave plenty of time for shade and water breaks,” advises Martino.
As we head towards the weekend things look quite different, with rain affecting most of the country on Friday, and heavy rain possible. Keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts and MetService’s Severe Weather Outlook for more details.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.